Health Care and Social Assistance of an Ageing Society in Poland - characteristics and trends Berlin SCORUS Meeting, March 2010 Relations between Generations and the Challenges of an Ageing Society Anna Jasiówka, Marta Pompa, Monika Wałaszek

PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION 1. Ageing society in Poland: Demographic characteristics Demographic predictions (Central Statistical Office, United Nations) Comparison with Europe and rest of the world 2. Future changes in both health care and social assistance areas related to ageing of the Polish society - results of the forecast model: Estimation of an expected number of physicians Estimation of an expected number of nurses Estimation of an expected number of residents of stationary social welfare facilities Estimation of expenditure on social assistance

Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland PEOPLE OVER 65 AND CHILDREN BELOW 14 IN POLAND

VITAL STATISTICS OF POLISH POPULATION Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

LIFE EXPETANCY AT BIRTH Source: United Nations

RATIO OF PEOPLE OVER 65 TO THE TOTAL POPULATION Source: United Nations

CONCLUSIONS FOR POLISH SOCIETY Beginning from 2015 new trends will be observed: The number of live births will be lower than the number of deaths The number of people at the age of at least 65 will be higher than the number of children

The goal was to create a regression model, based on available data, in order to estimate the expected number of physicians and nurses in the future Because there is not enough data required to build an appropriate estimation model and there are hardly measurable qualitative data, we make the regression model by using two independent variables, which described the dependent variable (physicians, midwives) in the best possible way To obtain estimated value of dependent variable in the future, we used the CSO data on the population projection MODEL ASSUMPTION

PHYSICIANS = 3,53 * PEOPLE + 0,74 * NET MIGRATION Standard error of estimation Corrected R 2 0,97 BETA St. Error BETA B indicator St. Error Bp level Net migration0,230,070,740,210,00 People ,200,073,530,190, REGRESSION MODEL FOR PHYSICIANS

Standard error of estimation Corrected R 2 0, NURESES=0,0004*PEOPLE *NET MIGRATION+ 105*NET MIGRATION 2 BETA St. Error BETA B indicatorSt. Error Bp level Net migration 0,650, ,00 Net migration 2 0,370,1105,8280,00 People ,290,060,00040,000020,00 REGRESSION MODEL FOR NURSES

Total number People per one People over 65 per one Consulations per one physician Physicians now in in Nurses now in in ESTIMATION OUTCOMES

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER ONE PHYSICIAN

BETA St. Error BETA B indicator St. Error Bp level People over 441,230,020,00750,000110,00 People ,240,02-0,00230,00020,00 Standard error of estimation Corrected R 2 0, RESIDENS=0,0075*PEOPLE ,0023*PEOPLE 0-17 REGRESSION MODEL FOR RESIDENTS

People 65+ People %GDP People 65+ People %social expenditure Social expenditure for old people per capita PREDICTION MODEL FOR SOCIAL EXPENDITURE

Standard error of estimation 141 Corrected R 2 0,99 BETA St. Error BETA B indicatorSt. Error Bp level %GDP 2 0,260, ,44570,00 %SOCIAL EXPENDITURE 0,730, , ,00 EXPENDITURE=1 077,4*%GDP ,6*% SOCIAL EXPENDITURE REGRESSION MODEL FOR EXPENDITURE

Total number Employed Residents now in in Per capitaTotal Per one people 18 – 60/65 Expenditure now in in ESTIMATION OUTCOMES

OUTCOMES OF CORRESPONDANCE ANALYSIS IN THE AREA OF DISABILITY Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

OUTCOMES OF CORRESPONDANCE ANALYSIS FOR LONG-TERM HEALTH PROBLEMS AND CHRONIC DISEASES Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

OUTCOMES OF CORRESPONDANCE ANALYSIS FOR DISEASES AND AGE Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

Although the projected number of physicians will increase, one physician will give more medical consultations during a year than nowadays. It will be mainly a result of changes in the age structure of Polish population. Disparity between the voivodships will be observed when it comes to workload of physicians. It will be related to the expected number of old people different in each voivodship and greater health needs of these people. Increasing number of nurses may be insufficient to meet the needs of an aging population. CONCLUSIONS (1)

A group of people with long-term health problems, chronic diseases and disability which require greater medical care, will raise. It may cause, that increasing number of nurses will be insufficient. Increasing number of patients in institutions of social assistance will require raise the employment in these organization, if the standard workload of employees will be maintained. Otherwise it may lead to decline in service quality. The financial resources allocated to social assistance will be reduced which mainly come from the state budget. It will be a result of dwindling stocks of economically active people. CONCLUSIONS (2)

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