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U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Energy Outlook For Baltimore Chartered Financial Analyst Society April 08, 2013 | Baltimore, MD By Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery 3 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 HistoryProjections % 20% 26% 8% 1% 32% 28% 19% 11% 9% 2% Shares of total U.S. energy Nuclear Oil and other liquids Liquid biofuels Natural gas Coal Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) % 39% 24% 6% 8% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

U.S. Shale Gas 4 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production 5 million cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin 6 Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years 7 shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of January 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated onshore Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

9 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Industrial* Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation ** 33% 14% 6% 32% 12% 33% 19% 3% 31% 13% *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Gas to liquids 2% Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come? 10 U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 Pipeline fuel (for transporting natural gas) Light-duty vehicles 2011 HistoryProjections 95% 3% 1% 28% 38% 3% 31% 1% Buses Freight trucks Gas to liquids

The U.S. is projected to be both an exporter and importer of natural gas U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Alaska LNG exports Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports 11 Imports from Canada LNG imports Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2011 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

U.S. Tight Oil 13 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years 14 tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through October Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013 ProjectionsHistory 2011 Alaska Tight oil Other lower 48 states onshore Lower 48 states offshore STEO March 2013 U.S. crude oil projection

U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades 16 annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011 million barrels per day Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly net product exporter Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand 17 U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports 32% STEO forecast for % ProjectionsHistory % 2012 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release AEO2012 AEO2013

Global tight oil production comparisons 19 Source: Preliminary International Energy Outlook 2013 and BP Energy Outlook 2030, million barrels per day BP Energy Outlook 2030 IEO2013 DRAFT Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

U.S. Coal and Electricity 20 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source 21 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 25% 19% 42% 13% 1% Nuclear Oil and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables 2011 ProjectionsHistory 17% 16% 35% 30% 1% % 13% 19% 11% 4% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases 22 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Natural gas 2012 Reference Case $15 Carbon Fee $25 Carbon Fee Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal % 10% 20% 45% 28% 15% 18% 38% 34% 22% 27% 16% 34% 23% 38% 4% Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis 23 ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release History Projections dollars per Btu HistoryProjections2011 Competitive parity Energy prices to the electric power sector Coal Natural gas Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

U. S. electricity use and economic growth, Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, Percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release History Projections 2011 Electricity Use GDP 2.4% 0.9% 2011 – 2040 average

U.S. Renewables and Biofuels Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08,

Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Wind Solar Geothermal Waste Biomass Industrial CHP Power sector Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) 2011 ProjectionsHistory Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

Despite recent growth, ethanol and biodiesel provide a modest share of U.S. motor fuels 27 biofuel consumption Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 Ethanol share of gasoline Biodiesel share of distillate

Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Other Advanced Legislated RFS in 2022 Biodiesel Net imports Cellulosic biofuels Corn ethanol RFS with adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7)

In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO 2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level 29 carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory (billion metric tons) %-5.1% (percent change from 2005) AEO2013 Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013

For more information Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Short-Term Energy Outlook | Annual Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Monthly Energy Review | Today in Energy |