Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique MEASURING PROGRESS AS IF CHILDREN MATTERED: Beyond GDP to New Measures of Wellbeing and Progress Child Honoring: Pittsburgh, 30 March, 2007

What kind of world are we leaving our children...?

... In experience and language of ordinary people More possessions, longer lives, BUT Higher stress rates, obesity, childhood asthma, environmental illness Insecurity - safety, livelihood Greater inequality; child poverty Decline of volunteerism Natural resource depletion, species loss Global warming

The Big Myth: “The more the economy grows, the better off we are”  Resource depletion as economic gain = a poorer world for our children  More consumption, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, make economy grow, but are we better off  Crime, sickness, pollution, make economy grow —just because money is being spent.

Current measures of progress send the wrong messages  GDP can grow even as poverty and inequality increase.  More work hours make economy grow; free time has no value – affects health (stress)  GDP ignores work that contributes directly to community health (volunteers, work in home)

Why We Need New Indicators - Policy Reasons:  “Economic growth = better off” sends misleading signals to policy-makers and local communities  Vital social, environmental assets ignored  Preventive initiatives to conserve and use resources sustainably, to reduce poverty, sickness and greenhouse gas emissions, are blunted and inadequately funded

Indicators are Powerful What we measure:  reflects what we value as a society;  determines what makes it onto the policy agenda;  influences behaviour

A good set of indicators can help communities:  foster common vision and purpose – the world we leave our children;  identify strengths and weaknesses;  change public behaviour;  hold leaders accountable at election time  initiate actions to promote wellbeing

GPI Atlantic was founded to address that need Non-profit, fully independent research group founded April, 1997 Located Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Web site: -> New Canadian Index of Wellbeing Working with Bhutan, New Zealand

Measuring Wellbeing. In the GPI:  Health, free time, unpaid work (voluntary and household), and education have value  Sickness, crime, disasters, pollution are costs  Natural resources (eg forests) are capital assets  Reductions in greenhouse gas, crime, poverty, ecological footprint are progress  Growing equity signals progress Cf closed economy model…..

Natural environment Society Economy

Values, elements of wellbeing Health Security Knowledge Community Freedom Ecological integrity Equity

“Generating Wealth” GDP = input. What are the outcomes we want? – E.g. Adequate living standards, decent jobs vs jobless growth GPI not opposed to growth but asks what is growing (Kuznets). Socially and environmentally responsible dev’t. E.g. Denmark, fair trade coffee, Dow – GHGs See “Good News for a Change”; 2005 conference (e.g. Ray Anderson)

Outcome domains in the new Canadian Index of Wellbeing Standard of living Time use (and balance) Healthy populace Educated populace Community vitality Ecosystem services Governance

Towards Full Cost Accounting Basic Principles and challenges: Expanded definition of capital: Natural, human, social, cultural, produced capital, but no common metric for measurement External -> internal benefits and costs Price non-market benefits and costs Fixed -> variable costs Strengths: Enhances market efficiency, reduces needs for govt. regulation, provides more accurate, comprehensive information

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: 20 Components Natural Capital: Soils and Agriculture Forests Marine Environment/Fisheries Water Resources / Water Quality Energy

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Twenty-two Components Environment: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sustainable Transportation Ecological Footprint Analysis Air Quality Solid Waste

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Twenty-two Components Time Use: Value of Civic and Voluntary Work Value of Unpaid Housework & Childcare Work Time and Underemployment Value of Leisure Time (Penelope Leach’s questions on balance)

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Twenty-two Components Social Capital/Socioeconomic Health Educational Attainment Income Distribution Debts and Assets Economic Security Costs of Crime

Examples of GPI Results: e.g. Valuing Voluntary Work Canadians contribute 3.4 billion hours of voluntary work per year; equivalent of 1.8 million FTE jobs (economic add-on) Services worth $53.2 billion / year, invisible in our conventional measures of progress 1990s: voluntary work down 12.3% - time stress Canadians lose $6 billion in volunteer services

Valuing a Healthy Population GPI Population Health Reports include: Cost of Chronic Illness in Canada (focus on preventable portion) Women’s Health in Atlantic Canada Income, Health and Disease in Canada; Equity and Disease in Atlantic Canada Costs of Tobacco, Obesity, Physical Inactivity Cost of HIV/AIDS in Canada Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Workplaces Value of Care-giving

Costs of Chronic Disease: NS ->New Dept Health Promotion 60% medical costs = $1.2 billion / year 76% disability costs = $900 million 78% premature death costs = $900 million 70% total burden of illness = $3 billion = 13% GDP

Cost of Chronic Illness in Nova Scotia 1998 (2001$ million)

