Formation of the Cold War System

What is a cold war? An intense, sustained political confrontation between countries, involving all spheres of relations (a war) But without a direct armed clash (cold)

The 20 th century Cold War: The process The system

Conflict and cooperation The Cold War started in the framework of an international order established jointly by Western democracies and the Soviet Union – allies in World War II It had a cooperative base That order never broke down for the remainder of the century, despite being tested severely by Cold War conflicts The Cold War can be seen as the process of global struggles over the specific terms of the international order It came to an end in the 1980s when the struggle subsided, and the order was reinforced through East-West convergence

The asymmetry: USA and USSR USA leads in the creation of the global order USSR goes along, while maintaining its identity, special interests, bargaining chips Challenging the West whenever interests would clash Cooperating with the West whenever interests would demand it Never on a par with the US

The asymmetry: USA and USSR USA leads in the creation of the global order USSR goes along, while maintaining its identity, special interests, bargaining chips Challenging the West whenever interests would clash Cooperating with the West whenever interests would demand it Never on a par with the US

The Cold War started unexpectedly early after the end of WWII – almost without a pause A unique convergence of geopolitical, ideological and military factors  Geopolitical  Ideological  Military

 Geopolitical Emergence of a bipolar system: rise of the 2 superpowers  US-Soviet relations became the central axis of world politics  Ideological: A new phase in the Global Civil War  The historic defeat of the Global Right in 1945 empowered the Global Left  Socialism, in various forms, began to look like an attractive alternative to capitalism  Military: Invention of atomic weapons led to a revolution in warfare  A tool for global projection of military power on the cheap  A barrier against large-scale warfare

Jump to the 1980s: The world is increasingly multipolar, no longer dominated by the two superpowers Crisis of socialism, the wave of anti-Western revolutions gives way to a wave of liberal-democratic revolutions The deadlock in the nuclear arms race, crisis of militarism

The first years after World War II:  Who was on the offensive?  Who was on the defensive?  Who felt threatened and insecure?  Who felt confident and aggressive?

Western Fears The crisis of global capitalism The shift to the Left in the politics of Western countries: socialism on the agenda The upsurge of anti-colonial struggles in the Third World The emergence of the USSR as the most powerful state in Eurasia

Soviet Fears Enormous economic losses from the war Problems of controlling society after the war  The war as a school of citizenship  Mass exposure to European life  The population of new territories under Soviet control  The legacy of terror Fear of a united Western coalition against the USSR, possibility of new wars

Factors of Western self-confidence The USSR is internally weak The US is a powerhouse US had enormous advantages in late 1940s:  50% of global production  Nuclear monopoly in  Naval and air superiority  Ground forces on a par with USSR  The role as the main architect of a liberal world order Totalitarianism will be resisted by most people; Western liberal-democratic values will ultimately prevail

Factors of Soviet self-confidence The Soviet system passed the test of survival and strength Soviet assets:  Control of territory: the dominant power in Eurasia  A totalitarian system associated with progress  The leading role in the Global Left Capitalism is in systemic crisis The rise of the Global Left - potential Soviet allies

The Global Left: the postwar offensive EUROPE  Yugoslavia and Albania – Communists have come to power on their own  Greece, Italy, France – Communist parties may come to power on their own  Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria – defeated states in shambles; Soviet presence a major boost to local Communists  Poland – Soviet presence assures Communist takeover  Czechoslovakia – gradual Communist takeover from a strong domestic base, with Soviet help  Moderate, reformist Left makes major political gains in the West (e.g. Labour Party in Britain)

The West was primarily concerned about survival and rebuilding of capitalism in Western Europe USSR was primarily concerned about strategic control of Eastern Europe – securing the Western flank The division of Europe, agreed in 1945, materialized The fate of Germany remained the one major bone of contention – but even there, the lines established in 1945 helped stabilize the situation In Asia, it was an open-ended continental struggle – but not between Russia and America

