Converting the Unconverted: Dispelling the False Consensus Bias Punam Anand Keller ( faculty/punam.keller/)

Topics 1.Shed light on decision-making process 2.Message tactics used for increasing compliance 3.Research methods to access this information

OR 1. Shed light on Process OR

Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing COGNITIVEMOTIVATIONAL

Message Characteristics Low/High Level of Fear Framing (Gain/Loss) Low/High Vividness Base/Case Format Physical/Social consequences Order of Recommendations/ Consequences Self/Other Referencing Low/High Argument Strength Single/Multiple Exposures Low/High Source Credibility Tailoring/Mass Emotional/Rational

Research Processes 1.Lab experiments 2.Ethnography 3.Meta-analysis

Lab Studies Low Fear appeals are more effective for segments who are not currently saving for retirement; High Fear appeals are more effective for those who are… Gain Frames are more effective for segments who are depressed; Loss frames are more effective for the optimistic… Vivid presentations are more effective for less involved segments; Presentation format is less important for those who are involved… Recommendations should appear before consequences for those who are not currently saving to prevent freezing; The reverse format is more effectives for those who are converted… Women are more persuaded by consequences to others; Men are more persuaded by self-consequences... Women find case presentations more compelling; Men prefer base rate presentations…

Ethnography Retirement Savings Children’s Education Buy a Bigger House Host Parties Future Better Than Past Live Today In Style

Ethnography 1. Identify benefits lost due to advocated behaviors. –Loss in identity/status, image in community, enjoyment/relaxation in the short-term…. due to reduced income/increased saving… 2. Connect same benefits to advocated behaviors. –Gain in identity/status, image in community may be replaced with volunteer work instead of spending… –Proportion of savings could be directed to a community fund or vacation in the short-term…

Meta-Analysis For African American Women over 50 Half of whom think the Govt. will bail them out, but all of who think they are in big trouble if not But are split on whether anything works or whether they can save Only 20% have any retirement savings A message to encourage Retirement Savings Self-Referencing Male Communicator Gain Frame Social Consequences Case/Story.61.90

Changing Attitudes is not enough Unconverted may have awareness, interest, attitude and even behavioral intentions, but cannot change behavior. »Cost (barriers)/benefit (gifts) tradeoff »Facilitating conditions »Responsibility »Social norms

Topics 1.Shed light on decision-making process 2.Message tactics used for increasing compliance 3.Research methods to access this information

Additional Notes

Heuristics & Biases Overconfidence Anchoring Availability Probability Mental Accounting

Actual Confidence Individual Differences Message Factors Desired Confidence Contextual Factors Available/AccessibleGap *Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing 1. Shed light on Process General Attitude Towards Compliance for Saving/Risk Specific Attitude Towards Retirement Planning and Savings Recommendations Heuristic/Systematic Message Processing, Attitude Towards Recommendations (even though they may not be read)

Individual Differences Gender Age Race Involvement Prior Intentions/Behavior Threat Appraisal Coping Appraisal Self Regulation Orientation

Context Factors Prevention vs. Promotion Level of controllability Level of responsibility Level of uncertainty

Specific Attitudes Toward Risk Individual Differences Message Factors Cognitive Reasons Low Expectancy For Unsafe Incidents Motivational Reasons Positive self-evaluations Unrealistic optimism Illusion of Control General Attitudes Toward Risk Heuristic Processing Contextual Factors 2. Role of Communications

3: Role of Message Tactics Increase expectancy for: Susceptibility Severity Cognitive Reasons: Low Expectancy For Unsafe Incidents Motivational Reasons: Positive self- evaluations, Unrealistic optimism, Illusion of Control Consequences: Low/Hi Threat Physical/Social Vivid/Bland Positive/Negative Base/Case Rate Low/Hi Frequency Low/Hi Controllability Self/Other Referencing Standard/Tailored Recommendations: Low/Hi Response Effic. Low/Hi Self-Efficacy Low/Hi Costs/Barriers Low/Hi Facilitators Prevention/Detection Abstract/Concrete Self/Other Referencing Approach/Avoid Low/Hi Responsibility Increase expectancy for: Response Efficacy Self-Efficacy Available/Accessible