James L. Anderson Advisor for Oceans, Fisheries and Aquaculture Lead of the Global Program for Fisheries The World Bank Seafood Investor Forum May 20, 2014 Roosevelt Hotel, New York, NY

Fish to 2030 – Why? Nearly 40 percent of global fish harvest is exported Over $110 billion in trade and growing Fish trade is more than all other meats combined Two-thirds of seafood trade (in value) is from developing to developed countries Fish trade is more than all other meats combined; more than coffee Fisheries and aquaculture is an efficient animal protein producing sector Sustainable food production from fisheries and aquaculture is essential in the face of population growth

Fish to 2030 Project Collaboration: The World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and FAO Projection of global supply and demand for fish and fish meal & oil using IFPRI’s IMPACT Model Capture and aquaculture supply modeled Model: o Country groups: 115 o Seafood groups: 16

Hundreds of species traded – more than 30 shrimp species alone It is Dynamic: Aquaculture –new technologies, new species, new players Demand is shifting Large emerging consumers – China Governance of capture fisheries is weak and uncertain Data are poor!!! Fish sector is dynamic and complex (Modeling is challenging)

Global fish production: Data and projections ( )

Projected Total Fish Supply Total Harvest Million Tons

Aquaculture Growth 2030 (Model) Approx. 50% of total harvest Approx. 62% of fish of human seafood consumption Aquaculture – 62% in 20 yrs Total supply (capture + aquaculture) – 24% in 20 yrs

Aquaculture Supply Growth: Species More than 90% increase from 2010 to 2030 Tilapia Shrimp 40-90% increase from 2010 to 2030 Molluscs Salmon Carp Pangasius/catfish Crustaceans Other freshwater and diadromous species

Total Fish Supply Growth: Regions More than 60% increase from 2010 to 2030 India 30-60% increase from 2010 to 2030 Southeast Asia Other South Asia China

Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions More than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030 India Latin America and Caribbean Southeast Asia % increase from 2010 to 2030 South Asia (excl. India) Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Less than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030 Everywhere else

Consumption Growth: Regions More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030 South Asia (excl. India) 30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030 India Southeast Asia North America Middle East and North Africa China Sub-Saharan Africa Decline from 2010 to 2030 Japan

Key Conclusions from 2030 study Expectations for 2030: 1. Aquaculture will produce 2/3 of food fish 2. China will consume nearly 40% of seafood 3. Production of tilapia, shrimp, will nearly double from 2010 to Largest tonnage gains will be in mollusks, carps 5. Aquaculture will grow fastest in India, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

Some Additional Perspectives

China: International Seafood Trade ( ) China: #1 Seafood Exporter #1 Seafood Importer Source: FishStat, FAO 2014

China: International Seafood Trade ( ) China: #1 Seafood Exporter #3 Seafood Importer (US and Japan are #1 & #2) Source: FishStat, FAO 2014

China – Things to consider Is their economic growth sustainable? The corruption crack down and high value seafood demand Food Safety

Aquaculture Big Risk…..DISEASE …ISA salmon… EMS shrimp Systems? Species? Where?... Low cost producers generally win... Unless create market niches are created, like varietal wines

US Seafood Consumption Continues to Concentrate in Fewer Species and Per Capita Consumption is Declining

Fisheries Reform Great investment opportunity to stop losses, cut waste and innovate in marketing BUT.... There to be the creation of new ways to make monetize natural fisheries assets... Blue bonds?, public private partnership?, creating new markets – futures? options?... We need create thinking.

Thank You prospects-fisheries-aquaculture