Workshop program ideas and structure Enrico Zio

2 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 2 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 2 The background The risk assessment and risk management fields are challenged by a growing complexity and dimensionality, both with respect to the systems considered and the knowledge available for their characterization and modeling. Is the current framework for risk assessment and management adequate for meeting the challenges we face?

3 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 3 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 3 The « floating » idea Risk assessment and Risk Management need to evolve Strong scientific platform Reflections and discussions on foundational issues and concepts

4 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 4 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 4 The structure PART a) Main obstacles/challenges for development of strong scientific platform PART b): Initiatives/measures (two) to proceed Operatively: development in working groups

5 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 5 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 5 Issues

6 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 6 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 6 Issue 1: Uncertainty

7 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 7 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines PRA 7 K = Beliefs M = Subjective Probability l c K = (Statistical) Data M = Frequentist Probability Issue for discussion 1

8 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 8 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 8 M = Imprecise Probability Random Sets (D-S Theory) Possibility theory K = Beliefs l c K = (Statistical) Data M = Frequentist Probability “Bounded” Probabilistic Risk Analysis Issue for discussion 1 Seeing beyond probabilistic risk assessment

9 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 9 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 9 Seeing beyond probabilistic risk assessment Issue for discussion 1 l c M = ? K = (Statistical) Data M = Frequentist Probability K = Beliefs Signals Precursors Near misses BLACK SWANS PERFECT STORMS Design Basis Accidents Defense in depth Resilience Aven, Pate’-Cornell 2012

10 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 10 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 10 Issue 2: Complexity

11 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 11 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 11 Issue for discussion 2 Risk and vulnerability of critical infrastructures (e.g. electrical grid, transportation network etc.) which are complex systems and often interdependent, i.e. systems of systems (New England Complex Systems Institute, 2005)

12 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 12 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Safety of a critical plant, e.g., a nuclear power plant, exposed to risk from external events, e.g., earthquakes. System-of-Systems analysis of the interdependent infrastructures that support the critical plant. Systems of systems: external events risk assessment

13 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 13 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 13 Obstacles/Challenges

14 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 14 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 14Obstacles/Challenges Lack of consensus on definitions (conceptual and operative) Anchoring on traditional concepts and methods Little permeability of different sectors No incentive from regulatory and industrial community

15 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 15 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 15 Initiatives/Measures

16 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 16 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 16Initiatives/Measures Identification and characterization of interested/involved community (e.g.Technical Committee ESRA) Workshop Special issue Special session at ESREL conferences New formula of School as a moment of exchange, discussion, dissemination