EUROCLIMA Bioenergy Workshop International Energy Agency (IEA) Biofuels & Bioenergy Technology Roadmaps EUROCLIMA Bioenergy Workshop Santiago de Chile, 12 – 14 March 2013 Josef Spitzer – IEA Bioenergy based on presentations by Anselm Eisentraut (IEA Secretariat)

Content IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy Roadmaps IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation

Content IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy related IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation

IEA Technology Roadmaps Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives publication Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term milestones, including: Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these Identify key conversion pathways Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability Identify market requirements and policy needs Define international collaboration needs Developed under consultation of industry, governmental and research institutions as well as NGOs For more information: www.iea.org/roadmaps The IEA Biofuel Roadmap has been developed as part of a series of Technology Roadmaps that look in more detail at the required steps to deploy certain low-carbon technologies, and achieve the emission reductions envisioned in the BLUE Map Scenario. The initial set includes 19 Technology Roadmaps, of which 10 have already been published. Several roadmaps deal with renewable energy technologies, of which the Wind, Solar Photovoltaic, and the Concentrated Solar Power Roadmap have already been published. In 2 weeks a Geothermal Roadmap will be launched, and a roadmap on Solar Heating and Cooling, and Bioenergy for Heat and Power are currently being developed. The roadmaps take a long-term view, but highlight in particular the key actions that need to be taken by different stakeholders in the next 5-10 years. This is because the actions undertaken within the next decade will be critical to get currently pre-commercial low-carbon energy technologies to a commercial stage and achieve the long-term emission reductions required to mitigate Climate Change. The importance of short-term action to deploy low-carbon energy technologies has just been underlined by a new IEA analysis published yesterday. The analysis shows for instance that in the power sector, existing plants together with those under construction lead to a lock-in of CO2 emissions as they will be operating for some decades. It is thus crucial to build up low-carbon energy supply today!

IEA Technology Roadmaps Bioenergy for Heat and Power Biofuels for Transport  Carbon Capture and Storage Carbon Capture and Storage in Industrial Applications Cement  Concentrating Solar Power Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Energy-efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles Geothermal Heat and Power  High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal-Fired Power Generation  Hydropower  Low-Carbon Technology for the Indian Cement Industry Nuclear Energy  Solar Photovoltaic Energy Smart Grids  Solar Heating and Cooling Wind Energy The IEA Biofuel Roadmap has been developed as part of a series of Technology Roadmaps that look in more detail at the required steps to deploy certain low-carbon technologies, and achieve the emission reductions envisioned in the BLUE Map Scenario. The initial set includes 19 Technology Roadmaps, of which 10 have already been published. Several roadmaps deal with renewable energy technologies, of which the Wind, Solar Photovoltaic, and the Concentrated Solar Power Roadmap have already been published. In 2 weeks a Geothermal Roadmap will be launched, and a roadmap on Solar Heating and Cooling, and Bioenergy for Heat and Power are currently being developed. The roadmaps take a long-term view, but highlight in particular the key actions that need to be taken by different stakeholders in the next 5-10 years. This is because the actions undertaken within the next decade will be critical to get currently pre-commercial low-carbon energy technologies to a commercial stage and achieve the long-term emission reductions required to mitigate Climate Change. The importance of short-term action to deploy low-carbon energy technologies has just been underlined by a new IEA analysis published yesterday. The analysis shows for instance that in the power sector, existing plants together with those under construction lead to a lock-in of CO2 emissions as they will be operating for some decades. It is thus crucial to build up low-carbon energy supply today!

