L-1 Scenario Compilation

L-2 Peace Keeping (Zaire) U.N. Secretary General asks Balteria for 100 soldiers to join multinational force in Eastern Zaire/Rwanda Mission to protect relief agencies Duration: 90 days Chance of organized violence considered minimal ZAIRE

L-3 Peace Keeping (Afghanistan) U.N. Secretary General requests 200 soldiers for a peace-keeping mission in Afghanistan. Mission is to protect a “corridor of peace” in area near Kabul to allow Red Crescent to distribute food. A U.N. force of 5,000 will maintain integrity of corridor for 120 days. Balteria Ambassador to U.N. advises Foreign Ministry that this will be a dangerous mission.

L-4 Violation of Territorial Waters Balterian Coast Guard seizes two Swedish fishing trawlers Swedish government demands release of crew, vessels, compensation for loss of catch –Claims ships were on high seas –Says EU rules permitted them to fish –But video shows ships were definitely within Balterian waters Swedish government has only fragile majority in its parliament –Unemployment in fishery industry is high Sweden asks EU for sanctions –Also threatens to oppose Balterian membership in EU

L-5 Leaflet Distribution A circular has recently been disseminated –Allegedly drafted by the Continued Independence Movement (CIM) –Calls for a popular uprising to rid the country of “cowardly politicians” –Promises participation by Home Guards –Major goal is to rid country of foreign minorities A few related newspaper articles One TV program A speech in Parliament denouncing the leaflet Interior Ministry –Has little information on the source of the leaflet –Anticipates little public interest

L-6 Large Arms Shipment Seized Balterian police uncover two separate arms smuggling rings in two weeks –Several carloads of infantry and light anti-tank weapons –Apparently part of a scheme to smuggle Russian arms through Balteria –Arms apparently destined for IRA-UK Embassy indicates strong concern Russian government denies involvement –But offers little cooperation in investigation –Arrested ringleaders say local Russian army commanders are involved Balterian police have little information –Have arrests solved the problem, or –Is there a much larger effort to smuggle Russian arms through Balteria?

L-7 Territorial Disputes Flare Balteria has unresolved border disagreements with both Baltic neighbors –Result of Soviet invasions of 1939 Balteria unilaterally granted Exxon drilling rights Exxon announces preliminary findings that oil may exist in both disputed areas –Wants agreement on drilling rights, royalties before more extensive testing –Asks for reply within 60 days Both Baterian neighbors denounce “unilateral” action by Balteria –Say any rights disputed areas would be “null and void” –Threaten unspecified retaliation

L-8 Violent Demonstrations Kurdish community has grown in recent years –Balteria on route from Kurdistan to Sweden –Swedes have been tightening border controls Situation in Balteria –No work permits for Kurds –Inability to get them to leave country –About 1,800 in country now, and growing by 300 to 400 annually Kurds have taken to the streets demanding more work and permanent resident visas Demonstration turning more violent: attack police, burn vehicles, and disrupt transportation

L-9 Nuclear Material Smuggling Two Balterians and three Russians recently arrested after attempting to sell a kilo of enriched uranium to an undercover policeman Actually produced only a vial of “green mercury” Upon arrest –They claimed that uranium was hidden in the capital –If not released from custody the radioactive material will place the population in danger