TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010 Centre for Global Health Research (CGHR) Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University.

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Presentation transcript:

TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM Centre for Global Health Research (CGHR) Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto Release: Lancet, May 24, 2011 Sources of support: NIH (US); CIHR, IDRC & LKSKI (Canada) CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Conclusions - Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades -Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total) -About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s -About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s -Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter - Selective abortion of girls is now common all over India

CGHR.ORG/GIRLS - First study documenting recent trends in conditional sex ratios, over 15 years, from 1990 to Estimates of the number of selective abortions of girls over the last 3 decades What’s new about this research?

Trends in “conditional” sex ratios: - Girls or boys don’t “run” in families: the chances of a second girl or boy do not depend on the gender of firstborns - We studied conditional sex ratios and compared against the West - Used 3 rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) - a large, national survey which resembles the whole of India: How as the study done? NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3 CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of girls per 1000 boys. CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education No education 10 or more years of education (matric) *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of girls per 1000 boys. CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of girls per 1000 boys. CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Number of aborted girls calculated over last 3 decades using the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census of India million (M) girls aborted over the last 3 decades Census 1991Census 2001Census to 2.0 M aborted girls 1.2 to 4.1 M aborted girls 3.1 to 6.0 M aborted girls CGHR.ORG/GIRLS totals: 4 to 12 M aborted girls

Child sex ratio of girls to boys at ages 0-6 in 2001 and 2011 for the districts of India CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Number of Districts % Large decline (greater than national decline of 1.4%) Small decline (in line with national average) No change, or improvement15828 More than double the number of Indian districts (n=405) showed decreasing sex ratios, compared to those showing no change or an improvement (n=158) Every 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0-6 years implies 1.2 to 3.6 million more selective abortions of girls District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011 CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

Distribution of Indian population living in states with varying child sex ratios 90% of Indians now live in states where the sex ratio is abnormal (i.e. below a natural level of females for every 1000 boys) CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Conclusions - Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades -Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total) -About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s -About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s -Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter - Selective abortion of girls is now common all over India

- Article - Web appendix - Press release (English and Hindi) - Video press release - FAQs - PowerPoint slides - District-level child sex ratios in 2001 and 2011 in excel format CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011 CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

- Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, has fallen during the period of , compared with no change if the firstborn was a boy - This conditional sex ratio fell from 906 in 1990 to 836 in 2005 (natural sex ratio is between ) INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased over the last two decades Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

- Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower in families where mother had 10 years or more of education, compared to those with no education - The gap in selective abortion of girls increased over time between these two groups; conditional sex ratios fell for the most educated, but saw no change for those with no education INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased the most in educated households Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

- Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower for the richest 20% of households, compared to the poorest 20% - This gap widened between ; conditional sex ratios fell for the richest 20% of households INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased most for the richest 20% of households Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth CGHR.ORG/GIRLS