1 Modeling risk attitudes Objective: Develop tools to compare alternative courses of action with uncertain outcomes (lotteries or deals) A B $30 -$15 $100.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Modeling risk attitudes Objective: Develop tools to compare alternative courses of action with uncertain outcomes (lotteries or deals) A B $30 -$15 $100 -$40 (0.5)

2 Expected monetary value (EMV) is not a good measure of the value of a deal Play same lottery many times, EMV is a good measure of value of a lottery. Play a lottery once, EMV is not a good measure A B $30 -$1 $2,000 -$1,900 (0.5) EMV(B)>EMV(A), most people prefer A

3 Utility function: risk averse decision-maker xminxmax EMV(A) xmin xmax (0.5) Lottery A Expected utility of lottery A Utility of EMV of lottery A Risk aversion: Expected utility of lottery is less than the utility of sure amount equal to expected monetary value Certain equivalent (CE)

4 How to specify utility function Graph Mathematical function Look-up table

5 Attitudes toward risk EMV(A) xmin xmax Lottery A CE Risk seeking Risk averse Risk neutral Risk averse: CE<EMV(A) Risk neutral: CE=EMV(A) Risk seeking: CE>EMV(A) Risk premium

6 Risk premium of a lottery How much we must pay decision-maker to take lottery A instead of sure amount equal to the expected mean value of the lottery. –Risk premium=EMV(A)-CE –Risk averse decision-maker: Risk premium>0 –Risk neutral decision-maker: Risk premium=0 –Risk seeking decision-maker: Risk premium<0

7 Properties of utility function U(X+Y) not equal to U(X)+U(Y) Can scale utility by a constant and/or add to it another constant without changing the rank order of the alternative courses of action. Can scale utility function in any way you want. Usually, U(best consequence)=1, U(worst consequence)=0 To make a decision, need only part of utility function for region from minimum and maximum amounts Cannot compare utility functions of different decision- makers.

8 Assessment of utility function Assess a decision-maker’s utility by observing what gambles he/she is willing to take Assessment using certainty equivalents Assessment using probabilities

9 Assessment using certainty equivalents xmin xmax (0.5) CE A B Find CE so that decision-maker is indifferent between deals A and B U(CE)=0.5U(xmax)+0.5U(xmin)

10 Assessment using probabilities xmin xmax (p) (1-p) x A B Find probability p so that decision-maker is indifferent between deals A and B U(x)=pU(xmax)+(1-p)U(xmin) If U(xmax)=1 and U(xmin)=0, then U(x)=p

11 Standard types of utility function Exponential -I Logarithmic Square root of x Exponential -II

12 Decreasing risk aversion When we increase payoffs of a deal by the same amount, decision-maker becomes less risk averse $50 -$25 (0.5) A $150 $75 (0.5) B Risk premium of lottery A greater than that of B

13 Decreasing risk aversion Although risk aversion occurs in real life it is not always important to account for it. Only need approximation of utility function to select best alternative