Agricultural impacts of climate in Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Roberto Seiler, Marta Vinocur. LA - 29.

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Presentation transcript:

Agricultural impacts of climate in Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Roberto Seiler, Marta Vinocur. LA - 29

MEXICO Central Region. Veracruz

Climatic Events. Veracruz Eakin,H.

Coffee T,Pcp requirements SpringSummerWinter 17 o C < T < 24 o C Pcp: 1800 – 2000 mm Altitude: 900 – 1300 msnm Optimum conditions Pcp: need of relative drought Temperature: high T Temperature: frosts Effect: loss of flowers. Maturity of berries Losses in production

Risk space. Veracruz. MAM

Risk space. Veracruz. JJA

Risk Space” Veracruz, Mex. DEF

Climate & Coffee Production Changes.Downscaling model Season CCCGFDL TPcpT Winter+-++ Spring+-+- Summer+-++ Autumn++++ Palma, 2004 Huatusco Aptitude SimilarDecreases

Coffee Production = - k 1 + k 2 (T summer ) – k 3 (T summer ) 2 + k 4 (Pcp Spring ) + k 5 T winter + k 6 (T Winter ) 2 + k 7 (Minimum Wage summer ) Equation for Coffee Production Mexico – Est. Real Gay, Estrada, Conde, Eakin, Villers

Cafe2. Effects of summer temperature on coffee production. Gay, Estrada, Conde, Eakin, Villers

Climate & Coffee Production Changes. Equation. 2020

Córdoba, Argentina

Argentina Study area Córdoba Province

FARMERS’ Perceptions Droughts Hailstorms Floods Climatic Risk in Southern Córdoba

Risk space. Laboulaye, Cba. DEF

Risk space. Laboulaye, Cba. SON

Risk space. Río Cuarto, Cba. DEF

Risk space. Pilar, Cba. DEF

Pcp Laboulaye,

Changes in Drought Risk. Córdoba Scenario. ECHAM, A2.

Conclusions Risk spaces are a useful tool to identify:Risk spaces are a useful tool to identify: –Climate variability and extreme weather events, which strongly affect agricultural production –Climate change conditions that might open windows of opportunities in some regions, –Climate change conditions that might severily affect agricultural production In any case, it is still an open question how changes in future varibility will affect agricultural production.In any case, it is still an open question how changes in future varibility will affect agricultural production.

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