Forecasting FTES Using a Yield Projection Model Presented at the 2009 RP/CISOA Conference Tahoe City, CA: April 27, 2009 Sam Ballard, Research Analyst Daniel Miramontez, Research Analyst San Diego Community College District

Enrollment FTES for = 41,925 – College Total = 31,938 – Continuing Education Total = 9,987 Number of sections offered at colleges in = 11,132 Duplicated Headcount = 397, % increase in Fall 2008 growth

Office of Institutional Research & Planning Organizational Chart Vice Chancellor of Student Services Campus Based Researchers (4) District Research Analysts (3) Research Associates (3) Director of Institutional Research and Planning Senior Clerical Assistant

Office of Institutional Research & Planning Scope of Work Research and Information for: Program and services – Program review reports (i.e., EOPS, TRIO, etc.) External accrediting agencies – Accreditation self-study reports for WASC/ACCJC Accountability – ARCC report Planning and decision-making process – Productivity and projection reports (i.e. FTES)

FTES Yield Projection Model Yield Model – Adjusts to the number of sections being offered in the current term – Takes the previous yields multiplied by the current sections being offered

Purpose Primary function of the FTES Yield Projection Model – Manage growth and enrollment establish growth targets – Budget development budget guidelines Who uses the information – Chancellor – College Presidents – Vice Chancellors Instruction, Student Services and Business Services FTES Yield Projection Model Pilot Testing – Last 3 years (06 07, 07 08, 08 09)

Method Start with FTES file from comparable term from previous year Make exclusions – i.e. cancelled sections, non-residents Total by different variables – i.e. accounting method, subject, course number Calculate number of sections per course – i.e. 27 sections of PSYC 101

Method Cont. Calculate FTES for the total number of sections – FTES for 27 sections Calculate yield by dividing total FTES by the number of sections – i.e /27 = 3.72 FTES per section

Method Cont. Now get file with current sections offered Aggregate the number of sections offered – Current term is offering 20 sections of PSYC 101 Match prior year’s yields to current term – Unique ID (PSYC101) Multiply number of current sections by previous year’s yield – i.e. 20 sections * 3.72 yield = 74.4 FTES

Method Cont. Adjustments – Change in number of sections – CT – ((CT-PT)/PT) – Multiply adjusted sections by.99 Increase Yields – Yield can be adjusted according to current trends – yield

Results In the past three years we projected spring during fall – Spring 2006 to 2007 The projection was off by 243 FTES -1.81% error – Spring 2007 to 2008 The projection was off by 654 FTES -4.78% error

Results Cont. – Spring 2008 to 2009 The projection was off by 605 FTES -4.44% error Data as of 4/8/09

Discussion Limitations – Can only be calculated when the schedule is ready – New courses are given a marginal mean – Only used for three years Possible Improvements – Add factors unemployment rate fill rates physical improvements % increase from term

Worksheet Exercise!

Discussion Questions What do you see as other limitations of this model? What are other ways to improve this model? How does this model compare to other projection models?