IEA Technology Roadmaps Bioenergy for Heat and Power Biofuels for Transport  Carbon Capture and Storage Carbon Capture and Storage in Industrial Applications Cement  Concentrating Solar Power Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Energy-efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles Geothermal Heat and Power  High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal-Fired Power Generation  Hydropower  Low-Carbon Technology for the Indian Cement Industry Nuclear Energy  Solar Photovoltaic Energy Smart Grids  Solar Heating and Cooling Wind Energy The IEA Biofuel Roadmap has been developed as part of a series of Technology Roadmaps that look in more detail at the required steps to deploy certain low-carbon technologies, and achieve the emission reductions envisioned in the BLUE Map Scenario. The initial set includes 19 Technology Roadmaps, of which 10 have already been published. Several roadmaps deal with renewable energy technologies, of which the Wind, Solar Photovoltaic, and the Concentrated Solar Power Roadmap have already been published. In 2 weeks a Geothermal Roadmap will be launched, and a roadmap on Solar Heating and Cooling, and Bioenergy for Heat and Power are currently being developed. The roadmaps take a long-term view, but highlight in particular the key actions that need to be taken by different stakeholders in the next 5-10 years. This is because the actions undertaken within the next decade will be critical to get currently pre-commercial low-carbon energy technologies to a commercial stage and achieve the long-term emission reductions required to mitigate Climate Change. The importance of short-term action to deploy low-carbon energy technologies has just been underlined by a new IEA analysis published yesterday. The analysis shows for instance that in the power sector, existing plants together with those under construction lead to a lock-in of CO2 emissions as they will be operating for some decades. It is thus crucial to build up low-carbon energy supply today!

Key role of bioenergy in a low-carbon future 6°C Scenario emissions: 58 Gt ------------> Bioenergy technologies Emissions reduction in 2050 Bioenergy power 1.0 Gt CO2-eq Bio-power + CCS 0.3 Gt CO2-eq Bioenergy heat (industry) 0.5 Gt CO2-eq Bioenergy heat (buildings) 0.1 Gt CO2-eq Biofuels 2.1 Gt CO2-eq Total 4.1 Gt CO2-eq 2°C Scenario emissions: 16 Gt ------------> Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Reaching the 2DS will require 42 Gt CO2 annual emissions reduction by 2050 through CO2-price and strong support policies Biomass is the only renewable energy source that can make a contribution in all sectors, providing around 10% of total CO2 emissions reduction

Anselm Eisentraut Bioenergy Analyst 2011

IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision Final energy (EJ) This slide shows the “heart” of the Biofuel Roadmap. In the roadmap vision, global biofuel consumption increases more than ten-fold from 2.5 EJ today to 27 EJ in 2050. Biofuels will eventually provide 27% of total transportation fuel at the end of the projection period, and will be particularly important to decarbonise heavy transport modes like trucks, marine vessels and planes. Achieving this considerable increase in biofuel production will require the large-scale deployment of land-efficient technologies with high GHG-reduction potential. The roadmap thus envisions the deployment of advanced biofuels that, together with sustainably produced sugarcane-ethanol will provide most of the biofuel after 2030. Conventional biofuels will disappear in the longer term due to their relatively low land-use efficiency, their only moderate GHG reduction potential, and also due to rising and increasingly volatile feedstock prices. This is projection is also supported by our forthcoming Medium Term Oil and Gas Markets report, which sees lower-than-expected conventional biofuel growths in the next 5 years for the afore mentioned reasons. Undoubtedly, new biofuel technologies that have not yet been considered in the analysis might come to the market over the next 40 years, and can contribute to meet the roadmap targets. For this reason, the Biofuel Roadmap will be updated every some years to include new technology developments. Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 – Demand increases in all regions Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050 Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels become particularly important to decarbonise heavy transport modes Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be key to meet the roadmap targets Trade will be needed to balance supply and demand for feedstocks and biofuels

Advanced Biofuel Production Capacity Note: A load factor of 70% is assumed for fully operational plants. Actual production volumes may be well below nameplate capacity within the first years of production. Currently announced advanced biofuel projects would be sufficient to meet roadmap vision until 2015 Beyond 2015, considerably more new projects will be needed, and even more so after 2020

