On the Evaluation of Kickers in the National Football League Comments

Kickoffs The value of kickoffs is correct, I think, with two perhaps minor exceptions: (1) Onside kickoffs How to model? If q = probability an individual kicker’s onside kickoff is recovered successfully, and we assume the ball is fielded at the own 45, is the value q(1.6) – (1-q)2.2 = 3.8q – 2.2? Or, assuming an unsuccessful kick leads to clock being run out, merely 1.6q? (2) Positional kicking

FGs and XPs Kicker productivity must be standardized for distance. His real expected relative productivity for a given kick is where p i is the chances that a particular kicker will make it from the x yard line and R(x) is the Romer value of giving the opposition the ball at the x yard line. Thus, a kicker with more leg becomes obviously more valuable in this framework. A kicker’s true productivity must be integrated over the entire distance of the field.

Other issues Should weather be standardized for? Is accuracy in cold, windy climes more rewarded? 1994 is a good time to start sample, because of 2 kicking rule changes. Note that. On p. 8, you claim that more resources are being reallocated to kickers. Are kickers recently being drafted higher? I am not surprised that changing teams doesn’t affect kicker salaries in the way it does for position players. Kickers do not have a complementarity learning curve (not to mention a playbook learning curve) the way position players do (cf. Garo Yepremian). Is the lack of cross-season FG correlation due to endogenous adjustment in distance of attempts? Do kickers get short contracts and no guaranteed money? If so, is it because one is just as good as another?