Market and Portfolio Update – June 2013. Market Update 2  During the past month we have seen a major shift in markets: The A$ has started to fall; US$

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
How To Analyze Your Business Using Financial Ratios The goal is” 1. to look at how your company is doing compared to earlier periods of time, and 2. how.
Advertisements

Written by Brian Parker, Senior Investment Strategist, MLC ‘After a year of economic and political cliff-hangers, the global environment remains very uncertain.
Investment Portfolio Corey Brown Amy Kuykendall. Asset Allocation Decision O $500,000 fund investment O Objectives: O Asset allocation: investing your.
1 The Chaser. 2 General advice warning and disclaimer Any opinions expressed in this presentation constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are.
Written by John Owen, Portfolio Specialist, MLC ‘Dividend income is a significant source of return for share investors and its importance is often underestimated.’
October 2013 TAE Presentation. 2 Market Shift Higher.
April 2014 Investment review. Market Review 2 Focus for this month:  Fixed Interest  Valuations in particular high PE segment;  Defensives;  Banks;
Common Stocks: Analysis and Strategy
FNCE 3020 Financial Markets and Institutions Fall Semester 2005 Lecture 3 The Behavior of Interest Rates.
Morningstar June 2008 Richard Quin - Director, Credit Suisse
July 2014 Investment review. Australian Equities 2  6.5% pullback to date.  DNR outperforming the month substantially.  CCY and bond yields are the.
CLIENT INVESTMENT UPDATE Superannuation Products Appendix 31 March 2015.
The Chaser December Slide 2 General advice warning and disclaimer Any opinions expressed in this presentation constitute our judgement at the time.
2014 User Group Meeting Our commitment. Your success. Melbourne 23 October.
Bank Performance Banking & Finance. Bellringer Chapter 13 Online Pretest.
July 2014 The Advice Exchange – Technical Day. Market Review 2 This month we review the performance over the past 12 months:  What we got right: −Market.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION A guide to economic indicators and their impact on investing J.P. Morgan Investment Academy Series.
A global economic and market outlook Dr Chris Caton February 2015.
December 2014 Investment review. Market Review 2 Oil Price crash  Implications  Impact on portfolio.
The Advice Exchange Market Review
TAE Presented to:. Market remains very strong 2 Key Market Drivers 3 Positives  Developed world economic growth outlook improving  Domestic economy.
Value Investing Charles Dalziell CFA.
Institute of Directors Strategic Planning for Company Exit Wealth Management Paul Cannons Mike Lenhoff 28 May 2012.
Power Income Portfolio For more information call:
Investment Update March 2011 Elstree Investment Management Limited (ABN ) AFS License number Level 15, 333 Collins Street Melbourne.
February 2014 TAE. Market Review 2 Positive Factors 3 Low Interest Rates:  Strong money growth and a positive yield curve are supportive of equities.
Review of IOOF MultiMix Trusts December Quarter 2011
Analyst Program Presentation Template The purpose of this template is to provide guidance for what your presentation should include and to aid you in your.
Zenith Investment Research Premium Wealth Management Annual Conference Presented by:David Wright, Director 17 April 2012 Team up with an experienced, independent.
Back to a new kind of normal: investment prospects for 2010 and beyond Brian Parker CFA, Investment Strategist MLC Investment Management April 2010.
November 2013 TAE Advice & Support Retreat. 2 Agenda  Business Background  Reporting  Communication  Investment Style, Philosophy and Beliefs  Investment.
G:\CS\UK\2007\!P\Gen07\HottestofthehotOct07 – James Henderson V4.ppt Can UK Equity Income funds keep providing good capital and income growth? Wednesday.
> Market Update February 2015 Michael Fazzini Multi Asset Group.
