THE GLOBAL ACTORS AND THEIR RELATIONS PART 2 Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

“Everybody has accepted by now that change is unavoidable. But that still implies that change is like death and taxes—it should be postponed as long as possible and no change would be vastly preferable. But in a period of upheaval, such as the one we are living in, change is the norm.” Peter Drucker, management professor Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Marching for Change Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Chapter 4: Rivalries and Relations Among the Great Powers Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

“Great powers fear each other. They regard each other with suspicion, and they worry that war may be in the offing. They anticipate danger. There is little room for trust….” John Mearsheimer, realist political scientist Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Choice and Consequence Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

 Long-cycle theory: Rise and fall of the leading global power  Hegemon: A single powerful state that exercises predominant influence over global actors  Hegemonic stability theory: Global dominance of a hegemon is necessary to provide the order required for international commerce and military security  Enduring rivalries among great powers 7 The Quest for World Leadership

The Evolution of Great Power Rivalry for World Leadership, 1495 ‒ 2025 Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Might Makes Right Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The First World War  Causes Global level: Structuralism State level: Nationalism Individual level: Rational Choice  Consequences Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Road to World War I  By the beginning of the 20th century, there was intense competition among European powers.  Triple Alliance Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Italy  Triple entente Britain, France, Russia  Serbian nationalists’ assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in July,

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning World War I: A Guide to the Major Players  Alliance Powers: Germany, Austria-Hungary Ottoman Empire, Italy (until 1915)  Entente Powers: Great Britain, France, Russia, United States, Italy (after 1915) 12

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning World War I Consequences  Millions of deaths  Three multi-ethnic empires collapsed— Austrian-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman  Creation of many new states in Europe  Independence of Republic of Ireland  Bolshevik overthrow in Russia  Versailles Treaty and punishment of Germany  Rise of communism  Strong anti-war sentiment in U.S. and western Europe 13

The Consequences of World War I

Territorial Changes in Europe Following World War I Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Second World War: A Guide to the Major Players  Axis Powers: Germany, Italy, Japan  Allied Powers: France, Great Britain, Soviet Union, United States Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Second World War  Causes  Road to War  Using Three Analytic Levels Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Causes of World War II  Domestic currents in Germany: Treaty of Versailles provisions inflame Germany Fascism and Nazi grip on Germany German irredentism  International currents: Global economic collapse 18

Proximate Causes on the Road to War  The political rise of Adolf Hitler and his political party, the Nazis  Inaction by France, Britain, Soviet Union  appeasement  Japanese colonialism  US isolationism Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning World War II Redraws the Map of Europe 20

World War II Redraws the Map of Europe

Underlying Causes of WW II at Three Analytic Levels  Global level: Structuralism Multipolarity—the distribution of global power to three or more major actors Political Economy—the intersection of politics and economics  State level: Nationalism Collective psychological forces Irredentism Fascism Ideology Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Underlying Causes at Three Analytic Levels (continued)  State level: Nationalism Collective psychological forces Irredentism—reclamation of lost territory Fascism—far-right ideology that promotes extreme nationalism Ideology—set of core philosophical beliefs  Individual level: Rational Choice Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Rise of Hitler and German Nationalism Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Consequences of World War II  Border changes in Europe  System change: end to great- power rivalries in Europe  Iron curtain in eastern Europe  Beginning of decolonization  United Nations 25

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning The Consequences of World War II (continued)  Yalta Conference: the 1945 summit meeting of the Allied victors  Bipolarity: condition in which power is concentrated in two players, each serving as a “pole”  U.S.-Soviet rivalry  the Cold War 26

Allies or New Rivals? Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Cold War  World War II changed the global system to one dominated by two superpowers. Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Causes and Evolutionary Course of the Cold War  Global Level: Realism Power transition propels both states to top of global power hierarchy Struggle for spheres of influence  State Level: Ideological incompatibility Domino theory  Individual Level: Misperception Mirror images—viewing an opponent as one’s opposite 29

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning Key Events in the Evolution of the U.S.–Soviet Relationship During the Cold War 1949 ‒

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning Confrontation, 1947 ‒ 1962  Kennan’s “long telegram”  Containment: a strategy to prevent Soviet expansion  Truman doctrine: declaration by President Truman that US foreign policy supports people resisting subjugation by communists  Khrushchev pursued a policy of peaceful coexistence  Cuban missile crisis,

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning From Coexistence to Détente, 1963 ‒ 1978  MAD: Mutual assured destruction  Kennedy and tension reductions  Détente: Relaxation of tensions Policy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger Linkage—cooperation to rewards SALT talks Cultural exchanges, trade agreements 32

Easing Tensions: US-Soviet Détente Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

From Renewed Confrontation to Rapprochement, 1979 ‒ 1991  Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, 1979  Carter Doctrine  Reagan Doctrine  Rapprochement –reconciliation, a diplomatic policy to reestablish cordiality 34

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning From Renewed Confrontation to Rapprochement, 1979 ‒ 1991 (continued)  Gorbachev  Foreign policies: withdrawal from eastern Europe, Afghanistan, Cuba; INF, START, and CFE treaties  Domestic policies: Glasnost—openness and political freedom Perestroika—economic restructuring 35

Contending Interpretations of the Causes of the Cold War’s End Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Consequences of the Cold War  End of communism  “End of history”  Emergence of U.S. hegemony  More elusive security threats Rogue states Terrorism 37

The Post-Cold War  Unipolarity—refers to the concentration of power in a single preponderant state. Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

America’s Unipolar Moment  Caused by end of Cold War  Soft power Intangible, versus hard power  Unilateralism—independence Isolationism Hegemonic leadership Selective engagement  Imperial overstretch? 39

The Rise of the Rest? From Unipolarity to Multipolarity  United States currently the dominant military and political power  China, Japan, India, the European Union and possibly Russia are potential challengers for hegemon role Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

The Rise of the Rest? From Unipolarity to Multipolarity  Multipolar distributions of power can lead to war  Power transitions  Uni-multipolar—a global system with a dominant power, but key issues require multilateral cooperation Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

A Resurgent Russia? Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Looking Ahead: The Future of Great Power Relations  Many observers sense shifts in global distribution of power are underfoot.  US still valuable as leader, politically and militarily  More actors join the US at the top economically. Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Global Prosperity Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Transitions in Wealth and Economic Power? Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

A New Global Hegemon? Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

 The US-China relationship could pursue polarization and rivalry or interdependence and cooperation  Concert—a cooperative agreement among great powers on managing the system  Multilateralism—a cooperative approach to manage shared problems A New Global Hegemon? Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

Questions for Discussion 1.In your opinion, can or should the U.S. attempt global leadership? What are your arguments? 2.Do relations with and among Middle Eastern nations dominate world politics today? 3.Who is likely to be the next hegemon? How will this affect the Middle East? 48

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning Questions for Critical Thinking 1.In what ways did the causes of World War I differ from those of World War II? 2.In what ways is the individual level of analysis useful in explaining the outbreaks of the two world wars? 3.How does the global level of analysis explain the twentieth-century changes in the structure of the international system? 49

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning Questions for Critical Thinking (continued) 4.What three individuals had the greatest impact on the international system in the twentieth century? Why? 5.What factors help explain the end of the Cold War? 6.What are potential major changes in the structure of the international system in the twenty-first century? 50

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning Web Links  The World War I Document Archive The World War I Document Archive  The Avalon Project—World War II The Avalon Project—World War II  Cold War Cold War  Race for the Superbomb Race for the Superbomb 51