Bulgarian Academy of Sciences National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology An operational marine forecasting system for the Black Sea Dr. Georgi Kortchev JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Bulgaria Territory - 110,994 square kilometres Population – habitants JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012 Black Sea Surface area 436,402 km² (168,500 sq mi) Max depth 2,212 m (7,257 ft) Water volume 547,000 km 3 (131,200

NIMH-BAS: Institutional History 1860 – the first instrumental meteorological observations in Bulgaria carried out by the Austro-Hungarian consulate in Ruse for the purposes of navigation on the Danube River (10 years after the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850);1860 – the first instrumental meteorological observations in Bulgaria carried out by the Austro-Hungarian consulate in Ruse for the purposes of navigation on the Danube River (10 years after the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850); 1870 – the first hydrological station was established along the Danube River near the city of Ruse;1870 – the first hydrological station was established along the Danube River near the city of Ruse; 1880 – the second meteorological station in Bulgaria was opened again by the Austro-Hungarian consulate in Sofia;1880 – the second meteorological station in Bulgaria was opened again by the Austro-Hungarian consulate in Sofia; 1890, 20 February – the birth day of the Bulgarian Meteorological Service, when the Central Meteorological Station – Sofia was given the task to “organize and manage all stations”;1890, 20 February – the birth day of the Bulgarian Meteorological Service, when the Central Meteorological Station – Sofia was given the task to “organize and manage all stations”; 1892 – Bulgaria already had 14 working meteorological stations;1892 – Bulgaria already had 14 working meteorological stations; 1894, 1 January – by a Prince’s decree a Directorate of Meteorology was established within the Ministry of Education;1894, 1 January – by a Prince’s decree a Directorate of Meteorology was established within the Ministry of Education; JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

At the end of 2010 we celebrated JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Visit at NIMH-BAS JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

NIMH – BAS: Current status NIMH-BAS – major BG research and operational Institute in the field of Meteorology, Agrometeorology, Hydrology and Water resources assessment; Current staff of NIMH-BAS: 732 people; Current staff of NIMH-BAS: 732 people; 51 – DSc and PhD;51 – DSc and PhD; 47 – Senior researchers (SR);47 – Senior researchers (SR); 41 – Junior researchers (JR);41 – Junior researchers (JR); 4 Regional Centers;4 Regional Centers; Regional Center Varna ;Regional Center Varna ; Marine meteorology staff (2 SR + 2 JR – Sofia ; 6 Marine Met Forecasters – Varna; 30 Marine observers)Marine meteorology staff (2 SR + 2 JR – Sofia ; 6 Marine Met Forecasters – Varna; 30 Marine observers) JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

NIMH – BAS: MMP The Bulgarian Marine meteorology programme (MMP) in accordance with the recommendations of WMO’s MMOP provides data, products and services for all users in the national maritime sector  Maritime transport & safety; safety;  Marine environment;  Fisheries;  Coastal management;  Research & development;  Disaster Risk Reduction;  Tourism;  General public JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

The Bulgarian Black Sea Coast is an important center of tourism during the summer season (May–October), drawing millions of foreign and local tourists. The golden sandy beaches occupy approximately 130 km of the 378 km of coastline. The two largest cities and main seaports on the Bulgarian Riviera are Varna and Burgas. The Bulgarian marine resorts are one of the major and most important end-user of Marine meteorological information JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

NIMH-BAS: Operational marine forecasting system TOULOUSE Global Atmospheric model ARPEGE NIMH-BASSOFIA Limited area atmospheric model ALADIN Wave models WW3, WAM, SWAN Storm surge modelSLBUL Oil spill modelMOTHY Internet End users JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

