The four Bray-and-von Storch surveys of climate scientists from 1996 to description and selected results Hans von Storch and Dennis Bray Institute of Coastal Research HZG, Geesthacht, Germany

Overview So far, four surveys among international populations of climate scientists were designed and conducted, with the first in 1996 and the last in 2013, for studying their opinions on climate change, on climate models but also about the role of science and scientists in society and for policymaking. While questions were not strictly identical, many of the questions remained the same, and allow now an assessment to what extent opinions and perceptions among climate scientists have changed over time. In the presentation, some results derived from these surveys are reviewed.

Surveys of Climate Scientists’ Perceptions of the Issue of Global Warming Sample1000 scientistsunknown Non-probability convenience – 2677 scientists Non-probability convenience – 4491 scientists Distribution5 countries30 countries35 countries Distribution meansHard Copy Electronic -uncontrolled - posting request for participation on institutional lists Electronic -controlled invitation Electronic -controlled invitation Response RateAppx. 40% 558 (undetermined response rate) Appx 18%Appx 7% No. Questions

von Storch, Hans, and Dennis Bray: Manifestation and Attribution - more than models. Manuscript under review Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2015: The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists. Science and Engineering Ethics (2015), online Ratter, B.M.W., K. H.I. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between hype and decline – recent trends in public perception of climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 18: 3 – 8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5 (2011) Bray, Dennis The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) , 2011 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch "Prediction" or "Projection?": The Nomenclature of Climate Science Science Communcation (2009); 30; 534 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch Climate Science: An empirical example of postnormal science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 (1999) Bray, D. and Has von Storch, Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN , Selected Publications

von Storch, Hans, and Dennis Bray: Manifestation and Attribution - more than models. Manuscript under review Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2015: The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists. Science and Engineering Ethics (2015), online Ratter, B.M.W., K. H.I. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between hype and decline – recent trends in public perception of climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 18: 3 – 8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5 (2011) Bray, Dennis The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) , 2011 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch "Prediction" or "Projection?": The Nomenclature of Climate Science Science Communcation (2009); 30; 534 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch Climate Science: An empirical example of postnormal science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 (1999) Bray, D. and Has von Storch, Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN , Selected Publications

Data from a series of four climate scientists’ evaluations of elements of climate models and of climate change - with the first from 1996 and the last from 2013 indicate a strong increase in agreement concerning issues of manifestation and attribution of climate change while the evaluation of climate models has changed little in the past 20 years.

Obviously the growing conviction of ongoing man-made climate change is based on a variety of explanations, with modelling not being the predominant line of evidence. We suggest that it may be the repeated assessments by the IPCC, based on paleoclimatic evidence and stringent statistical analysis of the instrumental record which have led lead to the growing consensus of the warming and its causation.

von Storch, Hans, and Dennis Bray: Manifestation and Attribution - more than models. Manuscript under review Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2015: The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists. Science and Engineering Ethics (2015), online Ratter, B.M.W., K. H.I. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between hype and decline – recent trends in public perception of climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 18: 3 – 8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5 (2011) Bray, Dennis The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) , 2011 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch "Prediction" or "Projection?": The Nomenclature of Climate Science Science Communcation (2009); 30; 534 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch Climate Science: An empirical example of postnormal science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 (1999) Bray, D. and Has von Storch, Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN , Selected Publications

The expert group behind the CSSP (2008)–assessment concludes that climate modeling has been steadily improving over the past several decades. A similar assessment is made by IPCC in its consecutive reports. (Climate Models: An assessment of strengths and limitations, A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, D.C., USA, 2008, p. 124.) On the other hand, the survey among climate scientists does not reveal such an advancement, as exemplified by the previous example and another exemplary issue – how well models would reasonable assess the effect of elevated Greenhouse gas:

von Storch, Hand, and Dennis Bray: Manifestation and Attribution - more than models. Manuscript under review Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2015: The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists. Science and Engineering Ethics (2015), online Ratter, B.M.W., K. H.I. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between hype and decline – recent trends in public perception of climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 18: 3 – 8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5 (2011) Bray, Dennis The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) , 2011 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch "Prediction" or "Projection?": The Nomenclature of Climate Science Science Communcation (2009); 30; 534 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch Climate Science: An empirical example of postnormal science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 (1999) Bray, D. and Has von Storch, Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN , Selected Publications

There is a growing consensus in science that climate change is real and can be explained only by attribution this change dominantly to human emission of greenhouse gases – at the same time, the media coverage has been intermittently very intense, but the public concern (in the US and in Hamburg) seems stationary.

