Module 2

  1. Why is psychology “fuzzier” than hard sciences?  2. Why do psychologists struggle to be accepted as scientists? (Why not just do theoretical and philosophical work and throw empiricism to the wind?)  3. Why can’t we just rely on intuition and common sense in understanding the workings of the human mind?  4. What does the term “Hindsight is 20/20” mean?  5. How does “Hindsight is 20/20” apply to the scientific method? Stinger

  Why are the answers that flow from the scientific approach more reliable than those based on common sense and intuition?  How do psychologists use the scientific method to construct theories?  The limits of intuition and common sense  Intuition can lead a person astray  Some questions are not intuitive  How big is paper folded 100 times?  How many people need to be in a group in order to have a 50% chance of sharing a birthday?  Notions of common sense err also Thinking Critically With Psychological Science

  Doctors see cause of death as self-evident if presented with both a case study and an autopsy, but have trouble predicting death without the autopsy (Dawson, et al 1998)  Slovic and Fischoff( 1977) and Wood (1979): Psychology studies SEEM like common sense  Does absence make the heart grow fonder?  Out of sight out of mind?  Anecdotal evidence exists to support both claims.  witnesses much more sure of suspect if they are told which one is being suspected.  Wells and Bradfield (1998):all students made false identification after watching a grainy video, but the ones who were told they did it right recalled greater confidence  Post hoc ergo propter hoc  Describes better than predicts The Hindsight Bias

  We are all observers of behavior  Science proves a human “need to belong”  Sometimes common sense is wrong  Familiarity breeds contempt?  Dreams predict the future?  Pre menstrual syndrome involves emotionality?  Overconfidence  We think we know more than we do  We are more confident than correct  Underestimation of unscramble task (Goranson 1978) Common Sense

  How long would it take you to unscramble  Wreat -> Water  Etryn -> Entry  Grabe -> Barge  Now unscramble OCHSA Unscramble task

  Collegians predicting voting behavior, dropping a class, calling home, etc. were correct 71% of the time. (Vallone 1990)  Tetlock (1998)  Asked experts to predict political, economic, and military situation five years out  Experts asked to recollect after five years  The more confident the expert felt, the less correct he was (80%+ confidence = 40%- correct)  Despite getting things wrong, they could all justify the ways in which they were right. Predicting our Own Behavior

  Give evidence for the saying “absence makes the heart grow fonder.”  Give evidence for the saying “out of sight, out of mind”  Why might you be able to find evidence for both of these?  What, then, does common sense tell you about these terms?  How might you go about testing them? Stop and Review

  Testing claims  Moses (test the claims of the prophet)  James Randi and the Aura seers  Meteorites?  Skeptical but not cynical  Humility: the ability to reject your own ideas  “The rat is always right!”  Critical Thinking  Examine assumptions  Discern hidden valuse  Evaluate evidence  Assess conclusions The scientific attitude

  Massive brain loss in early life has minimal long- term effects.  Within days, newborns recognize their mothers’ odor and voice.  Brain damage can leave a person able to learn new skills yet be unaware of them.  Diverse groups report similar levels of personal happiness  Electroconvulsive therapy is a good treatment for sever depression. Surprising findings!

  The midlife crisis is a psychological phenomenon.  Mothers suffer from “empty nest syndrome.”  Sleepwalkers are not acting out their dreams.  Sleep talkers are not talking through their dreams.  Past experiences are not indelibly and permanent recorded in our brains and cannot be access in full through hypnosis.  Most people do NOT suffer from low self-esteem.  Opposites do not attract. What you believe, but is wrong

  Exit Ticket  What common perception can YOU test using a scientific attitude? How would you test it?  Homework  Review your notes.  Define the following and give an example of each.  Hindsight bias  Critical Thinking  Write three questions that you wish to know more about. Exit Ticket and Homework