Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information Mike Harrison Climate-Insight Senior Research Associate, OUCE, Oxford University

The Objective  To deliver the best attainable climate information  To deliver information complete with the best attainable potential error information  To deliver information in the form most suitable for users to blend into their decision making processes

The Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)Process Information Sources Information Creation Stage Information collation and interpretation Information Assessment Stage Information distribution Information Delivery Stage

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Process Information Sources Information Creation Stage Information collation and interpretation Information Assessment Stage Information distribution Information Delivery Stage

The Science Issues of Uncertainty Information Sources 1. Model Issues 2. Creation of Ensembles 3. Build of pdf 4. Assessment of quality 5. Stability of outputs Information collation and interpretation 1. Combination of diverse information 2. Treatment of non- conforming information Information distribution 1. Provision of sufficient information 2. Provision of customised information

The Non-Science or Cognitive Issues of Uncertainty Information Sources 1. Bias 2. Overconfidence Information collation and interpretation 1. Overconfidence 2. Availability 3. Belief Persistence 4. Group Conformity 5. Treatment of Non- Conforming Information Information distribution 1. Overconfidence 2. Framing 3. Anchoring 4. User demand and bias

The National Communication/NAPA Process – and other reports Information Sources Information Creation Stage Information collation and interpretation Information Assessment Stage Information distribution Information Delivery Stage

Recent seasonal forecast for Africa from the IRI

Quantitatively calibrated levels of confidence according to the IPCC TerminologyDegree of confidence in being correct Very high confidence At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct High confidence About 8 out of 10 chance Medium confidence About 5 out of 10 chance Low confidence About 2 out of 10 chance Very low confidence About 1 out of 10 chance

Statements from the SPM of the IPCC AR4 SYR There is medium confidence that other effects of regional climate change on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non- climatic drivers. There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction.

Example from a European organisation’s report for a developing country The findings, …, illustrate the dramatic effects of climate change in …. However, they also show that the impacts for the different regions vary widely: ␣ Increase in annual average temperature by 1.1°C by The south of the country will be affected to a far greater extent than the north (1.6°C and 0.9°C respectively) ␣ The number and intensity of droughts will increase ␣ A 28% decline in …’s water resources by The loss of groundwater reserves in particular will become a problem ␣ 20% loss in arable cropland by 2030 ␣ 50% loss of non-irrigated forested areas in southern … ␣ Drastically increased risk of forest fires ␣ Substantial increase in the vulnerability of ecosystems

From a NAPA ␣ Increased water scarcity and reduced water quality – leading to increased hardship on rural livelihoods; ␣ Increased drought frequency, increased temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns – leading to degradation of agricultural lands, soils and terraces; ␣ Deterioration of habitats and biodiversity – leading to expansion of desertification; ␣ Reduced agricultural productivity – leading to increased food insecurity and reduced income generating activities; ␣ Increased sea levels – leading to deteriorationof wetlands, coastal mangrove migration, erosion, infrastructure damage, and seawater groundwater intrusion; ␣ Increased climatic variability – leading to the possibility of spread and growth of vector borne and water borne diseases; and ␣ Impacts on coastal zones – leading to a loss of tourism to the activity due to sea level rise including loss of beaches

A Key Humanitarian Challenge for Climate Scientists  Be honest and fully open in delivering information