OMG Financial and Government DTF Meetings, Cambridge, MA, June 18-22, 2012 Dr. Brand Niemann Director and Senior Enterprise Architect – Data Scientist Semantic Community AOL Government Blogger April 20,

OMG Government DTF Meeting, Reston, VA, March 22, I went to this meeting and learned things, I volunteered to work on an assignment for the next meeting, I got a report that was very helpful in my assignment, and I used the CIA World Fact Book to illustrate ten Catalyst functions (see next slides).CIA World Fact Book

Analytic Transformation : Unleashing the Potential of a Community of Analysts Linking Disparate and Dispersed Data to Aid Intelligence Discovery, Analysis, and Warning What is Catalyst? – Catalyst is a program to enable analysts to make discoveries in large amounts of intelligence data without succumbing to information overload. How can Catalyst help us? – Catalyst will introduce an all-source data-linking process into the traditional intelligence business model. What is happening with Catalyst? – A scaling experiment has been completed to support the design of common services for the Community. 3

Catalyst Knowledge Base Dashboard 4 Web Player This is a simple example of Catalyst! The CIA World Factbook is a simple example that is scaled up to 267 countries!

Gall’s Law "A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. The inverse proposition also appears to be true: a complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be made to work. You have to start over, beginning with a simple system." - John Gall, systems theorist Key Points: – Gall's Law says that all complex systems that work evolved from simpler systems that worked. – If you want to build a complex system that works, build a simpler system first, and then improve it over time. – Gall's Law is why Prototypes and Iteration work so well when creating value. – Creating a complex system from scratch is sure to end in failure. Questions for Consideration: – Are you trying to build a complex system from scratch? – Could you start with a simpler system that already works, then build upon it? 5 Gall's Law

Analytic Transformation Catalyst Program Definitions Entity: A representation of a thing in the real world, either concrete or abstract (e.g., Name). Entity Extraction: The identification and classification of entities embedded in some kind of unstructured data, such as free text, an image, a video, etc. (People, Places, and Things). Relationship Extraction: The identification and classification of object properties (relationships) embedded in some kind of unstructured data, such as free text, an image, a video, etc. Semantic Integration: Integrate entities and their attributes and relationships to provide better data to work with in the knowledge base Entity Disambiguation: The association of two entities extracted from data as being two instances of the same real-world entity. Knowledge Base: A collection of entities (instances) called quad stores, where each datum is a triple of an entity's property with value and the associated metadata. Visualization: Interfaces to the integrated entities knowledge base like timeline or geographic displays of the entities that help the analyst understand the set as a whole. Query: Interface that allows analysts to search the integrated entities knowledge base for entities of interest. Analysis: Information made available to users so they can retrieve information about entities and detect patterns of interest to their mission. Ontology/Data Model: The definitions of the classes and the properties of the classes. Reference Data: Government databases that are openly available at no cost (e.g., CIA World Fact Book). 6

Analytic Transformation Catalyst Program Example: CIA World Fact Book Entity: CIA Subject Matter Experts Entity Extraction: MindTouch and Excel Relationship Extraction: MindTouch and Excel Semantic Integration: MindTouch, Excel, and Spotfire Entity Disambiguation: MindTouch and Excel Knowledge Base: MindTouch, Excel, and Spotfire Visualization: Spotfire Query: MindTouch and Spotfire Analysis: Spotfire Ontology/Data Model: Be Informed Reference Data: MindTouch 7

A CIA World Factbook Framework 8 The World Factbook provides information on the history, people, government, economy, geography, communications, transportation, military, and transnational issues for 267 world entities. Our Reference tab includes: maps of the major world regions, as well as Flags of the World, a Physical Map of the World, a Political Map of the World, and a Standard Time Zones of the World map.

Entity Extraction: MindTouch and Excel Steps in Creating Country Sub-Pages: – Copy: wiki.toc(page.path) embedded inside double braces – Source: Add URL – Go to: – Click on New Page – Select Blank Page – Paste: {{wiki.toc(page.path)}} – Source: Add URL – Click on Nauru in Excel: Copy URL: – Click on Expand All – Paste URL to Source: – Copy Nauru to Page Title – Save Page – Copy Nauru Page (carefully) – Edit Nauru Page – Delete Line Space at Top – Paste Nauru Page Below Source – Delete First and Expand All/Coppalse All Rows – Delete Editing Icon (Yellow) and Text After :: and Make Header 1 – Do the Same for the Eight Additional Editing Icons – Save the Page and Check to Make Sure there are Nine Items in the Table of Contents at the Top (there are a few Countires that have less than Nine) – Repeat the Process 277 More Times 9

