The War in Iraq The Gulf War to Present

Operation Desert Storm 1991 US forces expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait Shiites in south and Kurds in north rose up against Saddam’s forces (with US encouragement) US troops did not assist/defend Shiite or Kurds Saddam attacks Shiite in south and Kurds in north, 30,000+ killed Kurds flee to mountains in Turkey, die of exposure

Mistakes in 1991 Encouraged rebellion, but didn’t support them which led to mistrust of US troops in the future Approved exception to no-fly zone, which allowed Iraqi helicopters to shoot up southern cities Assumed that Saddam’s regime was so damaged that fall was inevitable U.S. military didn’t undercut core of Saddam’s power, allowed Republican Guard troops to leave Kuwait almost untouched = slaughter in the south

Operation Provide Comfort A US led relief operation in northern Iraq Brought 10s of thousands of Kurds down from the mountains, feeding, sheltering and later bringing them home First major long term US military operation on Iraqi soil Began as air dropping supplies to Kurds in mountains to keep them alive Next, built tent camps to house them Pushed Iraqi military back far enough to return Kurds to their homes Main task became containment of Iraq under Zinni (p11)

Containment What was it? “Ringing Saddam with military forces, building up ground facilities in Kuwait, flying war planes over much of his territory, and periodically pummeling Iraqi military and intelligence facilities with missiles and bombs” No-fly zones in north and south Zinni claims it worked: Iraqi military shrank to ½ size, old equipment, poorly trained troops, decaying force Wolfowitz disagrees with this policy, compares Saddam to Hitler

Containment cont. How it functioned: US pilots flew from bases in south-central Turkey & Saudi Arabia – fighter and surveillance planes – 20 planes total including fuel tankers Patrols lasted 4-8 hours $1 billion / year No planes lost Saddam’s words more threatening than actions in order to prove strength to his people- no-fly, WMD’s

Desert Fox day bombing campaign under Zinni Reaction to standoff with Saddam over weapons inspections Main sites hit: facilities for production and storage of chemical weapons & missiles to deliver them, also gov. command & control facilities Surprisingly effective despite criticism Nearly knocked Saddam out of power Arab nations were asking if we had a plan if Saddam fell, we didn’t Zinni requested war game on aftermath of Saddam’s fall and pushed for government planning to no avail

Desert Fox cont. In Washington Desert Fox’s effectiveness is questioned Not until after second invasion is true effectiveness realized, pretty much destroyed Iraqi weapons programs Had this been realized there wouldn’t have been reason for second invasion Problem: Saddam tightened security, became more secretive, left the US in the dark w/ imagination running wild Zinni vs Wolfowitz Zinni- arming rebels will draw US into long drawn-out conflict Wolfowitz- overthrow will be cheap and easy Powell pushes for “smart sanctions”

Paul Wolfowitz

Anthony Zinni

9/11 Changes Everything Prior to 9/11 Wolfowitz was a minority, largely ignored Provided political opening for Wolfowitz, Islamic Extremist- based terrorism 3 targets for war on terror: al Qaeda, Afghanistan’s Taliban, Iraq Some began pushing Iraq threat, WMD’s & sharing them with terrorists Intel community loses credibility, if they missed 9/11 what else are they missing? Planning for Iraq begins 2001, immediately debate over # of troops begins 2002 State of the Union, “Axis of Evil” Iran, Iraq, N. Korea