1 Contextual Value Added and Data For Dummies The mystery explained

2 Objectives – to understand Contextual Value added – how it is calculated and factors which affect it. Contextual Value added – how it is calculated and factors which affect it. Performance descriptors “good”, “satisfactory” and “unsatisfactory”. Performance descriptors “good”, “satisfactory” and “unsatisfactory”. How Ofsted form judgements on performance data. How Ofsted form judgements on performance data.

3 Objectives – to understand Key Lessons from data analysis – self evaluation Key Lessons from data analysis – self evaluation What are we going to do about it? What are we going to do about it? Links with Performance Management and improvement plans (school and subject) Links with Performance Management and improvement plans (school and subject)

4 School Context

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10 School Context “bulge” of average students

11 School Context “top slicing” of most able students

12 Value Added Value added is a prediction based on prior attainment (in SATs (standard assessment tests) at the end of primary school (key stage 2 or KS2) Value added is a prediction based on prior attainment (in SATs (standard assessment tests) at the end of primary school (key stage 2 or KS2) How does progress compare with the average progress made by students with the same prior attainment How does progress compare with the average progress made by students with the same prior attainment

13 Value Added - Definitions Attainment, progress and achievement Attainment, progress and achievement Attainment – outcomes at KS4 (age 16) compared with the national averages Attainment – outcomes at KS4 (age 16) compared with the national averages Achievement – how well a student does compared with his or her starting point Achievement – how well a student does compared with his or her starting point Progress – complicated but is a mix of achievement and attainment – a student can achieve well but make limited progress towards national attainment levels ( Ofsted are more interested in progress) Progress – complicated but is a mix of achievement and attainment – a student can achieve well but make limited progress towards national attainment levels ( Ofsted are more interested in progress)

14 Contextual Value Added Student Outcomes at Age 16 (end of KS4) Student Characteristics School Characteristics Prior attainment

15 Socioeconomic and Demographic – some factors included in CVA Ethnicity – Gender – Age within year group Ethnicity – Gender – Age within year group Special Educational Needs – in care – mobility Special Educational Needs – in care – mobility Deprivation indicator – free school meals Deprivation indicator – free school meals English as second language English as second language Prior attainment (in English and Mathematics) Prior attainment (in English and Mathematics)

16 Expected Progress - Satisfactory

17 Progress – Value Added

18 Progress – Value Added “measure of value added”

19 Progress – Less than Predicted “measure of under performance”

20 Progress – Broadly Average Range

21 Progress

22 Progress Seriously underachieving students

23 Progress Above line is positive value

24 Progress – Broadly Average Range The middle 50% of children nationally fall into this range

25 Progress – “Good” Value Added

26 Progress – “Good” Value Added Progress made by children in top 25% nationally

27 Progress – “Unsatisfactory” Value Added Poor progress made by children in bottom 25% nationally

28 Secondary Schools – relative performance

29 Secondary Schools – relative performance Each 1% strip contains about 33 schools

30 Secondary Schools – relative performance “ Median” position – comparing all schools by progress and achievement

31 Secondary Schools – relative performance 50% (percentile) is given a CVA score of 1000

32 Secondary Schools – middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average performance”

33 Secondary Schools – middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average performance” Moving towards the “good” schools

34 Secondary Schools – middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average performance” Moving towards the “unsatisfactory” schools

35 Secondary Schools – relative performance Above 25% are the “good” schools

36 Secondary Schools – relative performance Top end – the “outstanding” schools

37 Secondary Schools – relative performance Below 25% are the “unsatisfactory” schools

38 Secondary Schools – relative performance Bottom “very weak” schools – possible “special measures”

39 Secondary Schools – relative performance

40 Conversion of Grades to Points for Calculations GCSE Grades GCSE Points GCSE Grades GCSE Points A*58D34 A52E28 B46F22 C40G16

41 Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

42 Subject Performance at GCSE in % predicted to get A-C, 76% achieved = significant value added = “good” 8% more students got A-A* than expected – value added but not significant (top end of satisfactory)

43 Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

44 CVA – Individual Students This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade C This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade C Total points score = 320 Total points score = 320 This is the FFT B (median) predictions This is the FFT B (median) predictions He gets 320 points He gets 320 points This student achieves 0 value added points. This student achieves 0 value added points.

45 CVA – Individual Students This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade B from prior attainment. This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade B from prior attainment. Total points score = 384 Total points score = 384 This is the FFT B (median) predictions This is the FFT B (median) predictions She gets 394 points She gets 394 points What is her value added score? What is her value added score?

46 CVA – Individual Students She is a girl and she gets free school meals (FSM) She is a girl and she gets free school meals (FSM) Prediction from prior attainment = 384 points Prediction from prior attainment = 384 points Add 14 points (female) = 398 Add 14 points (female) = 398 Subtract 22 points for FSM Subtract 22 points for FSM Total prediction = 376 Total prediction = 376 Value added = 18 points Value added = 18 points