Exam 2 Study Guide Theories of Deduction (Chapter 5) –Pragmatic reasoning schemas –Social exchange theory –Heuristic/ relevance theory

More study guide Hypothesis Testing (Chapter 6) –Wason’s task –Difference between deduction & induction –Def. of hypothesis + def. of exemplar –Positive & negative exemplars –Confirming & disconfirming –Heuristics for hypothesis testing General hyp., counterfactual hyp., multiple hyps., extreme exemplars, disconfirm, form categories

More study guide Induction (Chapter 7) –General and specific induction –Descriptive and explanatory induction –Abduction –Theories of health behavior Health belief model, theory of reasoned action, social cognitive theory, transtheoretical model

More study guide Chapter 8 (Judging probability) –Def. of judgment –Heuristics Anchoring and adjustment heuristic –Overconfidence

Judgment Estimating the value of something –Predict your grade on a test –Judge the value of a home to you –How much you are willing to pay for a used car

Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic that people use to make judgments Exposed to an “anchor” = a number or value provided by somebody else sometimes without any justification Then, sometimes “adjust” our own estimate based on the anchor

example Buying a new car –At dealership the first “estimate” of the value of the car is the sticker price Easy for you to see the posted value of the car –Sticker price becomes an “anchor” which may cause to you to “adjust” your estimate of the value of the car upward To avoid, you generate your own “anchor” by researching the value of the car in advance

More Lowballing : provide an initial, artificially low, value or estimate of the value Highballing: provide an initial, artificially high, value or estimate of the value

overconfidence Estimate of a value (prediction) –E.g., predict letter grade on coming exam Actual values –E.g., actual letter grades on the exam Estimates = actual values (perfectly or well-calibrated) Estimates > actual values (overconfident) Estimates < actual values (underconfident)

Confidence level = either well-calibrated, overconfident, or underconfident People are generally NOT well-calibrated Most studies find that people are overconfident May be some culturally aspect –Studies in Asian countries less likely to find overconfidence