Entity Extraction: MindTouch and Excel 10

Entity Extraction: MindTouch and Excel 11

Relationship Extraction: MindTouch and Excel One Table: – Two Columns Example: Column 1: Section and Column 2: URL Note: A Column 3: Description could be in the URL Example: See Slide 11 – Three Columns: Example: Column 1: Subject, Column 2: Object, and Column 3: Predicate Note: This is the Semantic Web’s Linked Open Data Cloud as Linked Open Data for Network Analytics! Example: See Semantic MedlineSemantic Medline – Four Columns: Examples: Column 1: Subject, Column 2: Attribute, Column 3: From, and Column 4: To, or Column 1: City, Column 2: Country, Column 3: Longitude, and Column 4: Latitude Note: This is the format for Spotfire’s Network Analytics Module developed for the CIA Example: See Semantic MedlineSemantic Medline 12 Note: Also Multiple Tables for Federation of Data Sets with Spotfire Information Designer and Open Software Virtuoso.

Semantic Integration: MindTouch, Excel, and Spotfire 13 Web Player

Remaining Catalysts Functions Entity Disambiguation: MindTouch and Excel – Work of CIA SME’s and see next slides on Query. Knowledge Base: MindTouch, Excel, and Spotfire – See previous slides. Visualization: Spotfire – See previous slides. Query: MindTouch and Spotfire – See next slides. Analysis: Spotfire – See next slides. Ontology/Data Model: Be Informed – See separate slides. Reference Data: MindTouch – See previous slides. 14 Note: The System of System Architecture and Process is: Semantic Index of Linked Data, Data Science Products, Data Science Library, and Dynamic Case Management.

Query: MindTouch and Spotfire 15 Google Chrome Browser: Find

Query: MindTouch and Spotfire 16 Web Player Spotfire Tools: Find and Filters

Analytic Standards: Common Standards for Evaluating the Quality of Analysis What are Analytic Standards? – Analytic Standards govern the production and evaluation of national intelligence analysis. The standards are intended to guide the writing of intelligence analysis in all Intelligence Community (IC) analytic elements and should be included in analysis teaching modules and case studies. – The following five core principles serve as the nucleus of analytic standards: Objectivity Independent of political considerations Timeliness Informed by all relevant sources of information Demonstrates proper standards of analytic tradecraft – The Office of Analytic Integrity and Standards (AIS) within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is constantly working to build a network of analysts interested in learning new methods, connecting with other analysts using structured techniques, and learning from methodological experts both inside and outside of the IC. 17

Analytic Standards How can Analytic Standards help us? – Common standards across the IC leave no room for ambiguity, and provide clear, consistent guidance to analysts, managers, and trainers for the production of analytic products and processes. The five core principles set the standard by which analytic products can be measured using quantitative and qualitative methods. What is happening with Analytic Standards? – AIS provides continuous feedback to IC elements on the quality of analytic tradecraft and recently published a report analyzing a sample of over 1,500 of the Community’s finished intelligence products from 2006 and To promote continuous learning and improvement, each IC analytic element is developing or refining its own in-house analytic tradecraft evaluation program to further advance understanding of the analytic standards and how to apply them. 18

Next Steps I am building a team to work on the OMG project where each team member will have a short list of tools they are familiar with to apply to our NGA and other work. Team (to date): – Kate Goodier – Elisa Kendall – Eric Little – Brand Niemann, Jr. – Brand Niemann Sr. – Joe Rockmore My short list is: – Cambridge Semantics (Lee Feigenbaum) – Digital Reasoning (Eric von Eckartsberg) – Recorded Future (Jason Hines) – Semantic Insights Research Assistant (Chuck Rehberg) – Semantic Medline (Tom Rindflesch) – Spotfire (Jim Hawley) 19

OMG Government FDTF Meeting, Reston, VA, March 21, 2012 Big Data Analytics: Finding the right needles in the Haystacks Working session. – Interactive working session to define the charter and scope of this new working group within FDTF to focus on ‘Linked Semantic Networks’ Participation from Digital Reasoning, Cambridge Semantics, AnalytixInsights, and Lucid. – Harsh Sharma Facilitator. or (848) 391‐ Note: Meeting cancelled. Rescheduled for June Meeting?