Why invest in shares?. This presentation is given by a representative of Colonial First State Investments Limited AFS License (Colonial First State).
Equity income: a niche asset class Neil Margolis, Portfolio Manager May 2007.
December 2013 MLC - popular charts. 2 This information has been provided by MLC Investments (ABN ) and MLC Limited (ABN ),
February 2014 Investment review. 2 Market wrap Monthly performance overview  The S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index ended up 5% higher for the month.  News.
Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL
Economic Update Mark Rider, Head of Investment Strategy.
September 2015 TAE Market Review. Performance to July 2.
September 2014 Investment review. Market Review 2 Volatile markets  End of QE  Deflation concerns Rebound  Ebola overdone  Geopolitical risks  US.
© 2007 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L I N V E S T M E N T S  Edward Casey Richard Inzunza, CFA June.
Copyright T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds Date Copyright T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved.
Written by Michael Karagianis, Senior Investment Strategist, MLC ‘With returns from cash and bonds falling, investors need to look for other ways of generating.
Written by Michael Karagianis, Senior Investment Strategist, MLC “Portfolios that concentrate on Australian investments can have hidden risks.” In recent.
Bill Evans Managing Director Economics & Research ABARE CONFERENCE March 2010.
August, Research-driven investment philosophy. Focus on intrinsic business value. Multiple approaches to valuation. Bottom-up portfolio construction.
Overview Background of Ford Equity Research Market Outlook
Investment Simulation This outline is a guideline and/or suggestion. Please don’t limit yourself to working inside the box! Reference the appropriate information/support.
CBA Investors Update Date: November 2012 Presentation by: Richard Muriithi Old Mutual Asset Managers (K) Ltd.
Prudential Balanced Fund (PRUBF1) November 2011 Fixed information Licensed Date: 5 October 2006 Listing date: 4 December 2006 Base Currency: VND Tenure:
October 2015 – Challenges, opportunities and misconceptions.
Overview Sept BHP Billiton Ltd  BHP is the largest resource company in the world  Primarily involved in the extraction of essential resources.
MLC Investment Management Annual Investor Review Appendix: Wholesale 30 June 2011.
Arihant Financial Services Tejas Shah
Investment Update for your MLC Horizon 1 Bond Portfolio Year to 31 March 2008.
1 JANA’s Quarterly Capital Markets & Asset Allocation Update – September 2014.
Portfolio and market review November Australian Equities High Conviction Portfolio Annualised performance as at 31 October NetFrankingGross.
A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MANAGING DEBT INTRODUCTION. WARNING THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED BY THE AUTHOR (DIRECT FINANCIAL GROUP LTD) ON AN "AS IS" BASIS. THE.
1 Beyond the Low Interest Rate Environment INSURANCE SUMMIT 2016 Presented by: Dan Byrnes, CFA Principal & Senior Portfolio Manager AAM - Insurance Investment.
Ratio Analysis…. Types of ratios…  Performance Ratios: Return on capital employed. (Income Statement and Balance Sheet) Gross profit margin (Income Statement)
Pause slide – right clickResume slide – left click Previous slide - Left arrow belowNext slide - Right arrow below Close – escape key Investment Update.
Strategies for volatile times The Aviva name and logo are used under licence from the Aviva plc group July 2010 Stuart Fechner Distribution Development.
RUSSELL DEW FINANCIAL SERVICES
EQUITY-PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Changes to emerging markets strategy in MLC’s Inflation Plus portfolios March 2017 This material is not for circulation to retail investors.
Demonstration Problem
MLC Index Plus portfolios’ strategy update
FOR ADVISERS ONLY MLC Popular chart pack Updated as at 30 June 2016.
HEDGE FUNDS “A necessary inclusion in an Investment Portfolio”
Presentation transcript:

