Alan M. Haywood 1, Daniel J. Hill 1/2, Aisling M. Dolan 1, Daniel J. Lunt 3 and PlioMIP Participants 1 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,

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Presentation transcript:

Alan M. Haywood 1, Daniel J. Hill 1/2, Aisling M. Dolan 1, Daniel J. Lunt 3 and PlioMIP Participants 1 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Contact 2 British Geological Survey, Keyworth, UK; 3 University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. EGU : Pliocene constraints on longer term climate sensitivity 5. Earth System Sensitivity6. Reducing Uncertainty in ESS: Time Slice 3. Multi-Model Means 1. Background PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) represents the first time that a period with higher than pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO 2 and global temperatures within the range predicted for 2100AD has been subjected to a rigorous PMIP-style model intercomparison (Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project). The first experiment is for atmospheric-only General Circulation Models (GCMs), while the second is for atmosphere-ocean GCMs, which we focus on here. The mid-Pliocene warm period has provided a focus for data synthesis and palaeoclimate modelling for the last two decades and is now being used to address Climate Sensitivity. Earth System Sensitivity (or longer term Climate Sensitivity). Is the equilibrium global mean near-surface (~2 m) air temperature response to a sustained doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, including all feedbacks and processes apart from those associated with the carbon cycle itself. By taking account of long timescale feedbacks, models can be used to estimate ESS. PlioMIP Modelling Groups - Experiment 2 GroupContactsModel Hadley - UKAlan Haywood, Dan Lunt, Fran BraggHadCM3 NCAR Bette Otto-Bliesner and Nan Rosenbloom CCSM4 GISSMark ChandlerGISS Model ER Bjerknes/BergenKerim H. NisanciogluNorESM IAP/CAS Zheng Weipeng, Zhang Zhongshi, Qing Yang FGOALS-g2.0, FOAM1.5 Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing Le Chan, Ryota O'ishi MIROC 3.2 GCM Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Christian StepanekCOSMOS Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment (LSCE) Camille Contoux, Anne Jost, Gilles Ramstein IPSLCM5A University of TsukubaYouichi Kamae, Hiroaki UedaMRI-CGCM Participating Models and Global ΔSAT/SST & Climate Sensitivity Top left : warm peak averaging of Pliocene SSTs. Top right: orbital solutions to identify a time slice for future palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Insolation predictions from the La04 solution for modern (left), 3060 kyr minus modern (middle), 3205 kyr minus modern (right). 4. Individual Model Anomalies Left: PlioMIP Experiment 2 multi-model mean anomalies for SAT (°C; top), SST (°C; middle) and total precipitation rate (mm/day; bottom). Middle same as left but showing zonal averages. Right: standard deviation of left panels. PlioMIP models Δ global annual mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (  C) compared to estimates of each models Climate Sensitivity. Left: PlioMIP Experiment 2 model anomalies for annual mean SAT (°C) for (A) CCSM4, (B) COSMOS, (C) GISS- E2-R, (D) HadCM3, (E) IPSLCM5A. (F) MIROC4m, (G) MRI- CGCM2.3, (H) NorESM-L. Right: same as Left but for Total Precipitation Rate (mm/day). Here, we use the PlioMIP simulations from Experiment 2 to estimate ESS using a similar approach to Lunt et al. (2010). In these experiments the Pliocene orographic effect is negligible and we consider the elevated CO 2 to be the ultimate forcing of the simulated Pliocene warmth, and thus our simulations represent the equilibrium state of the world at 405 ppmv CO 2. To convert this into the usual definition of ESS (i.e. a CO 2 doubling from 280 to 560 ppmv), the Pliocene warming is multiplied by ln(560.0/280.0)/ln(405.0/280.0) = 1.88.