Trade effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Elisa Borghi, Rodolfo Helg and Lucia Tajoli September 2014

Aim of the work Assessment of the trade impact of the TTIP – Taking into account the economic weight of the two areas involved in the agreement – Taking into account the relevance of elimination of non-tariff barriers and other measures

Methodology Estimates of a gravity equation X ijt is exports from country i to country j at time t D ij is the geodesic distance measure Y it and Y jt are respectively exporter and importer countries’ GDP, pair-specific time-invariant characteristics (common language, contiguity, common currency, colonial ties) RTA ijt includes measures of trade and economic integration between country pairs TD is a measure of trade diversion exporter, importer and year fixed effects. Estimation period: 2004 – 2011 Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator

Results (1)

Results (2)

Results (3)

Trade potential

Summing up Results show that the trade effects of the TTIP are significant and relevant, the impact of the agreement will affect the involved economies Open issues: – Within-EU effects – Alignment and coherence with EU trade policy – Setting “new standards” in preferential agreements – Impact on WTO and multilateral negotiations