Market and Portfolio Update – June 2013

Market Update 2  During the past month we have seen a major shift in markets: The A$ has started to fall; US$ strength; and Bond yields increase.  Federal Reserve talk of winding back quantitative easing.  The Australian market has been weaker than the global market.

US Economy showing signs of resilience 3 Home builders remain very confident Home Builders Sentiment Survey Initial Jobless Claims Jobless claims trending down Source: Bloomberg

The question is whether good news is bad news… 4  Bernanke: QE purchases could potentially be tapered "in the next few meetings"  What is the impact of a gradual tapering of quantitative easing?  What are the implications for Australian companies? Source: IRESS

Chinese Economy 5  The Chinese economy remains a little soft with key manufacturing indices and industrial production remaining subdued (by their standards) as noted below.  The focus of the new leadership appears to be on corruption and environment at this point rather than re-accelerating the economy.  Lead indicators such as sales of yellow goods (excavators) and power have improved. Industrial Production Source: Bloomberg

Resources Underperforming 6  Over the past year we have seen resource companies substantially underperform defensive yielding companies.  Conditions are shifting to claw back some of this underperformance.  RIO share price assumes a long term Iron Ore Price of $80 and 90 cent currency which seems conservative. CBA versus BHP Source: IRESS

Mining Services 7  Reasonably optimistic on the outlook for the major resource companies however this is at the expense of mining service players.  We have seen a series of downgrades in this space. Engineering Construction Activity

Domestic Confidence 8  With mining investment peaking the Government and RBA need to accelerate alternative areas of the economy to avoid a recession  Domestic confidence (especially business confidence) is very low at present.  We see a number of factors influencing this confidence: The unprecedented long election period is causing considerable damage. The poor competitive position of many Australian companies  Expect lower interest rates – perhaps down to 2%. Currency to assist competitive position and Government to accelerate PPPs.  Housing market showing signs of life and we have a range of companies in the portfolio that can benefit from greater housing activity levels (e.g. Dulux, Lend Lease).

A$ falling 9  Fall in the A$ a short term negative but long term positive. Short term - The pullback has resulted in international investors selling Australian holdings. Long term – Positive impact on earnings.  Competitive position of domestic companies competing with offshore will improve.

Great rotation from bonds to equities 10  With interest rates low and bond markets deteriorating, equities will remain an important asset class for investors.

Portfolio Positioning 11 We are benefiting from current trends given the following weightings: 1.Overweight currency exposed companies – QBE, ANN, BXB, CWN 2.Positioning in companies which benefit from rotation out of bonds – QBE, HGG, MQG 3.Position in housing exposed stocks (low interest rates) – DLX, SGP, LLC 4.Underweight defensive yield In terms of future positioning we see a few key decisions: 1.Look for yield stocks that get oversold.. 2.Look for companies getting caught up in the mining service sell down without much mining exposure. 3.As we look further out the prospect of lower interest rates, a lower US$ and a change in Government will provide a better environment for domestic stocks. 4.Look to add to resource positions given valuation support.

Investment Process – High Conviction portfolio 12 Stock Research  Phase 1 - Quality Web assessment ─Strength of management, balance sheet, earnings, industry structure and ESG review  Phase 2 - Fundamental bottom up valuation and thesis 1.Ideas Generation 2.Stock Research 3. Portfolio Construction 4.Portfolio Management Idea Generation  Quantitative and quality screening  Company and industry contacts  Daily meetings to discuss findings and allocate tasks Portfolio Construction Recommended stocks considered given:  Top down considerations  Portfolio characteristic impacts  Stock and sector correlation analysis  After tax consideration  Monthly ICM review provides strong oversight of process Portfolio Management  Conclusions constantly retested  Sell decisions based on: ─Reach target valuation ─Deterioration of quality characteristics / inv. thesis

13 Australian Equities High Conviction Portfolio Performance as at 31 May 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

14 Australian Equities High Conviction Portfolio Stock Holdings as at 31 May 2013 StockGICS SectorIssuer NameActualActive Code Weight CASH2.7% ANZFinancialsAustralia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited9.8%3.9% BHPMaterialsWestpac Banking Corporation9.3%0.6% WBCFinancialsBHP Billiton Limited8.1%1.3% AZJIndustrialAurizon Holdings Limited5.4%4.7% LLCFinancialsLend Lease Group5.1%4.7% RIOMaterialsRio Tinto Limited4.7%2.8% WPLEnergyWoodside Petroleum Limited4.4%2.1% HGGFinancialsBank of Queensland Limited4.3%4.1% MQGFinancialsHenderson Group PLC.4.2%3.1% BOQFinancialsMacquarie Group Limited4.0%3.8% BXBIndustrialTrade Me Group Limited4.0%2.9% TMEConsumer DiscretionarySeek Limited3.4%3.3% QBEFinancialsBrambles Limited3.2%1.8% AGKUtilitiesQBE Insurance Group Limited3.0%2.4% SGPFinancialsCoca-Cola Amatil Limited3.0%2.3% SEKIndustrialStockland3.0%2.7% CWNConsumer DiscretionaryCrown Limited2.9%2.2% ANNHealth CareAGL Energy Limited2.7%2.5% SHLHealth CareSouthern Cross Media Group Limited2.5%2.1% SXLConsumer DiscretionaryAnsell Limited2.4%2.3% AIOIndustrialSonic Healthcare Limited2.1%1.7% DLXMaterialsAsciano Limited2.1%2.0% CCLConsumer StaplesDuluxGroup Limited2.0%1.2% WTFConsumer DiscretionaryWotif.com Holdings Limited1.8%1.7% Total 100.0%

