The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates By: Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D. Mitchell Bartholomew Jennifer Mathwig Randy Heinrich, Ph.D. The Rodel Community Scholars Arizona State University at the West Campus

Research Questions Are there differences in the developmental trajectories of high school graduates compared to high school dropouts? If so, where do these differences occur developmentally in time and across which variables? If differences do exist developmentally in time and across variables which variables exhibit the greatest differences between high school graduates and dropouts? Of the variables that exhibit the greatest differences between high school graduates and dropouts which of these variables accounts for the most variance for dropping out of high school? Do high school graduates and dropouts academically perform in the classroom with equal rigor parallel to standardized testing?

Method of Study Obtained familial, disciplinary, and educational data All data were from student K-12 files Partnered with County Juvenile Probation Office for official data Sampled 4 cohorts ( ) Randomly selected 60 graduates and 60 dropouts from 4 cohorts n=119 (one student was disqualified from study – no data) n represents approximately 25% of total population of 4 cohorts Examined the longitudinal developmental trajectory of both graduates and dropouts across time and all variables of study. Independent t-tests examined mean differences between groups Regression Analysis examined the predictive nature of variables between high school dropouts and graduates

Family & Demographics 0=Married, Female, Born in AZ, and Caucasian 1=Divorced, Male, Not born in AZ, and all other ethnic backgrounds

Family & Demographics

Vocational Courses 0=Yes, 1=No

Non-Core Courses 1 st & 2 nd Semester 9 th Grade

Retained K-8? 0=Yes, 1=No

Absenteeism K-8

Total Absence Days K-8

Qualitative Reading Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Reading Grades 1-8

Qualitative Spelling Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Spelling Grades 1-5

Qualitative English Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative English Grades 1-8

Qualitative Writing Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Writing Grades 1-5

Qualitative Math Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Math Grades 1-8

Qualitative Social Studies Grades K-2 Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2 nd Grade

Quantitative Social Studies Grades 2-8

Qualitative Science Grades K-2 Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade

Quantitative Science Grades 2-8

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Reading Scores

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Math Scores

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Language Scores

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Vocabulary Scores

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Read Comp/Critical Analysis Scores

Stanford Grades 5-8 NCE Problem Solving Strategies

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Mechanics/Usage of Language 0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Interpretation of Reading/Language 0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average

Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Reading – Grades 1-6

Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Math – Grades 2-6

Grade Point Average Grades 9-12

Grade Level Dropped Out of High School? High School Dropouts exited school at grade level 10.43

High School English 1-4 Grades

Other High School English Data Highest English Course Taken Grade in Highest English Course Taken

Other High School Math Data 0=Pre-Algebra, 1=Algebra 1, 2=Geometry, 3=Algebra 2, 4=Trigonometry, 5=Calculus

Grade in Highest High School Math Course Taken?

Personal Data 0=No, 1=Yes

Personal Data 0=No, 1=Yes

Did the Student Have Discipline Issues? 0=No, 1=Yes

Grade First Identified as Discipline Problem?

Was Student Placed in Diversion Programs, Standard Probation, or Intense Probation? 0=No, 1=Yes

First Statistically Significant Differences Between High School Graduates & Dropouts Absenteeism – Kindergarten Reading – Kindergarten Spelling – 2 nd Grade English – 2 nd Grade Writing – Kindergarten Math – Kindergarten Social Studies – 3 rd Grade Science – 4 th Grade Stanford 6 – All strands of test Iowa Basic Skills Test – 3 rd Grade Reading & Math All High School variables from 9 th grade 1 st semester

10 Largest Statistical Differences Between Graduates & Dropouts 1.Did they take a foreign language? 2.GPA 9 th Grade 1 st Semester 3.Did they have discipline issues? 4.7 th Grade Reading grade 5.8 th Grade English grade 6.8 th Grade Absenteeism 7.7 th Grade Math grade 8.Total Non-Core classes taken in 9 th Grade 9.Did they participate in extra curricular activities? 10.Were they retained?

Which Top 10 Variables Have Most Predictive Power? 1.Foreign Language 2.English 8 th Grade 3.Absenteeism 8 th Grade 4.Total Non-Core Classes 9 th Grade Year 5.Extra Curricular Activities These 5 variables account for 78% of the variance of high school dropouts

Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing SubjectDropouts Graduates Iowa 1 st Grade Reading st Grade Reading Grade Iowa 6 th Grade Reading th Grade Reading Grade Dropouts perform significantly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 1 st grade reading. Whereas, graduates perform significantly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. The same holds true for dropouts in 6 th grade, however the margin is not significant. Finally, while dropouts make slight improvements in their classroom grades they decrease significantly in their standardized testing over time. Standardized Values

Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing SubjectDropouts Graduates Stanford 5 th Grade Math th Grade Math Grade Stanford 8 th Grade Math th Grade Math Grade Dropouts perform slightly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 5 th grade math. Whereas, graduates perform slightly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. As time progresses graduates achieve with equal rigor on standardized testing and in the classroom, whereas dropouts significantly achieve less in the classroom overtime compared to their standardized testing ability. Not only do dropouts decrease in their classroom and standardized performances over time, but the gap in classroom performance becomes further behind their standardized testing ability. Standardized Values

Key Findings of Study Academic differences between high school dropouts and graduates seem to surface well before students enter high school. In fact, according to these results, differences between the two groups are profound even in Kindergarten. While the two groups appear to start out with measurable differences, academic differences seem to diverge even more in middle school grades The differences between the two groups seem to be most apparent in: Attendance and absenteeism in middle school Standardized testing Discipline records (probation and diversion) Aspects of family life such as presence of siblings and parents’ marital status Student characteristics such as ELL and SPED status, SES and mobility High school course choices (registering for core vs. non core classes) Measurable gaps in GPA across all grades (K-12)

Take 5 1.Pre-Kindergarten 2.Middle School 3.Attendance 4.Class choices 9 th grade year 5.Student/Family Demographics

Conclusion The analysis of this study provided a better understanding of the long-term impacts of early childhood educational progress on high school retention. By doing so, germane areas of success and failure throughout a students academic tenure were identified, informing educators about appropriate implementation strategies for education programs and interventions that could increase the likelihood of high school graduation.

Thank You! Any Questions ?