WHAT’S WRONG WITH RUSSIAN IFLATION? A. Illarionov, CATO Institute, Washington, USA Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia American Enterprise Institute,

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WHAT’S WRONG WITH RUSSIAN IFLATION? A. Illarionov, CATO Institute, Washington, USA Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, December 18, 2007 © CATO Institute, Institute of Economic Analysis

© ИЭА 2 Inflation forecasted and actual: Authors/Years Ministry of Economy7,0-8,0 6-7 Central Bank6,5-8,0 6-7 Actual in November ,6 ?

© ИЭА 3 Annual CPI and other inflation indices, %

© ИЭА 4 Annual CPI and its components, %

© ИЭА 5 Food or budget? Structural or macroeconomic?

© ИЭА 6 Price of food so far did not deviate significantly from the price trends of other commodities.

© ИЭА 7 Annual indices of M2 and Inflation with lags from 18 to 25 months.

© ИЭА 8 Russia is at 21 st place among 180 countries by annual CPI index in

© ИЭА 9 Russia is at 2 nd place among 180 countries by increase in US dollar prices in

© ИЭА 10 Russia is at 3 rd place among 180 countries by increase in real effective exchange rate (comparative prices) in

© ИЭА 11 Russia is at 9 th place among 165 countries by annual broad money supply growth rate in

© ИЭА 12 Russia is at 13 th place among 161 countries by budget balance as % of GDP in

© ИЭА 13 But it is only at 133 rd place among 146 countries by non-oil & non-gas budget balance as % of GDP in 2006.

© ИЭА 14 Federal government non-interest expenditures as % of GDP has almost doubled from 2000 to 2007.