ASIA: Indochina: Vietnamese Communists as the main anti- colonialist force, proclaim Vietnam’s independence in 1945 China, : Communists defeat Nationalists Korea, 1945: Communists control the North with Soviet help India, 1947: Independence won by nationalists supported by communists Indonesia, Burma: nationalist-communist coalitions lead anticolonialist campaigns Iran: the rise of a Communist-nationalist alliance Turkey: emergence of a strong Communist-led Left The Mideast  The establishment of Israel - with Soviet support  The rise of Arab nationalism against Western colonial rule

The Soviet role in the Global Left’s offensive?  To beat the Global Right in World War II  to project the image of successful socialism  to help install Communist regimes in a few countries  to be there as a counterweight to the US Stalin could control only a small part of the Global Left – in Eastern Europe He readily betrayed the Left whenever it suited his geopolitical goals And he would try to engineer a Left-wing takeover of a country whenever he considered it necessary The postwar surge of the Global Left offered opportunities to Stalin and his regime – but also posed major challenges

US responses to the Global Left’s offensive The core dilemma: suppression or cooptation? The range of options:  Suppression extreme: War against the USSR and the Global Left  Cooptation extreme: Social-democratic reforms of capitalism, cooptation of the Left, accommodation with the Soviet Union as a status-quo power badly in need of healing. A search for the middle ground – for effective combinations of both American elites were split US foreign policy process was heavily politicized and hotly contested the strategy evolved from crisis to crisis

Winston Churchill declares the Cold War: 5uxV4 5uxV4

First American Cold War President: Harry S. Truman (in office from 1945 to1952)

George Kennan, American diplomat, architect of the policy of Containment of Communism

“Containment of Communism” A massive, complex, messy, costly, evolving strategy of global counterrevolution 2 levels: interstate transnaitonal

The interstate level Containment of the USSR  Nuclear deterrence  A chain of anti-Soviet alliances (NATO and others)  Economic attrition strategies  Propaganda war against Communism  Covert operations in Soviet and allied territories

The transnational level Containment of the Global Left  Revival of the global capitalist economy (e.g. the Marshall Plan)  Use of force in various forms, open and covert  Information warfare (propaganda)  Cooptation: tactical alliances with elements of the Global Left on anti-Soviet platforms

The two superpowers never had a significant direct armed conflict between them They fought wars by proxy (Korea, Vietnam, Angola, etc.) But they kept preparing for total military confrontation Nuclear arms Conventional armies and navies Military alliances – NATO, the Warsaw Pact Spy wars New structures of militarism The military-industrial complex The national security state

The end of WWII saw the rise of the two superpowers: USA and USSR A bipolar world – something unique in world history Challenging each other Containing each other Trying to control other states to follow them But also: cooperating with each other to keep their power Each needed the other as “The Other” But both wanted to survive

By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure: The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of expected years) and built nuclear weapons Eastern Europe was firmly under Soviet control China went Communist North Korea invaded the South The image of Communism on the march; unstoppable, winning 1950: Revolt of the American Right against failing Cold War policy. McCartyism elated

Did containment work? Yes: in Europe. Why?  There was a geopolitical deal between Stalin and the West (Yalta)  Successful cooptation of the reformist Left  Stalin’s influence on Western Communists and his policy of discouraging revolution

In Asia, these conditions were absent:  No deal like Yalta  The US refused to co-opt the Left  Asian Left-wing forces were mostly out of Soviet control; Stalin was prepared to gamble (Korea)

By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure: The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of expected years) and went nuclear Soviet totalitarianism hardens, no state breakdown Eastern Europe is firmly under Soviet control Communists take power in China North Korea invades the South with Soviet and Chinese support The image of Communism on the march; unstoppable, winning Revolt of the American Right against failing Cold War policy

1953 January: Dwight Eisenhower enters the White House. The Republicans are committed to victory in the Cold War. The war in Korea continues. Stalin is bracing for a world war ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS POINTS IN THE COLD WAR March: Stalin dies, a new leadership emerges in the Kremlin. It proclaims the goal of peaceful coexistence March: Release of GULAG prisoners begins July: Armistice in Korea