Richard Harth, Megan Gershey, Rosalie Morgans, Nisarg Joshi and Joshua Olzinski

Introduction Support Date? Impacts Readiness for peak in production World Education?

In 1956, Marion King Hubbert developed a theory in which he titled “The Hubbert Curve” now referred to as “The Hubbert Peak Theory” predicting that petroleum supplies did not come in an endless supply The Hubbert Curve is a bell shaped curve that portrays the exponential growth of petroleum production, a peak in production, and an eventual decline in production.

The Hubbert Curve can be successfully applied to the production of petroleum in the United States as well as the production of petroleum on a national level.

The Hubbert Curve predicted that the oil production in the U.S. would peak between at 10.2 million barrels of petroleum/day. The curve also predicted a peak worldwide in "The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion." --Colin Campbell

Some are in disagreement with the Hubbert Curve in that it does not take into account any other sources of petroleum besides crude oil. Although unconventional oil is not taken into account, the basic principle behind the Hubbert Curve that production will eventually peak and decline still stands.

The production of oil peaked in the U.S. in 1971 at 12 Gb/year. (very close to Hubbert’s prediction) Currently, 33 out of 48 of the largest oil producing companies have already reached a peak. Oil production in the mid-nineteenth century recovered 50 barrels of oil per barrel that was extracted. The number of barrels recovered today is 1-5 per barrel extracted. Evidence only leads to one question, when oil production will peak worldwide?

Optimistic: Optimistic views held by researchers predict a peak in oil production around 2020, becoming critical closer to Some believe that the world will never peak. In October 2009, a report published by the UK Energy Resource Center, based on a review of over 500 studies confirmed that a peak in conventional oil will occur before 2030.

Pessimistic view holders believe that a peak has already happened. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicted in their January 2008 newsletter that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional sources), would occur in 2010.

With the varying estimations of data, it is difficult to conclude when the world will peak or if it has happened already. Most data, however, supports optimism, placing a peak date around This date varies from Hubbert’s predicted date due to the attempted regulation of OPEC and the use of alternative energies.

U.S.? Global?

Fossil fuels have been the most important stimuli of economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution. U.S. oil production has been on the decline from its peak in The increase in technologies and new energy sources has slowed the decline. Increasing populations are now stressing the oil production more than ever as oil increases in demand.

Products produced by oil will become scarce and expensive, resulting in a crisis in agriculture and industry. Gas prices will shoot up, restricting everyday life. Transportation will drastically be changed. Postal services will stop. Farm animals will starve because food cannot be delivered. Schools and Hospitals may have to shutdown.

Peaks in both discoveries of new oil(1965, 55 billion barrels/year) and in oil reserves(when oil production surpassed discoveries in 1979) present a pending problem for the dramatically increasing population. In order to have a sustainable economy, the world population would have to be reduced by two thirds.

According to Dale Allen Pfeifer, a geologist and investigator of the Hubbert Peak Theory, “The oil peak may cause a global agricultural crisis with spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level.” The inflation of oil prices presents a chance for war between nations. Economic reccession.

In order to cope with this decline of oil, a sustainable source of energy has to be developed. Unconventional oil sources still remain in abundance but are costly to extract. The U.S. consumes 40% oil of its total energy. Only 7% is renewable energy.

The inflation of oil prices will give alternatives a window to work in that will slow oil consumption and but us time to find a viable source. Ultimately, we are running out of time and without swift action, oil will reach depletion faster than expected

Regarding peak oil, people are becoming more knowledgeable because of increases in gas prices. The “Green Revolution” has made the peak known, from developing fuel efficient cars to using alternatives, steps are being made in the right direction. The media pushes for knowledgiablity and tries to educate the public of potential outcomes if action is not taken. Overall, people appear to be well educated.