Linking policies through land use scenarios to ecosystem services loss Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar Eloi Lennon Dalla Nora São José dos Campos, April of 2014

CST 401/ Topics Introduction:  Modeling approaches  International x regional factors Results  Eloi’s BRAmazon+BRCerrado results (Scenarios GAM, RAM, GAM+BT, RAM+BT)  AMAZALERT BRAmazon results – Scenario A, B and C (2100)

Introduction

CST 401/ General structure of LUC models  Despite the diversity of land use models found in the literature it is possible to identify a common functional structure that is valid for most of the available cases; Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

CST 401/ LUC MODELS FOR THE AMAZON Laurance et al., Aguiar et al., 2006 Lapola et al., 2011 Nepstad et al., 2008 Soares-Filho et al., 2006

CST 401/ Quantity of change in LUC models  None of the previous studies were able to plausibly capture the general trajectory of land cover change observed in this region during the last decade; Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

CST 401/ Quantity of change in LUC models Modeling approaches:  Global approach  Intra-regional approach Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

CST 401/ Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics  Models structure requires a clear differentiation between the spatial and underlying drivers of change; Laurance e al., 2001 Machado, 2002

CST 401/ Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics  If Amazon deforestation was a result of price movements, we would expect that the slowdown in deforestation would be conjunctural and temporary; Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

CST 401/ Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics Protected areas (PAs)  240 new PAs from 2004  +65% over  55% of the remaining forests. Credit access  All lines of rural credit  -65% (all rural municipalities)  -77% (MT, PA, RO) Command and control  Monitoring and enforcement  fines  70 times more over Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

CST 401/ Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics  Previous modeling studies were not able to integrate the global and regional forces that shape land use dynamics in the Amazon;  Scenarios' formulation was also quite simplistic which compromised their ability to explore contrasting pathways;  It's necessary to adopt an innovative modeling framework to represent land use systems as open systems;

Modeling results combining MAGNET and LuccME

CST 401/ Eloi Dalla Nora’s thesis Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)  The central idea is to represent land systems as open systems;  Global scale  Regional scale  Direct LUC drivers  Underlying LUC drivers  Intra-regional dynamics Lucc-ME

CST 401/ Land demand Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)  National land demand is split over AEZs, as defined in the GTAP-8 LUC-Database, the GeoDB consistent with the Economic GTAP-8 DB used in MAGNET; Spatial distribution of the global AEZs and Brazil’s biome-driven AEZs aggregation

CST 401/ Land allocation Aguiar et al., (2012)  Land demand projections are allocated based on spatially explicit LUC models built on top of the LuccME Framework;

CST 401/ Scenarios  A global baseline scenario (based on USDA (2012) and IPCC (2013) GDP and population projections) was run testing different regimes of land use regulation up to 2050 ; Population Growth World Brazil 33%19% GDP Growth WorldBrazil 183%185% Production Growth WorldBrazil 109%110% Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)

CST 401/ Land demand  Such strategy allowed to simulate key land use policies for the Amazon; Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)

CST 401/ Scenarios Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)

CST 401/ ACCESSIBILITY – SCENARIO RAM (AMAZALERT C Paved Roads - Log10(Minimum distance to the nearest Federal or State road) Unpaved Roads - Log10(Minimum distance to the nearest unpaved Federal or State road) Connection to National Markets (index representing the degree of connectivity to SP and NE through the roads network) Very closeVery distant Low High Very closeVery distant

CST 401/ PROTECTED AREAS - SCENARIOS A and B PROTECTED AREAS - SCENARIO C

CST 401/ Land allocation  Land demand projections could also lead to contrasting land cover change patters; RAM GAM

CST 401/ Land allocation  Biofuel targets could strength the deforestation patters observed under the GAM and RAM scenarios; RAM+BT GAM+BT

CST 401/ Some results for the AMAZON

AMAZALERT RESULTS

CST 401/ Amount of change LUCCME Demand (scenarios) MAGNET global model Stakeholder inputs Spatial Patterns LUCCME Potential/Allocation (scenarios) Visions – Stakeholder inputs Biophisical, socioeconomic and institutional factors affect the Demand and Allocation

