CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY & ADAPTATION ACTION 5 th WWF, Istanbul TURKEY March 2009 Chris Moseki* & Rashid Khan** *Water Research Commission; **Dept of Water Affairs & Forestry

FOR EFFECTIVE RESILIENCE AGAINST CC IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT SHOULD PRECEED ADAPTATION ACTION MEASURES UNDERTAKEN IN THE CONTEXT OF EXISTING SITUATION

POORLY RESOURCED NATIONS HAVE VERY LOW ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Already situated in drought prone areas, most developing countries are relatively more vulnerable to climate effects These poorly resourced communities, depend on the natural environment (which is overexploited) for livelihoods The situation is worse due to other stressors (lack of access to resources)

The Process followed… Communities’ sustained livelihoods guided the process of the investigations: –Consider current/indigenous adaptive strategies used by affected communities –Assess the degree to which those strategies are effective in addressing the problem (note successes & gaps); – Recommend remedial measures (provide climate info/data & tools) for reinforcement

Small-scale rural farmers in the Muden area of KZN 4 groups (block comm. Chairs, farmers, extension officers & locals) were interviewed Constraints to livelihoods and capacity to cope with climate-related issues emerged from the results of the research interviews

Muden area in KZN

Small-scale rural farmers in the Muden area of KZN (2) Human capital (labour)Human capital Bulk of the workforce comprise women (>50yrs) Few farmers in the field (sickness & mortality) Lack of knowledge regarding markets & info (planting dates, fertilizer types, etc) Social Capital (networks, relationships)Social Capital Each block of farm-land has a block committee Comm. links to DoA through extension officer Issues raised at meetings are rarely addressed (water management, crop eating goats & infrastructure problems)

Small-scale rural farmers in the Muden area of KZN (3) Natural Capital (resource stock)Natural Capital Plots allocated by local induna (headman) & water accessed through the irrigation scheme Poor quality often during low flows Failure to adhere to scheduled watering days often cause problems to downstream users Physical Capital (infrastructure & goods)Physical Capital Infrastructure entails canal, the weir, small storage dams and the tractor (owned by DoA) Relationships strained by “poor service delivery” Lack of transport, lack of access to markets

Commercial farmers vulnerability assessment Factors that enhance risks identifiedFactors –Climate variability & extreme events –Environmental degradation –Sugar price, currency & taxes (financial sustainability) –Subsidies by foreign countries & trade –Sustainability of sugarcane farming versus increased variability in rainfall, etc Responses to survey questionsquestions

Research issues and objectives for vulnerability assessments (Wall et al., 2004) ThemeResearch Objective Current conditions Identify conditions that are beneficial and/or problematic to the system under investigation. Current capacity Assess how successful management strategies are for adapting to stress and/or opportunities. Determine effectiveness of policy and programs in assisting producers with their adaptation measures. Future Conditions Assess the likelihood that there will be changes in the trends and magnitude of beneficial and/or problematic conditions. Future capacityAssess adaptive capacity to meet future risks and opportunities. Assess the suitability and viability of current policy and programs to meet future requirements

PHYSICAL LIMITS No more dam sites No more water Physically feasible but politically, socially or environmentally difficult Capacity of organisations Capacity of individuals After Arnell (2005) and Schulze (2007) FINANCIAL LIMITS CAPACITY LIMITS FEASIBILITY LIMITS ADAPTATION i.e. Adjustment to altered circumstances LIMITS TO ADAPTATION

Climate Monitoring & awareness On farm trials Preparedness workshops Reports Greenhouse/nursery trials

Assessment Implementation

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