NIMH-BAS operational marine forecasting system (cont.) The NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system is a result of the scientific collaboration between NIMH-BAS and Meteo-France;The NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system is a result of the scientific collaboration between NIMH-BAS and Meteo-France; A fully tested and automated wave forecasting system is in operational use in NIMH-BAS since 2003 and continuously being upgraded;A fully tested and automated wave forecasting system is in operational use in NIMH-BAS since 2003 and continuously being upgraded; The main purpose of the system is the real time wind, waves, storm surge and oil spill drift (in case of an accident) forecast for the Black Sea area;The main purpose of the system is the real time wind, waves, storm surge and oil spill drift (in case of an accident) forecast for the Black Sea area; JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Wave models in operational use NIMH-BAS operates tree models for wave prediction: WAVEWATCH III (WW3), version 3.14 – third generation wave model (NCEP);WAVEWATCH III (WW3), version 3.14 – third generation wave model (NCEP); WAM, cycle 4 – third generation wave model (ECMWF);WAM, cycle 4 – third generation wave model (ECMWF); SWAN, version – a high-resolution wave forecasting model suitable for the wave propagation in the coastal zone (TU-DELFT);SWAN, version – a high-resolution wave forecasting model suitable for the wave propagation in the coastal zone (TU-DELFT); JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Wind forcing The surface wind components at 10 m from the numerical weather prediction operational models ARPEGE and ALADIN are used to force the wave models;The surface wind components at 10 m from the numerical weather prediction operational models ARPEGE and ALADIN are used to force the wave models; The wind fields are available on 3 hour intervals to (T+72) on a regular latitude-longitude resolution grid with:The wind fields are available on 3 hour intervals to (T+72) on a regular latitude-longitude resolution grid with: ARPEGE: 0.25°x0.25° mesh size ARPEGE: 0.25°x0.25° mesh size ALADIN: 0.125°x0.125° mesh size ALADIN: 0.125°x0.125° mesh size JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Wind forcing (ARPEGE / ALADIN NWP Models) The official numerical weather forecasting tool in NIMH – BAS is LAM ALADIN (Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational); The official numerical weather forecasting tool in NIMH – BAS is LAM ALADIN (Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational); The model is common development of scientists from 15 meteorological services. This is a spectral model for regional forecasting of meteorological fields. The model is common development of scientists from 15 meteorological services. This is a spectral model for regional forecasting of meteorological fields. Initial and boundary conditions are provided global model ARPEGE Initial and boundary conditions are provided global model ARPEGE JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

ALADIN: Region & Orography JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Operational Wave forecast The wave models (WW3, WAM and SWAN) run in forecast mode, twice daily, based on 06:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC;The wave models (WW3, WAM and SWAN) run in forecast mode, twice daily, based on 06:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC; Wave products are available through a Internet to the Regional meteorological forecasting center in Varna and end-users;Wave products are available through a Internet to the Regional meteorological forecasting center in Varna and end-users; The NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system issues “warnings of danger” in case of storm situations in the Black Sea;The NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system issues “warnings of danger” in case of storm situations in the Black Sea; In order to ensure an effective warning system and avoid public confusion, the single official voice for the issue of all weather and marine warnings and advisories must be the NMS/NHMS (WMO)In order to ensure an effective warning system and avoid public confusion, the single official voice for the issue of all weather and marine warnings and advisories must be the NMS/NHMS (WMO) JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Wave models output Products from the numerical wave models: Significant wave height; Mean direction of wave propagation; Mean period; Swell wave height; Mean Swell direction; Mean Swell period JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Storm on the Black Sea: 7-8 February 2012 JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Storm on the Black Sea: 7-8 February 2012 JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Storm on the Black Sea: 7-8 February 2012 JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012 Predicted pattern of wind speed & direction for the Black Sea on February 7 and 8, 2012, ALADIN limited area atmospheric model

Sea state forecast (WAVEWATCH III, SWAN) Satellite tracks SWH altimeter data along the ENVISAT JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

High resolution coastal zone wave model SWAN (Simulating the Waves Near Shore) JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012 Predicted pattern of significant wave height and mean wave direction for the Black Sea at 00 UTC on February 8, 2012, SWAN wave model

Time series (SWAN) of SWH, wind speed&direction, Black Sea storm: 7-8/2012, St. Shabla JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Satellite tracks SWH altimeter data along the Jason-1 и ENVISAT Satellite tracks SWH altimeter data along the Jason-1 и ENVISAT JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

The existing operational forecast set-up JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012 Configuration&Name Resolution & CoverageForecast WAVEWATCH III Black Sea ° x ° lat/long grid (~14 km), 40°-47°N, 27°-42°E Twice daily at 06 and 18 UTC, out to 3 days at 3- hourly resolution SWAN Black Sea coast ° x ° lat/long grid (~1 km ), N, E N, E Twice daily at 06 and 18 UTC, out to 3 days at 3- hourly resolution SWAN Black Sea Bay of Bourgas, ° x ° lat/long grid (~0.5 km), ° x ° lat/long grid (~0.5 km), 42°.35-42°.7N, 27°.45-27°.9E Quasi- operational

NIMH - Oil spill drift forecast Tanker transportation is the source of potential risks of the oil pollution in the Black Sea;Tanker transportation is the source of potential risks of the oil pollution in the Black Sea; The operational oil spill drift forecasting model of Meteo-France (MOTHY) was adopted for the Black Sea;The operational oil spill drift forecasting model of Meteo-France (MOTHY) was adopted for the Black Sea; JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Simulation of the oil slick Bay of Bourgas (Black Sea) JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Conclusions The marine system is designed to: Describe and forecast the Black Sea surface state; Describe and forecast the Black Sea surface state; Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution;Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution; Protect life and property on coasts and at sea;Protect life and property on coasts and at sea; Enable scientific research;Enable scientific research; The system is the component of the current Bulgarian National hydro-meteorological information system and a major component of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. The system is the component of the current Bulgarian National hydro-meteorological information system and a major component of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012

Thank you for your attention! JCOMM-4, Yeosu, May, 2012