von Storch, Hand, and Dennis Bray: Manifestation and Attribution - more than models. Manuscript under review Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2015: The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists. Science and Engineering Ethics (2015), online Ratter, B.M.W., K. H.I. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between hype and decline – recent trends in public perception of climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 18: 3 – 8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5 (2011) Bray, Dennis The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) , 2011 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch "Prediction" or "Projection?": The Nomenclature of Climate Science Science Communcation (2009); 30; 534 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch Climate Science: An empirical example of postnormal science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 (1999) Bray, D. and Has von Storch, Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN , Selected Publications

In 1942 Robert K. Merton tried to sketch the structure of the normative system of science by specifying norms that characterized it. The norms were assigned the abbreviation CUDOs: Communality, Universalism, Disinterestedness, and Organized skepticism. Using the results of an the 2013 on-line survey of climate scientists concerning the norms of science, this paper explores the climate scientists’ subscription to these norms. The data suggests that while Merton’s CUDOs remain the overall guiding moral principles, they are not fully endorsed or present in the conduct of climate scientists: there is a tendency to withhold results until publication, there is the intention of maintaining property rights, there is external influence defining research and the tendency to assign the significance of authored work according to the status of the author rather than content of the paper.

Communality Versus Solitariness Communality implies that research results should be the property of the entire scientific community. Scientific findings constitute a common heritage in which the equity of the individual producer is severely limited.’ Solitariness, the counter- norm of communality, implies that findings should be kept secret at least until publication.

Disinterestedness Versus Interestedness Disinterestedness implies that scientists should have no emotional or financial attachment to their work, be personally detached from truth claims, accept conclusions shaped only by evidence, and scientists should not campaign for a particular point of view or outcome. Disinterestedness also reflects the quality of perusing personal academic interests rather than the interests of funding agencies, policy priorities or institutional strategies. Interestedness means that the scientist has personal interests at stake in the reception of his or her results and work.

von Storch, Hans, and Dennis Bray: Manifestation and Attribution - more than models. Manuscript under review Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2015: The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists. Science and Engineering Ethics (2015), online Ratter, B.M.W., K. H.I. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between hype and decline – recent trends in public perception of climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 18: 3 – 8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5 (2011) Bray, Dennis The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) , 2011 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch "Prediction" or "Projection?": The Nomenclature of Climate Science Science Communcation (2009); 30; 534 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch Climate Science: An empirical example of postnormal science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 (1999) Bray, D. and Has von Storch, Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN , Selected Publications

Self-assessments of scientists about climate policy Considering climate to be a natural resource implies the need for its governance similar to other natural resources, and implies a relationship with the economic well being of societies. On average, climate scientists answered in the 1996 survey the question “Climate should be considered a natural resource” with indicating that they tend to perceive the topic of their discipline to extend well beyond the expression of weather and its statistics.

Climate scientists were asked if they felt “There is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions”. Here there is undisputed support for immediate policy to be implemented with the overall mean response of 5.6. Self-assessments of scientists about climate policy

When asked “To what degree do you think it would be possible for most societies to adapt to climate change without having to make substantial changes to current social practices?”, the majority of scientists tended to agree to some extent that there is a need for many changes. The estimation of the risk may be considered a mostly natural science activity but the acceptability of the risk js definitely a political activity. Self-assessments of scientists about climate policy

Climate scientists.. transgress into policy-prescribing regularly so, uniformly (same direction) so. Typical pattern of a science in postnormal conditions (high inherent uncertaintry; high stake, urgend decisions, values in dispute). Climate science is in a post-normal phase (Funtovicz and Ravetz)

The surveys provide an interesting data base About the changing positions held by climate scientists about the state of climate science knowledge, specifically about climate models, but also about the role of science and scientists in the public and in informing policymaking. which covers the time (corresponding to IPCC SAR to AR5) Which may be extended, with a final survey possibly in 2016 – but others may want to continue which is available to interested scientists.

We invite you to use our data

Material and reports available on data+code book at el_Format_with_code_bookhttps:// el_Format_with_code_book 2013 report imate_scientists_ imate_scientists_ report ectives_of_Climate_Scientists_Concerning_Climate_Science_and_Climate _Change ectives_of_Climate_Scientists_Concerning_Climate_Science_and_Climate _Change report tists_on_Global_Climate_Change_1996_and_ tists_on_Global_Climate_Change_1996_and_2003