IS THE UNITED STATES HEADED FOR A CATASTROPHIC BUDGET FAILURE? Len Burman Daniel Patrick Moynihan Professor of Public Affairs, Maxwell School, Syracuse University

CBO D EFICIT P ROJECTIONS FOR O BAMA B UDGET, IN $ BILLIONS 1 Source: CBO, An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2010, June 2009; “Monthly Budget Review,” Fiscal Year 2009, November 6, 2009.

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M AJOR F OREIGN H OLDERS OF US D EBT, IN $ BILLIONS, J ULY

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GAO: R EQUIRED T AX I NCREASE OR S PENDING C UT TO E LIMINATE F ISCAL G AP, IN PERCENT Year Action is TakenRequired Tax HikeRequired Non-int. Spending Cut Source: GAO, “The Federal Government’s Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: Fall 2009 Update,” GAO SP.