New Opportunities for Public Alerting Michael Gerber National Weather Service Silver Spring, MD Michael Gerber National Weather Service Silver Spring, MD

Overview NWS CAP feeds IPAWS and PLAN/CMAS CAP as an enabler for decision support and alert technologies New collaborative venue for NWS CAP users NWS CAP roadmap Improving alert origination tools for better communicating impact NWS CAP feeds IPAWS and PLAN/CMAS CAP as an enabler for decision support and alert technologies New collaborative venue for NWS CAP users NWS CAP roadmap Improving alert origination tools for better communicating impact 2

NWS Alerts in IPAWS and PLAN/CMAS Television Radio Cell Phone Computer Home Phone Public Signage National Weather Service and other alerting authorities IPAWS Alert Aggregators (PLAN/CMAS) Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)

Collaboration with FEMA on IPAWS/PLAN Bi-weekly meetings Jointly working to address challenges –Minimize desensitization and avoid opt-outs –Coordination on what constitutes an “imminent threat” –Maximizing effectiveness of the 90 character PLAN message (i.e., Does the message drive the recipient to take life saving action?) –Others Bi-weekly meetings Jointly working to address challenges –Minimize desensitization and avoid opt-outs –Coordination on what constitutes an “imminent threat” –Maximizing effectiveness of the 90 character PLAN message (i.e., Does the message drive the recipient to take life saving action?) –Others 4

CAP Opens the Door for New Public Alert Technologies 5 XML-based information standard for public alerting Benefits developers, re-packagers, broadcasters Low cost of entry Programmer friendly - easy to parse and reuse Derive many products from single message Flash Flood Warning Immediate Severe Likely T14:00:00-05: T17:00:00- 05:00 NWS Memphis (Western Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi) Flash Flood Warning issued June 03 at 2:00PM CDT expiring June 03 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Memphis DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR… MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY…TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN , , , , , , , , , , , , Decision Support Tools Smart phones Consumer Navigation Cell phones

Flash Flood Warning Immediate Severe Likely T14:00:00-05: T17:00:00- 05:00 NWS Memphis (Western Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi) Flash Flood Warning issued June 03 at 2:00PM CDT expiring June 03 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Memphis DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR… MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY…TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN 36.20, , , , , , , , , , , , Alert information at its most granular levels Enabler Personalize threat/improve warning response Apps and decision support tools at low COE Using CAP for Decision Support

CAP is Future Friendly 7 Nimble: Can add parameters without breaking third party apps Can include additional parameters for Decision Support Can include real-time info substantiating the alert NWSStormMotionDescription T12:46:00-06: DEG...20KT StormReport ,-76.82:Woodstock, MD:Trees down on I-70 Snow 12 or more inches Examples of Possible Future CAP Parameters

Increase Warning Effectiveness by Personalizing the Threat Works across multiple alerting systems Simplifies task of activating a warning – “Write once, distribute many times” Improves response 8 Link to photo/video demonstrating the call to action “Just in time” training on your TV or cell phone Works across languages Warning effectiveness Example of Possible Future CAP Content

CAP Wiki to Encourage 3 rd Party Development NWS CAP usage guide –Defines each CAP compliant message element Collaborative discussion encouraged Monitored by NWS Receive notification of page changes NWS CAP usage guide –Defines each CAP compliant message element Collaborative discussion encouraged Monitored by NWS Receive notification of page changes 9

NWS Today 10 CAP Message NWS CAP feeds available at

NWS with Next Generation Warning Tool (2013) CAP Message Information Database 11

Future: Better Tools for Communicating Impact value Immediate Expected Future Past value Extreme Severe Moderate Minor value Observed Likely Possible Unlikely value Immediate Expected Future Past value Extreme Severe Moderate Minor value Observed Likely Possible Unlikely 12 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Immediate Severe Likely Today: Pre-assigned from table of NWS alert types Crippling 1/2” snow squall Immediate Severe Likely 2013+: Assigned by forecaster using next generation warning tool

NWS CAP Roadmap 13 Milestone/GoalDate CAP v1.2 Adopted by FEMA for IPAWSSeptember 2010 CAP v1.1 Operational in NWS at alerts.weather.gov/capMarch 2011 NWS CAP guide on public collaborative wiki in preparation for CAP v1.2June 2011 CAP v1.2 (IPAWS Compliant) Experimental in NWSAugust 2011 NWS CAP push to FEMA IPAWS Aggregator in time for CMASNovember 2011 CAP v1.2 Initial Operating CapabilityDecember 2011 Native production of NWS CAP messages using NWS next generation warning tool gives forecasters enhanced control over CAP content) 2013

NWS conducting multi-phased assessment of its dissemination architecture Goal: Create a forward looking dissemination architecture utilizing emerging technology Requesting your input with regard to data services: –Types of data sets required (traditional, XML, etc) –Dissemination methods (e.g. SOAP, API, etc.) –Share best practices of existing dissemination systems –Required operational levels of availability, timeliness, and prioritization –Service levels including expansion of fee-for-service dissemination Make comments/suggestions at Have questions or would like to provide comments via ? Contact: Robert Bunge Chief, Telecommunication Software Branch Telecommunication Operations Center Phone: x NWS seeking comments on dissemination re-architecture

Questions? Contact Information: Mike Gerber 15