Malformation rates in Bavaria following the Chernobyl accident Alfred Körblein Munich Environmental Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Malformation rates in Bavaria following the Chernobyl accident Alfred Körblein Munich Environmental Institute

Monthly malformation rates in Bavaria

Caesium-137 deposition in Bavaria

BfS study: no significant effect on odds ratios

Ratio of maformation rates southern vs. northern Bavaria (odds ratios)

Caesium burden of pregnant women

Odds ratios after shifting time windows

Dependency on caesium deposition

Odds ratio: Ratio of malformation rates in Nov+Dec 1987 to rates in Nov+Dec of all other years ( )

Results No increase of malformation rates in 1987 relative to the long- term trend for Bavaria as a whole In Nov+Dec 1987, seven months after the maximum caesium burden of pregnant women, malformation rates are nearly 2- times higher in southern Bavaria than in northern Bavaria Analysis on a district level reveals a significant dependency on caesium deposition in Nov+Dec 1987 Decrease of malformation rates in districts with low caesium deposition, increase where caesium deposition is high. Sum effect: no increase in Bavarian average, 1987