CST 401/ Amount of change LUCCME Demand (scenarios) MAGNET global model Stakeholder Spatial Patterns LUCCME Potential/Allocation (scenarios) Visions – Stakeholder inputs Biophisical, socioeconomic and institutional factors affect the Demand and Allocation Global: population, GDP and production growth + biofuels targets Regional: roads, protected areas, credit Regional: roads, protected areas, law enforcement Storylines and contrasting rates of change

CST 401/ IV - Contexto institucional Futuro e Trajetória em torno de quatro temas: I - Recursos naturais II - Desenvolvimento social III - Atividades econômicas Presente DESENVOLVIMENTO SOCIOECONOMICO DESENVOLVIMENTO AMBIENTAL ALTO BAIXO CENÁRIO A: SUSTENTABILIDADE CENÁRIO B: MEIO DO CAMINHO CENÁRIO C: FRAGMENTAÇÃO E CAOS AMAZALERT 1ª e 2a OFICINA de STAKEHOLDERS

CST 401/ STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOPS IN BRAZIL IV - Contexto institucional Presente, Futuro e Trajetória em torno de quatro temas: I - Recursos naturais II - Desenvolvimento social III - Atividades econômicas ETAPA 1: organizações da sociedade civil e setor produtivo ETAPA 2: organizações da sociedade civil, setor produtivo, governo e pesquisadores ETAPA 1 (Belém): primeira definição dos cenários ETAPA 2 (Brasília): refinamento das trajetórias

CST 401/ International policies (WP4 report) International policies and initiatives UNFCCC forest management and harvested wood products accounting Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) REDD under the voluntary carbon market Standards and certification National and regional policies and initiatives outside of Amazonian nations EU renewable energy directive (EU RED) Mandatory national renewable energy targets Sustainability criteria for biofuels Sustainability Criteria for biomass for heat and power U.S. programs U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2) U.S. Stationary sources, proposed approach California Low Carbon Fuel Standard Chinese policies and trade Biofuel targets in China The current and future soybean trade between China and Brazil

CST 401/ Brazilian public policies affecting the Amazon (WP4 report) FOREST CODE CREDIT AND SUBSIDIES PROGRAMS SOY MORATORIUM POLICY FOR LAND TITLING LAND ZONING FOOD PURCHASE PROGRAM PAYMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE FOR TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE PLANS, INCLUDING REDD+ IN EACH AMAZONIAN STATE Program for the Acceleration of Development PAC Action Plan for Prevention and Control of the Legal Amazon Deforestation (PPCDAM)

AMAZALERT Scenario A, B and C (2100)

CST 401/

CST 401/ Some results for the AMAZON

CST 401/ Prepared by Eloi Dalla Nora For comparison RCP (~10 000km2)

CST 401/ Premises Scenario C km2yr-1 (until 2100) (ave ) Scenario B: 3900 km2 in 2020 (20% km2) Scenario A: “Zero” Deforestation Scenario D? 10000km2

CST 401/ (A) Scenario A: Deforestation in 2050 (B) Scenario B: Deforestation in 2050 (C) Scenario C: Deforestation in 2050 (D) Scenario A: Secondary Vegetation in 2050 (G) Scenario A: Agriculture in 2050 (H) Scenario B: Agriculture in 2050 (I) Scenario C: Agriculture in 2050 (E) Scenario B: Secondary Vegetation in 2050 (F) Scenario C: Secondary Vegetation in 2050

Scenario C v28 – May 2014 BRAmazon, BRBolivia and ROBIN

CST 401/ (old growth or primary) Forest cover – 2100

CST 401/ (old growth or primary) Forest cover

CST 401/ (old growth or primary) Forest cover

CST 401/ (old growth or primary) Forest cover Brazilian Amazon: 60% deforested (fragemented in most cells, 20% remaining)

CST 401/ Summary We can create storylines for Scenario C (RAM /RAM –GT) and Scenario A (GAM)  Usining the stakeholder meetings  mentioning the policies W4 reported Resulting in the spatial scenarios Ecosystem Services: derived indicators

CST 401/ Example: Derived indicator related to CO2 emissions