Thank you: Joint Fire Science Program Effects of using Visualization and Animation in Presentations about Forest Succession and Fire Behavior Potential Jane Kapler Smith, USDA Forest Service Donald E. Zimmerman, Colorado State University Carol Akerelrea, USDI BLM Garrett O’Keefe, Colorado State University

Thank you, Partners and Advisors: Paula Fornwalt, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Merrill Kaufmann, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Laurie Huckaby, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Jason Stoker, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Nick Crookston Nick Crookston, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow Jim zumBrunnen, Colorado State University Thank you, Workshop Participants!

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We asked: 1. Can a presentation about forest modeling increase knowledge about forest processes in members of the public? 2. Do computer visualizations and animations enhance effectiveness of such a presentation? 3. Do formal presentations influence public perceptions of the Forest Service and forest management? 4. Do visualization and animation affect these perceptions?

Model: FVS-FFE Graphics: SVS Groups:Rural mountain residents (Poudre Canyon) Town residents (Fort Collins) Students (Colorado State)

Agenda: Refreshments Introduction– purpose, paperwork, honorarium Pre questionnaire– knowledge Presentation Post questionnaire– knowledge plus presentation, visual aids, demographics plus Forest Service credibility, model credibility Programs: 4 “visualized” presentations 3 “non-visualized” presentations 142 participants Topics: Succession Fire behavior Forest management Modeling

Not Visualized or Animated 2000~1896 Concept: Succession Visualized & Animated

1900– 170 trees 2000– 409 trees Concept: Modeling future condition Not Visualized or Animated Visualized & Animated ~1903 ~1999 ~2050 Model predicts: 25% more trees 30% greater cover – 547 trees

Concept: Modeling future condition Not Visualized or Animated Visualized & Animated ~1903 ~1999 ~2050 Model predicts: 25% more trees 30% greater cover

1. Can a presentation about forest modeling increase knowledge about forest processes in members of the public? 87%Succession 95%Models 78%Management 87%Fire behavior Pre to Post Questionnaire “Don’t know” signif. Knowledge signif. * * *

Rural MtnTownStudent Visualized, Animated Not Vis. or Anim. 2. Do computer visualizations and animations enhance effectiveness of such presentations? Succ.Fire be.Mgt.Models No Yes * * * Knowledge signif. vs. Possible explanations: Age Education/biology

2. Do computer visualizations and animations enhance effectiveness of such presentations? ….if “effectiveness” = “appeal”… * *

3. Do formal presentations influence public perceptions of the Forest Service and forest management? Not true Usu. true 4. Do visualization and animation affect these perceptions? Substantial variation, no clear pattern Probably Yes:

Conclusions 1. Presentations can enhance understanding of forest processes and models. 2. Visualization & animation may increase understanding for some audiences (older or less educated?)… and people like it! 3. Presentations may increase agency credibility 4. Visualization & animation unlikely to increase credibility 5. Presentation quality matters

1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How do our choices influence forests… and fires?

The players: 0.5 inch ponderosa pine…

Models help us understand and predict

Modeled Succession

~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050

Denser (2050) Denser (2050) Denser (2050) Wind, mph Wind, mph 60 Open (1900) Open (1900) Open (1900) Dense (2000) Dense (2000) Dense (2000) Surface & Passive CrowningActive Crowning Surface & Passive CrowningActive Crowning Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire

Presentations and Visualization and Animation in Presentations Visualization and Animation in Presentations Thank you! Effects of using Visualization and Animation in Presentations Information at Firelab.org