What Portion is Preventable? Excess Risk Factors Account for: 40% chronic disease 50% chronic disease mortality 25% medical care costs = $500 mill./yr 38% total burden of disease = $1.8 bill. (includes direct and indirect costs)

Excess Risk Factors Account for (% economic burden of disease) Tobacco: 10% Physical Inactivity: 7% Obesity:5.5% High blood pressure:5% Lack fruits/vegetables:3% High blood cholesterol:2.5% Alcohol:2%

Costs of Key Risk Factors, Nova Scotia (2001 $ millions)

Cost-Effective Interventions - School-based smoking prevention = At least 10:1 –WIC - 3:1 –Counselling pregnant women (LBW) - 5:1 –Workplace: 2: 1 etc

Health Costs of Poverty Most reliable predictor of poor health, premature death, disability: 4x more likely report fair or poor health = costly e.g. (1) Increased hospitalization: Men = +46%; = +57% Women = +62%; = +92%

Heart Health Costs of Poverty Higher risk smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, cardiovascular risk = costly York U: 6,366 Canadian deaths; $4 billion health care costs / year are attributable to poverty-related heart disease NS could avoid 200 deaths, $124 million per year if all Nova Scotians were as heart healthy as higher income groups

Health Cost of Inequality British Medical Journal: “What matters in determining mortality and health is less the overall wealth of the society and more how evenly wealth is distributed. The more equally wealth is distributed, the better the health of that society.” e.g. Sweden, Japan vs USA

Costs of Socioeconomic Inequality in Nova Scotia Use of physician services: –No high school = +49% than degree –High school diploma = +12% more –Lower income = +43% than higher –Lower middle income = +33% more

Excess Physician Use (=small fraction total costs) Educational inequality = $42.2 million = 17.4% of total Income inequality = $27.5 million = 11.3% = costs avoided if all Nova Scotians were as healthy as higher income / university

Valuing Equity: GDP tells us how much income, not how income shared

Global, equity dimensions: 20% of world’s people in highest-income countries account for 86% of consumption spending. Poorest 20% account for 1.3% Richest 20% consume 45% of all meat and fish, poorest 20% consume just 5% Richest 20% = 58% of total energy, poorest 20% = <4% Richest 20% =84% of paper, poorest 20% = 1.1% Richest 20% =87% of world's vehicle fleet, the poorest 20% = <1%

Translation to Behaviour: e.g. Estimated Transportation Footprint, NS

Reduction in Commuting Footprint

Valuing Natural Resource Health For example, a healthy forest effectively: Prevents soil erosion/sediment control Protects watersheds Regulates climate regulation/sequesters carbon Provides habitat for wildlife / biodiversity Supports recreation, tourism, aesthetic quality Provides timber

Volume 2, Figure 18

Natural Age Limits Maritime tree species White Ash American Beech White Birch Yellow Birch East’n Hemlock Red Maple Sugar Maple Red Oak Red Pine White Pine Black Spruce Red Spruce White Spruce

Volume 1, Figure 4

Volume 1, Figure 5

Volume 1, Figure 6

Volume 1, Figure 3

Old Forests Store More Carbon A study published in Science, reported that:... replacing old-growth forest by young Kyoto stands... will lead to massive carbon losses to the atmosphere mainly by replacing a large pool with a minute pool of regrowth and by reducing the flux into a permanent pool of soil organic matter. (Schulze et. al. 2000) Nova Scotia forests have lost $1.3 billion in carbon storage value since 1958

Changes in Atlantic Bird Species Populations

Recreational Brook Trout Caught and Retained in Nova Scotia

Valuation of Non-Timber Forest Ecosystem Goods and Services in NS (Costanza, replacement values)

Volume 1, Figure 32

Retail Prices for Clear vs. Knotty White Pine (Jan prices)

CONCLUSION: Clearcut harvesting and loss of natural age and species diversity have resulted in loss of:  valuable species  wide diameter and clear lumber that fetch premium market prices  resilience and resistance to insect infestation  wildlife habitat, & decreasing populations of birds  forest recreation values - impact nature tourism

This represents a substantial depreciation of a valuable natural capital asset  a decline in forested watershed protection and a 50% drop in shade- dependent brook trout  soil degradation and the leaching of nutrients that can affect future timber productivity  a substantial decline in carbon storage capacity and an increase in biomass carbon loss a decline in other essential forest ecosystem services.

The Good News: Volume 2: Best Forestry Practices in N. S. Selection harvesting increases forest value and provides more jobs Shift to value-added creates more jobs Restoration forestry is a good investment What incentives can encourage restoration

Goal: Changing Behaviour E.g. % Waste Diversion in Nova Scotia

Can it be done? s/1980s...

GPI: Measuring what we value to leave a better world for our children

Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique