1 Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies

2 What are our end-users expecting?

3 Is it UMTS? What’s that! Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either. Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing. Is it cheap, high speed, reliable service with killer applications? Yes, most definitely!!

4 Wireless Usage Will Soar [Source: Merrill Lynch] Rapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usage

5 Wireless Market Perspective Early 80’s: How many cars need a telephone? Late 90’s: How many people need a telephone? Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes. Time Premium Service ‘92 Conventional Wisdom ‘94 CW ‘97 CW ‘98CW 50% _ 40%_ 30%_ 20%_ 10%_ 0% _ % Penetration Did not anticipate portable phone. Did not anticipate pre-paid ‘99CW Did not anticipate ???

6 How do we take them there? 4 Networks - today’s networks are data capable. Operators need to start there migration today to keep up with the future network demands of tomorrow. Through an evolution of: 4 Applications - internet, location based services and transaction based applications over WAP will drive demand 4 Markets - operators need to determine what type of role they want to play in wireless data and what market segments to go after

7 09 February, 2000 Internet and Mobile Subscriber Penetration Source: ARC Group

8 Data Rates for Wireless Services 30 Mass Market Demand (5 year view) Credit Card Verification Short Message Services Remote Office Integrated Messaging Large File Transfer Multimedia WWW Wireless Postcard Data rates assume lightly loaded packet channel. Optimized media access control necessary to assure adequate response time in high usage case. Video/ Multimedia Conference Limited Broadcast Video Networked computing Fax Kbps 144 Kbps 2 Mbps384 Kbps14.4 Kbps 9.6 Kbps Data Rate <9.6 Kbps E-Banking/ E-Commerce Web Clipping Interactive Games & Entertainment

9 2.5G & 3G enables personalization and integration – Individualized services across multiple networks – Seamless personal service delivery – Online, anywhere, anytime -- always on – m - commerce Today’s Today’s communications are via multiple devices with the dependence on interfacing with intranets for timely business information Where The Internet And Mobility Intersect Internet Mobility

10 Buildings Computers People Homes Appliances Transportation Vehicles & Systems Vending Machines $ Communications Network Transformation á Multiple Connections per Person á Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices á Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go: n Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications n Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability n Converged Services available via multiple forms of access. á Multiple Connections per Person á Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices á Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go: n Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications n Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability n Converged Services available via multiple forms of access. Intelligent Subscriber Devices People to People People to Things Things to Things

11 Influences on IMT-2000 “Family of Systems” A “Family of Systems” for IMT-2000 services, ensuring network standards interoperability. Cdma2000 & DoCoMo WCDMA ARIB & TTC ANSI-41 / WIN & GSM-MAP/CAMEL Asia/ Pacific Cdma2000 & UWC-136 ANSI-41/ WIN TIA TR 45 North America UTRA GSM-MAP / CAMEL Europe ETSI

12 Network Options for GSM & cdmaOne Data Evolution per Ovum Research cdmaOne Network Options 3X3X No 3X cdmaOneIS-95AcdmaOneIS-95A X1X GSM Network Options Source: Ovum Research Published: Mobile Communications InternationalUMTSUMTS No UMTS HSCDHSCD GPRSGPRS GSMGSM EDGEEDGE IS-95BIS-95B

13 IMT-2000 Evolution Path Options 2G 2.5G 3G/ IMT-2000 Services Existing Spectrum GSM900,1800 GPRS GSM MOU GSM GSM 1900 GPRS ETSI W-CDMA 3G NNI GSM N. America Existing Spectrum New Spectrum EDGE IS-95A ANSI-95 IS-95B cdma2000 Phase MHz cdma2000 Phase 2 5MHz CDG ANSI-41 New Software Changes to BS and Mobile New HW and/or SW New Mobiles/Data Device Utilize Existing Voice Channels New Software New Circuit Packs New Mobiles Existing Mobiles Still Compatible New BS & SW New Mobiles/Data Device Utilize Existing Voice Channels New Software New BS Modules New Mobiles Existing Mobiles Still Compatible New Spectrum New Air Interface New Mobiles Backward Compatibility with GSM-MAP

14 Summary It’s critical that we do not get consumed by the technology but stay focused on the END-USER needs DoCoMo has shown us all that the issue is not access but providing key marketable applications to the end-user Even with all the efforts of the OHG there are still at least 3 distinct paths in supporting an evolution to IMT l Existing cdmaOne operators should deploy a 1XRTT solution migrating to 3G3X (CDMA2000) l Existing GSM operators will migrate to GPRS/EDGE migrating to UMTS through the purchase of new spectrum l Existing TDMA operators will follow a similar path as GSM stopping at EDGE Bottom line is that migration to a digital wireless network should begin “TODAY” regardless of the access network that you are operating