Land Requirements Pressure on agricultural land can be limited and risk of ILUC can be mitigated through: Productivity improvements Efficient use of co-products (biorefinery concept) Use of residues and wastes Use of pasture/ unused land Potential for wood biomass Biomass cascading Land-use zoning and sustainable land-use management schemes Increasing the production of biofuels on the scale envisioned in the Biofuel Roadmap will require around 100 million hectares in 2050, a three-fold increase compared to current land-use for biofuels. Achieving this expansion in a sustainable way will be a challenging task given that global food demand will increase by 70% to 2050, which will likely lead to cultivation of an additional 70 Mha of arable land according to the FAO. Based on a consultation of numerous experts we think that it should nonetheless be possible to realise this land expansion with little risk of compromising food security or inducing negative land-use changes. The deployment of very land-efficient biofuel technologies that can also use waste and residues as feedstock will be vital. In addition, productivity improvements and enhanced biomass cascading, including biorefinery concepts will help to reduce the pressure on agricultural land. Achieving the Roadmap vision in a sustainable manner will require concerted action by all stakeholders along the biofuel production chain. Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha in 2050, in addition to 1 billion tons of residues Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand for food and biomaterial  Land-use management is needed (for all agricultural. and forestry land)!

Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50 Animated slide: First you will see cost ranges of conventional biofuels. After a click the cost ranges of advanced biofuels will appear. As you can see, biofuel production cost development is not 100% certain and costs might vary somewhat between different regions. The ranges in production costs shown on this slide are resulting from different model assumptions. The most important factor that influences the lower and the upper end of the cost assumptions is the link between rising oil prices and feedstock capital costs. The lower costs reflect a very weak link, whereas the higher-costs are resulting from a stronger link with rises in oil prices influencing feedstock costs by 20% and also driving up capital costs. Based on the expected production costs, the total expenditure on biofuels in the Biofuel Roadmap is estimated between USD 11-13 trillion, which translates into a share of 11-12% of total spendings on transport fuels during the next 40 years (i.e. including diesel, gasoline, CNG, electricity etc.). The important issue, however, is to look at the marginal costs of biofuel use compared to diesel/gasoline use. This is only in the range of +/- 1% of total expenditure on transport fuels over the next 40 years, and thus is more or less lost in the noise. The key policy measure to achieve the envisioned cost reductions will be to provide support for the first commercial-scale advanced biofuel production units, which is a critical step towards getting to an economy of scale. In the longer-term, technology specific economic incentives can then be phased out. Production costs shown as untaxed retail price Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements

Anselm Eisentraut Bioenergy Analyst 2012

Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Source Of the 8-11 billion tons one-third is assumed to come from residues and wastes. In order to produce the rest of the required biomass, energy crops will need to be produced at around 250-400 Mha of land. This is about 5%-8% of total agricultural land (including pasture) today. Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Bioenergy accounts for 24% of primary energy supply by 2050 in the 2°C Scenario In the 2DS 250-400 Mha of land, i.e. 5-8% of total agricultural land today, will be needed in 2050

Bioenergy consumption in buildings declines Bioenergy consumption for heating and cooking in buildings declines from 35 EJ in 2009 to 24 EJ in 2050. Bioenergy to provide 18% (34 EJ) of heat in 2050, down from 30% (24 EJ) today In non-OECD countries traditional biomass use is replaced by more efficient technologies, and alternative fuel options (incl. biogas and bio-ethanol) By 2030, 320 million additional households to be equipped with advanced biomass stoves or biogas systems In OECD countries bioenergy consumption more than doubles over the next 40 years Traditional biomass use is replaced with more efficient cook stoves, and alternative fuels Buildings becoming more energy-efficient

Industry set to triple consumption of bioenergy Bioenergy to provide 15% (21 EJ) of total heat in 2050, up from 8% (8 EJ) today Bioenergy is low-carbon alternative for coke and coal for high temperature heat production

Bioenergy – a competitive heat source in many circumstances Heat from biomass can already be competitive today in several circumstances Small scale plants more suited for heat production than for electricity or CHP generation Some reductions in production costs are still possible, but more limited than for electricity

World bioenergy electricity supply to grow more then ten-fold Global bioenergy electricity supply grows from 280 TWh today to 3 100 TWh in 2050 Share in total electricity generation increases from 1.5% today, to 7.5% in 2050 Dispatchability, and to some extent flexibility bioenergy electricity generation, will be valuable characteristics 50 GW of the total 510 GW of biomass electricity capacity will be equipped with CCS, allowing for negative emissions Bioenergy Share in total electricity generation increases from 1.5% today, to 7.5% in 2050

