Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Some Insights From Australia by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre, The University of Adelaide Presentation to Population Ageing and the Labour Market International Research Workshop, Gallagher Academy of Performing Arts, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand 2 nd February 2012

Outline of Presentation Introduction Demographic Dimensions of Ageing in Australia The Intergenerational Report Labour Market Impacts Where Will the Future Workforce Come From? Baby Boomers and Work Conclusion

Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006

Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2011; Population Reference Bureau 2010 and 2011; ABS 2011; Statistics New Zealand, 2011

Contemporary Dynamics of Australian Population Change Mortality Fertility Migration Ageing

Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2011 Source: ABS 1997 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth MalesFemales

Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, , and 2009 Source: ABS YearMalesFemales

Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2009 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

Baby Boomers % of Australian Population 41.8% of Australian Workforce

Australia: Differences Between Age Groups at 30th June, 2010 Source: ABS 2011, Australian Demographic Statistics September Quarter 2010, p.19

Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B) Source: ABS 2008 Projections

The Third Intergenerational Report Source: Swan 2010, p.xi

The Third Intergenerational Report (cont) Source: Swan 2010, p.xvi

Responding to the Implications of an Ageing Population Source: Swan 2010, p.xiii

Population and Workforce Change, (McDonald 2011) Net increase in jobs 207,000 or 2.1% p.a. Net increase in population 1.5% p.a. Components of change - 12% increased participation - 88% population increase, mainly migration

Future Demand for Workers Budget: 200,000 net new workers per year If pattern is continued – 2.55m extra jobs by 2020 Skills Australia projects around an extra 4.36m workers by 2025

Where Will the Extra Workers Come From? Internal Entrants to the workforce outnumbering those leaving it Increased participation levels External Net permanent migration Temporary migration

“Population” Issues Not just numerical – crucial to productivity Importance of training – productivity Impact on training system

Australia: Population Aged 18-24, Actual 1961 to 2006 and Projected 2011 to 2031 Source: ABS Censuses and ABS 2008 Projections, Series B

Increase in Post School Training Participation Levels Demands for a more skilled and better trained labour force Government objective to lift percentage of year olds with a university education from 32 to 40% Added pressure of education export industry currently valued at AUD$17.2 billion

Australia: A Country of Immigration 24 percent born overseas 26 percent Australia-born with an overseas-born parent(s) 924,520 persons temporarily present at 30/6/10 140,610 incoming permanent settlers in ,311 “onshore” settlers in ,277 permanent departures in Around 1 million Australians living in another country

Higher Degree Qualification by Australia- and Overseas-Born, Source:1981 to 2001 Census One Percent files, ABS 2006 Census

External Sources of Workers Permanent Migration Temporary Migration

Source: Hoffmann, 2011

Participation Issues Recent increase only in older ages Need to increase participation among excluded groups Need to increase transition from disability to work Need to increase older worker participation 60% of older persons leaving the workforce do so involuntarily (Knox 2003)

Australia: Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, March 2000 and 2011 Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, March 2011

Baby Boomers and Work Compared to previous generations Current workforce perspectives Health and welfare participation

Educational Attainment Baby Boomers and their Parents at Age Source: ABS 1981; 2006

Employment Status by Gender Baby Boomers and their Parents at Age Source: ABS 1981; 2006 NB: Not stated excluded

Employment and Volunteering Status – Baby Boomers Source: NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

Employment Status by Each Baby Boomer Age Cohort and by Gender Source: NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

Hours per Week in Paid Work by Age Cohort and by Gender Source: NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

Employment by Self Rated Health Status – Baby Boomers Source: NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

Baby boomers with Poor Self Rated Health by Labour Force Status, Age Cohort, and Gender Source: NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), In the labour force=f/time, p/time, casual, unemployed; 2 Not in the labour force=retired, home duties, unable to work **p<.001

Australia: Percentage of Population Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, Source: ABS 2008, p.7

Conclusion Australia is well placed demographically to meet challenges of next two decades - fertility level - positive attitude towards immigration - excellent immigration infrastructure - economic buoyancy - ageing is manageable However to capitalise on these advantages will require sound policy intervention and development across a range of areas