European Environment Agency Budapest University of Technology and Economics László Somlyódy Chair, Scientific Committee of EEA CONTEXT SETTING AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability EEA Workshop, Copenhagen, May 2007

European Environment Agency PresenceFuture Scenarios Strategy, information and research Goals Indicators

European Environment Agency Comprehensive global or European- scale environmental scenarios - Full coverage? - Feed-backs? - Surprise free scenarios? - Emerging issues? EEA (2005) ScenariosTime horizon EEA2010- SEI2050 IPCC2100 MEA2050 OECD2020 UNEP2030s WBCSD2050 WWW Many different scenarios & time horizons ( )

European Environment Agency PresenceFutureScienceStrategy Methods Information Goals Indicators Scenarios Strategy, information and research

European Environment Agency The DPSIR assessment framework

European Environment Agency PresenceFutureScienceStrategy Methods Information Forsight Research + Policy Goals Indicators Scenarios Strategy, information and research

European Environment Agency Knowledge and ignorance KnowingNot-knowing 0 1 IgnoranceRisk Uncertainty Recognized ignorance P. Harremoes (2001) P. Harremoes (2001)

European Environment Agency PresenceFutureScienceStrategy Methods Information Forsight UncertaintiesSurprises Research + Policy Goals Indicators Scenarios EEA Strategy, information and research

European Environment Agency Europe and external impacts

European Environment Agency Key interactions between different environmental concerns („environmental future”) - Non-point sources as an example? EEA (2005)

Phosphorus emission (kg P/ha/y) Estimation of non-point source TP emissions in Hungary: sub-basin level

Water bodies Lakes Sub-basins Estimation of non-point source TP emissions (1100 sub-basins)

© daNUbs Non-point source TP emissions: Danube basin level TP emissions (g/ha/y)

European Environment Agency PresenceFutureScienceStrategy Methods Information Forsight UncertaintiesSurprises Research + Policy Goals Indicators Scenarios EEA Strategy, information and research D „Socio-economic future” THIS SEMINAR Forsight Research + Policy

European Environment Agency Social Technology Environment Economy Policy STEEP drivers

European Environment Agency Links between key driving forces and environmental issues - Complexity? - Non-linearities? - Models? - Research? EEA (2005)

European Environment Agency Research agendaEmerging issues Integrated assessments EEA Multi-annual work programme STEEP STEEP framework for EEA

European Environment Agency Overarching workshop objectives: checklist What are the mega trends of STEEP drivers (at least 20 years)? What are the uncertainties? How to “predict surprises”? Which research and research foresight do we need to develop policy foresight?

European Environment Agency DriversKey words Questions 1. SocialPopulation growth Poverty Migration Land use Urbanisation Values/perception Behaviour  Will urban sprawl continue?  How will time be used by an ageing population?  How to predict public environmental concern? Drivers and questions

European Environment Agency 2. TechnologyEnergy Transport Agriculture ICT Biotech Nanotech Material tech Pollution abatement Monitoring  Which are the emerging or re-emerging techs?  How to adopt the new technologies?  Will the current trend of converging technologies continue? Drivers and questions (cont.)

European Environment Agency 3. Environment Eco-services (food, water etc.) Material flows Environmental state Pollution levels Climate change impacts Ecosystems impacts Health impacts Sector impacts  How to introduce ecosystems resilience and eco-services in assessment and reporting?  Which are the environmentally important cross-thematic drivers and mega-trends?  Which are the new products and pollutants? Drivers and questions (cont.)

European Environment Agency 4. EconomyGlobal trade Monetary flow Economic instruments Are there new economic instruments under development?  What are the predictions of global trade? Drivers and questions (cont.) 5. PolicyGovernance Globalisation Precaution Is there a current trend from globalization to “glocalization”?  How will the precautionary principle be applied in the future?  Governance barriers?

European Environment Agency Next steps Summary of the workshop Survey of existing foresight activities Populating the Research Foresight portal and the difficult step Try to make a research foresight based on all these Advise on EU research strategy and utilization of results Influence the EU research agenda accordingly „Bridging the Gap” conference in 2008

European Environment Agency

Environmental strategies Present Drivers S tate Time 2000 Goal

European Environment Agency Environmental strategies Present Drivers S tate Time2000 Monitoring Adjustments Goals

European Environment Agency Knowledge Ignorance Borderline between knowledge and ignorance Research and development Knowledge and ignorance P. Harremoes (2001) P. Harremoes (2001)

European Environment Agency Future role of the SC: general To support scientifically EEA attempting to voice „independent” opinions and playing a complementary role to DGEnv; To inspire EEA with independent visions of European environmental problems; Quality control of procedures and publications to ensure that indicators and assessments are based on state-of- the-art science („watchdog” function).

European Environment Agency Future role of the SC: opinions Scientific matters concerning the Agency’s activities; Future environment, research outlook and emerging issues to direct EEA’s work programme; The role of EEA with regard to scientific aspects of policy issues; Work programmes, recruitments etc.; Relation of EEA and other institutions.

European Environment Agency Future role of the SC: scientific advises Topics and impact assessments of reports; EU research strategy keeping in mind EEA’s needs, utilization of results and outcomes; Initiation of assessments; SC members as EEA ambassadors;