KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF UKRAINE

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Presentation transcript:

KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF UKRAINE MINISTRY FINANCE OF UKRAINE KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF UKRAINE Analytic information

Ukraine Area 603,7 km2 Population 45,6 mln. GDP 2010 nominal - $136,4 billion real – 104,1% GDP 2011 nominal - $165,2 billion real – 105,2% GDP 2012 (forecast) nominal - $187,5 billion real – 103,9%

Macroeconomic indicators, 2010-2014 2011 2012* 2013* 2014* Nominal GDP (bl. of ukr. hryvnias) 1082,6 1316,6 1500,0 1687,8 1854,1 Real GDP, % 104,1 105,2 103,9 104,5 104,2 Consumer prices (%, end of period) 109,1% 104,6% 107,9% 105,9% 105,0% Producer prices (%, end of period) 118,7% 114,2% 109,4% 106,3% 105,5% Trade balance (bl.$) -3,98 -8,9 -6,62 -6,25 -6,06 Unemployment rate, % 8,1 7,9 7,2-7,7 7,0 6,8 * Forecast (pessimistic scenario)

Real sector of economy The economy grew in 2011 by 5.2%, industry – 7.6%, agriculture - 17.5%, construction – 11%, freight services – 7.4%

Prices Since 2010 inflation has fallen by 4,6% (end of period) in 2011. From the beginning of 2012 CPI increased by 0.4%, producer prices by 5%.

CPI (monthly, % to December of previous year)

External trade Billions U.S. dollars

Trade balance Billions U.S. dollars In 2011 Ukrainian export of goods and services increased by 28.3% to $88.8 billions, import – by 33.5% to $97.8 billions. The deficit of trade balance was $9 billions (2010: $3 billions). Main groups of import: mineral products (gas, oil) and investment import (machinery and equipment). Main groups of export: metals, chemical an agriculture goods. Export-import coverage ratio 0.91 in 2011 (0.95 in 2010). Foreign trade transactions in goods Ukraine carried out with partners from 222 countries.

International reserves (end of period) Proceeds of foreign currency from non-residents in 2011 exceeded transfers by $16.9 billion. Central Bank managed to minimize the reduction in international reserves (except funds of IMF): $31.8 billion (equivalent). During 2011 the Central Bank supported the charges Naftogaz of Ukraine for its external obligations.

Key performance indicators of banks in Ukraine 01.01.2008 01.01.2009 01.01.2010 01.01.2011 01.01.2012 01.06.2012 Number of registered banks 198 197 194 176 Loans, bl. hryvnias 485 368 792 244 747 348 755 030 825 320 820 414 of which: - loans granted to economic entities 276 184 472 584 474 991 508 288 580 907 588 496 - loans granted to individuals 153 633 268 857 222 538 186 540 174 650 165 456 Investment in securities, bl. hryvnias 28 693 40 610 39 335 83 559 87 719 100 054 % of execution of reserve formation  100.04 100.1 100.05 100.01 100.00 bl. hryvnias 18 477 44 502 99 238 112 965 118 941 111 357 Capital, bl. hryvnias 69 578 119 263 115 175 137 725 155 487 158 873

Foreign direct investment in Ukraine Amount entered in the beginning of investment in the economy of Ukraine in foreign direct investment (equity) on 1 April 2012 amounted to 50.8 billion $, in per capita – $ 1115.7.

The structure of foreign direct investment in Ukraine In 2011, Ukraine receive the investments from 128 countries. The top investor countries (accounting for more than 83% of total direct investments) include: Cyprus - $ 12.7 billion, Germany - $ 7.4 billion., Netherlands - $ 4.8 billion, the Russian Federation - $ 3.6 billion, Austria - $ 3.4 billion, United Kingdom - $ 2.5 billion, France - $ 2.2 billion, Sweden - $ 1.74 billion, Virgin Islands (GB ) - $ 1.6 billion and U.S. - $ 1.0 billion. 01.01.2012

Gross external debt

General government balance 6,3% GDP 7,3% GDP 2,7% GDP 1,8% GDP

(repayment of credits) The line of budget balance Financing the State Budget of Ukraine, 2012 Billions hryvnias Lending (repayment of credits) 12,3 12,3 Lending (giving credits) 391,8 366,8 Public debt servicing (payment of interest ) 29,6 Revenue Expenditure Financing: The line of budget balance 25,1 (1,7% ВВП) Privatization 10,0 Deficit 98,5 -17,5 Loans 65,9 Active operations Principal repayment

with official transfers Revenue and Expenditure of the State Budget of Ukraine Billions hryvnias 100,6 % of the plan Revenue with official transfers 98,1 % of the plan Expenditure

Relations of state and state-guaranteed debt to GDP

Comparative assessment of the State debt of Ukraine and other countries Italy Canada Ukraine Netherlands Ukraine Poland за даними IMF та Мінфіну

The public debt structure (repayment terms) on 31.05.2012

The public debt structure (repayment currencies) on 31.05.2012

The public debt structure (the types of interest rates) on 31.05.2012