“Friends” in Online Places Trends in MySpace and Facebook ‘Friends’ in the 2008 Presidential Primary Brandon Rottinghaus Department of Political Science University of Houston

The Internet and Campaigns Like telegraph, radio and television before it, “the Internet has changed the nature of campaigns.” The Internet has the potential to link voters and campaigns / candidates / parties Still in it’s infancy and utility is still not well understood…but… …having no Internet presence would not be acceptable in today’s political market

Why Campaign Online? Causal relationship between those looking for information online and those who vote Young people are more likely to use online sources, linking campaigns to them Can increase the “pool” of those interested in politics because information is “cheaper” to get Minor party candidates can get exposure when they otherwise might not (but studies show that the web reinforces existing predispositions and mobilization advantages rather than helping outsider candidates)

Online Networks and Campaigns On Facebook in 2006, about 1.5 million members had joined a candidate’s site A demonstration of strength in the “invisible primary” Number of supporters has been shown to have a small effect on final vote percentage in Congressional races (candidates who doubled their supporters increased vote share by 2.4%) The “finishing” order for the Democrats in 2008 reflected the order of the number of supporters (Obama, Clinton, then Edwards)

But, why do people join online? The cause is internal (mobilization): Campaigns attempt to recruit online or your (real) friends join because you have joined The cause is external (advertising): Individuals see events or read about events and “join” the campaign they evaluate positively

A special thanks to the good folks at for providing us these important data!

MoveOn.Org town hall on Iraq (Obama wins straw poll) Obama campaign takes over MySpace page CA State Democratic Convention (Hilary promises to withdraw troops immediately)

Democratic Debates

McCain launches campaign Guiliani’s lead diminishes Two top McCain advisers resign

Republican Debates

Our Question: What effect (if any) do independent political events have on online joining?

Three Factors That Might Matter Changes in Iowa Electronic Market (a “stock” market we use as a proxy for poll position) Daily headline and total newspaper coverage of the candidate Candidate involvement in official political debates (sponsored by an external organization)

The Findings Media coverage (either total or front page) had no effect The presence of a debate the day before had no effect “Poll position” (via the Iowa Electronic Market) had a positive effect on joining, but only for Republicans

The World Wide Point Site is “socially networked,” meaning that external events may not have an effect on who joins Democratic identifiers were possibly more likely to be mobilized while Republican identifiers were more likely to be influenced by advertising Suggests (as others have found in Congressional races) that Democrats have a bit of an edge in online campaigning as a mobilization tool But, the advertising function may improve the depth of a Republican candidates’ voter base and assist in fundraising