Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Climate Change in Mexico Global Environmental Change: the challenge for North America 2030 Ottawa, Canada 25th June 2005 Climate change and its expected impacts upon North America

In recent decades, surface temperature is increasing in a coherent manner with the rest of the planet BC Sur Yucatán Oaxaca Temper atura (°C) Periodo Máxima Mínima Media Guanajuato Global Temperature Sonora Tamaulipas stations without urban effect

Aguilar et al 2005 Trends in consecutive rainy days Trends in consecutive dry days Extreme precipitation Heat waves Climate change signals in temperature and precipitation extreme conditions

 T under A1B Probability of exceeding 1 std dev of present T by the 2030 Climate change scenarios (A1B) Changes in temperature (uncertainty range) in northern Mexico AR4 IPCC Heat waves Northern Mexico

 PCP (mm) % change in pcp Climate change scenarios in annual precipitation Probability of change in Pcp larger than -15% by the 2030 Pcp in Chihuahua Increase in intensity of extreme pcp events

Niño years Changes in water balance central Mexico Increases in T  1C PCP deficit  20% 2 months with no precip during the dry season increase the chances of forest fires NDVI Wet conditions Dry conditions

Water used in various sectors Degree of pressure on water resources =________________________ Natural water availability PRESENT (2004) BUSSINESS AS USUAL (2030) BUSSINESS AS USUAL PLUS CLIMATE CHANGE(2030)

Risk of climate change in wetlands Streamflow in the San Fernando River Runoff

What is the tendency in extreme precipitation events in southern Mexico? The intensity of extreme precipitation during the last century in southern Mexico Chiapas Three days pcp in Ocotepec, Chiapas, 960 mm Changes in land use

The stability of slopes has dimnished due to land use change

Projected changes in runoff for the 2030 should consider land use change and sea level Percentage of pcp that runoffs with P = 100 mm of rain More runoff Sea level change

PRECIS Model 20-km Future Present Interest in learning more about extreme events Tropical cyclone tracks

What´s the cost of no-adaptation? The economic and environmental costs of Wilma, Stan, Dean, Floods, El Niño 97, etc overpass the investment in prevention and recovery? Adaptation to Climate Change is an opportunity Mexican government actions in relation to Climate Change Mexicant endorsement of various Climate Change initiatives Emmissions inventory Mitigation initiatives Vulnerability studies to define adaptation strategies

Summary and conclusions Need to estimate the risk of socio- ecosystems in view of climate change More climate change scenarios region specific Detection and attribution studies to show that climate change is taking place Initiate adaptation projects