Bioenergy electricity generation costs are strongly scale-dependend Some bioenergy options can already be competitive with fossil fuel-based generation Through capital cost reductions and efficiency improvements, bioenergy electricity generation costs can be further reduced to 2030 Small-scale options are only economical when run in CHP mode, where a good heat load is available

Biomass supply prospects - uncertainties remain Source: Based on IPCC SRREN, 2011 2050 (2°C) Total World Energy Demand 2011 Primary bioenergy demand for heat and power grows from 50 EJ today to 100 EJ in 2050 The required 5-7 billion tons of biomass could be provided from residues, wastes, and sustainably grown energy crops, but some uncertainty remains  intermediate targets should be adopted to enhance international biomass trade, and assess costs and sustainability impact Sound policies are needed to ensure biomass is produced sustainably Source: Adapted from IPCC (2011), and supplemented with IEA data Biomass demand for heat and power reaches 5-7 billion tons in 2050 Intermediate targets should be adopted to enhance international biomass trade, and assess costs and impact on sustainability

Key Policy Actions Innovation and Deployment: Ambitious policy framework: Create a long-term policy framework for bioenergy, taking into consideration specifics of transport fuels, electricity and heat markets Innovation and Deployment: Provide sustained funding for advanced bioenergy RD&D and commercial deployment. Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential analysis. Sustainability: Implement internationally agreed sustainability criteria for bioenergy Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels. Set medium-term targets for sustainable biomass supply to help establish supply chains; incentivize the use of wastes and residues International Collaboration: Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology transfer Introduce technical standards for biomass feedstock to promote international trade Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture, forestry, rural development)

Content IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy related IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation

IEA Bioenergy is an international collaboration set up in 1978 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as one of more than 40 “Implementing Agreements” within IEA’s Energy Technology Network

Strategic Plan Vision: To achieve a substantial bioenergy contribution to future global energy supplies by accelerating the production and use of environmentally sound, socially accepted and cost-competitive bioenergy on a sustainable basis, thus providing increased security of supply whilst reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use.

Bioenergy already plays a major role supplying ~10% of world primary energy supplies IEA Renewables Information 2007

Bioenergy has significant scope to make a greater contribution to secure and sustainable energy provision

Bioenergy involves a range of feedstocks and technology options that can produce heat, power and liquid fuels

Agreement Activities Executive Committee Bi-annual ExCo meetings, management of the IA Topical Workshops Annual report, newsletters, website Strategic Position Papers Tasks Coordination of national RD&D programmes, information exchange and joint projects Task meetings, study tours and workshops Publications, reports, newsletters, websites Networking with industrial and other stakeholders

24 Contracting Parties Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Croatia Denmark European Commission Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands New Zealand Norway South Africa Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States

12 Task in three areas Feedstock Forest and agricultural products, MSW and recovered fuels Conversion Combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion, fermentation, biorefineries Integrating Research Issues GHG balances, socioeconomic drivers, international trade, systems analysis

Workshops - held in conjunction with Executive Committee Meetings….. Availability of biomass resources The biorefinery concept Biofuels for transport - part of a sustainable future Bioenergy – the impact of indirect land use change Algae the future for bioenergy? Developing sustainable trade in bioenergy Environmental Sustainability of Biomass

Strategic Position Papers Sustainable Production of Woody Biomass for Energy Municipal Solid Waste and Its Role in Sustainability Benefits of Bioenergy Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to Future World Energy Needs Using a Lifecycle Assessment Approach to Estimate the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Bioenergy

Annual Reports and Newsletters Annual Report: Report from the Executive Committee, progress reports on each Task, feature article and information on budgets and participation IEA Bioenergy News: Report on ExCo meeting and workshop, editorial from a Member Country, news from the Tasks recent publications and upcoming events www.ieabioenergy.com

Acknowledgements Thanks to: The co-authors of the IEA Technology Roadmaps: Anselm Eisentraut, Adam Brown Colleagues from IEA Bioenergy www.ieabioenergy.com Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 www.iea.org/etp IEA Technology Roadmaps www.iea.org/roadmaps