The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

“…the smallpox eradication effort evolved over time in response to the practical realities in the field, the development of new approaches through research, the active involvement of local leadership and peoples, and imaginative quality control measures and supervision. It developed different approaches and strategies adapted to local conditions...” DON HENDERSON, DIRECTOR OF SMALLPOX CAMPAIGN

Behaviours Relations Systems Dynamics Cognitive and operational biases in aid ‘…where machines work well. Such approaches would be ideal where there is a straightforward task to perform, a stable context and operating environment, identical, duplicable products, and compliant, predictable and reliable parts – which includes the human ‘components’...”

“…All malaria programmes were obliged to adhere rigidly to a highly detailed, standardised manual of operations. It mandated identical job descriptions in every country and prescribed specific charts to be displayed on each office wall at each administrative level. The programme was conceived and executed as a military operation to be conducted in an identical manner whatever the battlefield... the premise of the programme was that the needed knowledge and technology was available and that success depended solely on meticulous attention to implementation detail. Research was considered unnecessary and was effectively suspended from the launch of the programme…”

“...The Newtonian model is staggering about the global stage like a mortally wounded Shakespearean actor...”

The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

Organised simplicity Disorganised complexity Organised complexity The problems we face in science and policy

Adaptive Designs and strategies evolve over time System Macro patterns emerge from micro behavior Complex Many interacting agents and organizations of agents The world is rife with ‘complex adaptive systems’

Complexity science helps development scientists better understand systems, networks, behaviours and dynamics Emergent systems Adaptive behaviours Diverse networks Dynamic change

Behaviours Relations Systems Dynamics (Compare to the institutionalised operating assumptions of aid)

The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

SYSTEMS Systems thinking approach to malaria reduction (IWMI) Holistic management of anti-desertification programmes in Zimbabwe (Operation Hope) System dynamics in conflict (UWM) Social ecological systems (Indiana) BEHAVIOURS Agent-based modelling in agriculture (French Development Agency) Agent-based models of national political economy (World Bank) Evolutionary approaches to dealing with malnutrition (Save the Children) Problem-driven iterative adaptation (Harvard, Bank) NETWORKS Complexity, networks and growth (Harvard Center for International Development) Social network analysis of disaster responses (Red Cross) Global economic fragility (IMF) Irrigation and water temple networks in Bali (Santa Fe) DYNAMICS Non-linear epidemiology (Sahel) Emergent education (NIIT, IFC) Mhealth approaches in Africa Scaling up health interventions (Future Health Systems Consortium)

Network analysis: from atomised actors with formal relations to informal, social cliques and groups

Case study: Atlas of Economic Complexity A network-based approach to economic development Networks of productive knowledge condition and shape the development of nations The structure of network explains growth and stagnation Best predictor of national growth available

The product space

Ghana vs Malaysia

BehavioursRelationsSystems Organized simplicity Organised complexity Disorganised complexity Dynamics Distributio n Systems are open, dynamic, interconnected and interdependent. Macro patterns emerge from micro behaviors and interactions What complexity research brings Change is non-linear, unpredictable, with phase transitions, characterized by power laws and discontinuities What complexity research brings Relationships, networks, flows, ties, values, beliefs are vital. Are path dependent and historical Humans are adaptive tinkerers; subject to errors and biases; self-organize and co-evolve with system and each other

Systems are open, dynamic, interconnected and interdependent. Macro patterns emerge from micro behaviors and interactions What sciences of complexity bring Humans are adaptive tinkerers; subject to errors and biases; self-organize and co-evolve with system and each other Relationships, flows, ties, values, beliefs are vital. Are path dependent and historical Change is non-linear, unpredictable, with phase transitions, characterized by power laws and discontinuities BehavioursRelationsSystemsDynamics Systems and problems are closed, static, linear systems; reductionist Individuals use rational deduction; behaviour and action can be specified from top-down Actors can be treated as independent and atomized Change is direct result of actions; proportional, additive and predictable Sciences of simplicity What complex systems research brings to development sciences

Closing thoughts

‘We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.’ ALBERT EINSTEIN

Thank you!