Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Prevention Strategies: Theoretical point of view, practical results and guide-lines IST - Lisbon

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Cognitive Restrictions Perception Restrictions Perception Thresholds Intransitive Preference Relations Constraints from Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Violating Preferential Independence Violating Additive Aggregation Meaningless Criteria Weights

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Cognitive Restrictions Perception Restrictions The Endless Cup-of-Tea...

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Cognitive Restrictions Perception Restrictions Utilities & The Weber-Fechner Law

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Cognitive Restrictions Intransitive Preference Relations A > B > C  A > C(Transitive) A > B > C  C > A(Intransitive)

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Constraints from Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Violating Preferential Independence Violating Additive Aggregation Meaningless Criteria Weights

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Constraints from Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Violating Preferential Independence Violating Additive Aggregation Meaningless Criteria Weights

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Constraints from Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Violating Preferential Independence Violating Additive Aggregation Meaningless Criteria Weights

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Constraints from Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Meaningless Criteria Weights Global Impact of Scenario i = Impact of Scenario i on Dimension 1 x Weight of Dimension Impact of Scenario i on Dimension n x Weight of Dimension n

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk The Risk of the Holistic Approaches Constraints from Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Meaningless Criteria Weights Global Impact of Scenario i = Impact of Scenario i on Dimension 1 x Weight of Dimension Impact of Scenario i on Dimension n x Weight of Dimension n

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Introducing Uncertainty & Variability and Risk as the likelihood of reaching or exceeding an objective threshold

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures The Flaw of Averages Savage, S. L. (2012). The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty: John Wiley & Sons.

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures The Flaw of Averages Savage, S. L. (2012). The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty: John Wiley & Sons.

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures The Flaw of Averages Savage, S. L. (2012). The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty: John Wiley & Sons.

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Using Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Using Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Using Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Using Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Using Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Using Risk Importance Measures

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Further Steps: Portfolio Management & Cost-Bennefit Analysis

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Conclusions We think that the exploration of this tool can open new paths in the field of Seismic Risk, overcoming some of the difficulties we found. Many of the concepts and procedures here presented can, in our opinion, be of added value in methodologies purposed by other authors. We believe, for example, that the nature and the construction of DI, can, if adequately adapted, effectively and with advantages, substitute criteria like “Direct Losses”, and as also some concerns about “Response Effectiveness”, already incorporating Risk Amplification due to Interdependencies and cascading effects. Uncertainty and the natural variability of many of the variables usually incorporated in Seismic Risk Analysis was also, not only incorporated but also explored, in our believe with strong added value to the global understanding of Risk Assessment and Management. This formulation, seems particularly well adapted in the case of “Low Probabilities – High Consequences” where our cognitive restrictions seems to show major difficulties due to the lack of available and clear mental images, or to the difficulty of promptly evoke them in order to allow the mental associations with something we do know, necessary to support the cognitive process of value and utility construction and processing. Recalling the already cited D. Kahneman words “Vivid events, even if irrelevant, disrupt the calculation as system 1 overcomes system 2”.

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Stepping into Risk Using Disruption Index, DI & Risk Importance Measures Conclusions In this whole approach, subjectivity was kept at a very low level. Neither subjective judgments (utility or value functions in the modeling of impacts in criteria), neither tradeoffs (criteria weights) where used, raising objectiveness to the whole process and conclusions. Of course, if one can gather all the involved stakeholders, public and private, that have the responsibility and power to decide upon Seismic Risk Mitigation, then, Conference Decision and MCDA can come into play as robust and powerful tools of Decision Aid. But, even then, we think that the methodology here presented can be a major value in such an environment, namely by the simplicity and clarity of the “Importance Measures”, simple to understand, explain and communicate. The DI Scale itself, even being an Only Ordinal Scale, offering a comprehensive description of real observed scenario patterns, can also play an important role in Risk Perception and Risk Communication. Objectives difficult to achieve.

Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources, UPStratMAFA 3 rd General Meeting | Iceland – July 2013 F. Mota de Sá, M. A. Ferreira, C.S. Oliveira Prevention Strategies: Theoretical point of view, practical results and guide-lines IST - Lisbon Thaks for Your attention