German External Relations: Institutions Against Drifting in Global Times Lecture Klaus Segbers Free University of Berlin March 2003

Content 1Global Context 2National Context 3Germany‘s Political Agenda 4German Position re. USA and Iraq 5Lessons from Slipping into a War

1.1Global Context ( IV glob 1-4 ) Multipolar configuration Multitude of actors Relative decline of state governability Significant changes re. sovereignty and territoriality

1.2Global Context ( IV glob 5– 7 ) Medialization of political agendas >>> Ad-hocism as predominant mode of politics >>> Declining consistency of politics >>> Legitimacy gaps

2.1National Context ( IV nat 1-3 ) „Zivilmacht“ (civil power concept) Corporatism (politics as bargaining and mediatrion) „Handelsstaat“ (trading state)

2.2National Context ( IV nat 4-6 ) Historical Contingencies >>> Unification of 1991 >>> Normalization and pragmatization of Germany‘s foreign relations

2.3 National Context ( IV nat 7- 9 ) Politics of integration Politics of institution building Social and non-state dimensions

3.1Causing factors for Germany‘s fp Permanent media exposure Permanent elections Changing coalitions Multi-level games

3.2Topics and interests Maintaining and developing of effective institutions and regimes Europe: Stability pact Europe: Enlargement Europe: Institutional reforms Europe: GASP/ CFSP Demographic trends: regulating migrations Future role of U.S.A.: balancing or inclusion

4.1 Germany‘s foreign policy since September 2002: Background Tactical mission: winning elections. Excessive statements......lead to self-constraints of the governing coalition: parties and society as constraints. „Zivilmacht“ by default, not design...

4.2Constraints on Germany‘s foreign behavior Attempts to avoid isolation; cooperation with France and Russia, China Non-communication with U.S.A. Mutual dependency b/w; pressure and need for domestic reforms and and foreign behavior

4.3(Past) Options (Rather recent) attempts to build a win-position >>>... failed: U.S.A. will act no matter what (costs of non- action too high; corresponds national security strategy/ ideology; geo-economic motivations; group thinking)

5.1Lessons: Substantial problems with unilateral U.S. Politics toward Iraq What is the mission? WMDs? Regime change? Korea? Rebuilding Iraq: what commitments are there? Consequences for the Near and Middle East – political and social Consequences for „Fight against terrorism“ Oil prices and effects on world markets/ national economies Consequences for future behavior of the U.S.A.

5.2Lessons: Consequences and questions  How to achieve an equilibrium of global asymmetric configurations of actors?  Is it possible to institutionalize the U.S. in a global world?  How to modernize and stabilize the Near and Middle East?  How to control WMD‘s?  Can the GASP/ CFSP be re-build, re-activated?  What are relevant macro- tendencies b/w anarchy; institutionalization; selective stability?

5.3 Lessons from Slipping into another War  Either give the U.S. a wild card, or build and maintain effective institutions  Rethink election cycles  Reflect media influence and modi operandi

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