15 Australian Equities High Conviction Portfolio Stock Attribution as at 31 May 2013

Investment Process – Socially Responsible portfolio 1. Ideas Generation 2.Stock Research 3.Portfolio Construction 4. Portfolio Management 16 Idea Generation  Quantitative and quality screening  Company and industry contacts  Daily meetings to discuss findings and allocate tasks Portfolio Construction Recommended stocks considered given:  Top down considerations  Portfolio characteristic impacts  Stock and sector correlation analysis  After tax consideration  Positive and negative SRI screening  Monthly ICM and Socially Responsible IC review Portfolio Management  Conclusions constantly retested  Sell decisions based on: ─Reach target valuation ─Deterioration of quality characteristics / inv. thesis ─Change in SRI screening outcomes. Stock Research  Phase 1 - Quality Web assessment ─Strength of management, balance sheet, earnings, industry structure and ESG review  Phase 2 - Fundamental bottom up valuation and thesis

17 Australian Equities Socially Responsible portfolio Performance as at 31 May 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

18 Australian Equities Socially Responsible portfolio Holdings as at 31 May 2013

19 Australian Equities Socially Responsible portfolio Stock Attribution as at 31 May 2013

1. Idea Generation 2. Stock Research 3. Portfolio Construction Portfolio Management Investment Process – Income portfolio 20 Idea Generation and Quantitative Screen  Quantitative and quality screening  Company and industry contacts  Daily meetings to discuss findings and allocate tasks Portfolio Construction  Top down considerations  Portfolio characteristic impacts  Stock and sector correlation analysis  After tax consideration  Monthly ICM review  Positive and negative income screening Control Risk & Retest Conclusions  Conclusions constantly retested  Sell decisions based on: ─Reach target valuation ─Deterioration of quality characteristics / inv. thesis ─Change in income screening outcomes Stock Research  Phase 1 - Quality Web assessment ─Strength of management, balance sheet, earnings, industry structure and ESG review  Phase 2 - Fundamental bottom up valuation and thesis

21 Australian Equities Income Portfolio Performance as at 31 May 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

22 Australian Equities Income portfolio Holdings as at 31 May 2013

23 Australian Equities Income portfolio Stock Attribution as at 31 May 2013

24 Disclaimer IMPORTANT NOTE: This presentation has been prepared by DNR AFSL Pty Ltd ABN , an Australian Financial Services Licensee, Licence Number Dalton Nicol Reid has used its best endeavours to ensure the information within this presentation is accurate it cannot be relied upon in any way and recipients must make their own enquiries concerning the accuracy of the information within. This presentation is not intended to provide you with personal advice and in providing this information, Dalton Nicol Reid has not taken into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs. You should assess whether this information is appropriate for your particular needs, either by yourself or with your adviser. Dalton Nicol Reid expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability to anyone who acts or relies upon anything contained in, or omitted from, this presentation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Total returns shown are based on Dalton Nicol Reid’s composite portfolio performance and have been calculated before taking Dalton Nicol Reid’s fees into account as actual performance on managed accounts is dependant on a number of factors including, but not limited to, timing of investment, blacklisted stocks and portfolio execution. No allowance has been made for taxation. Investment into managed accounts can only be made via the appropriate MDA Contract.