Labour Supply by Occupation: Available Data and Their Use in Quebec Richard Legris, Emploi-Québec Alain Rousseau, Quebec department of education, recreation and sport (MELS in French) Workshop on Labour Supply by Occupation FLMM-LMI Work Group October 17 and 18, 2007, Vancouver

2 Presentation Outline A few remarks about Emploi-Québec and how vocational and technical training is organized in Quebec Occupational outlook - estimated demand Training-employment balance - managing supply to demand Meshing data on labour supply and demand: presentation of the health sector model

3 Structure of Emploi-Québec Government agency – part of the Quebec department of education, recreation and sports (Ministère de l’Éducation, des Loisirs et du Sport du Québec – MELS) - employment services to the public / social solidarity services Major role of labour market partnerships: a labour market partners board (Commission des partenaires du marché du travail – CPMT), regional boards (17) and sectoral committees (30) Decentralized management: 17 regional boards and approximately 145 local employment centres (CLEs) and delivery points In : A budget of approximately $1 billion for the workforce and employers (not including last-resort funding of $2.7 billion) 259,000 individuals received employability assistance 128,000 Quebecers obtained employment through Emploi-Québec

4 Vocational and Technical Training in Qubec 70 school boards offer vocational training: 142 programs leading to a vocational diploma (DEP) 26 programs leading to an Attestation of Vocational Specialization (AVS or ASP in French) 30 short basic programs leading to a vocational studies certificate (AEP) 48 general and vocational colleges (CÉGEPs) offer technical training: 114 programs leading to a college diploma (DEC) Over 1,000 basic programs leading to an attestation of collegial studies (AEC in French)

5 Programs of study linked directly to the needs of the labour market and of individuals through training design based on: a skills-oriented approach (APC in French) a skills-oriented approach (APC in French) … ensuring that programs of study correspond more closely with labour market requirements (qualitative component) and actual labour requirements, and actual labour requirements, thereby ensuring a balance between the training supply and labour market needs in terms of structure and anticipated growth (quantitative component). thereby ensuring a balance between the training supply and labour market needs in terms of structure and anticipated growth (quantitative component).

6 Occupational Outlook in Quebec In Quebec, 16 economic regions and the CMAs of Montreal and Quebec City Five-year projections for approx. 500 occupations Prospective analysis supported by a labour market watch and the participation of our partners Reviewed annually

7 The Quebec Labour Market Drop in the unemployment rate (supply) Aging workforce Working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will start to decline in 2012 Effective balancing is increasingly important

8 Occupational Outlook: Characteristics 520 occupations: uniformity of method Similar occupations that follow different courses of training: supply that is not evident in one occupational area will surface in another Capacity to meet labour market needs is limited by available supply

9 Labour Demand: The Starting Point... The Conference Board’s macro scenario Estimated labour needs by sector (market expansion) Estimated needs by occupation (market expansion) Replacement needs (retirement and mobility between occupations) Total demand by occupation

10 Labour Supply: Hiring Capacity Difficulty to produce a forecast for each occupation under study Option selected: estimate of the supply at the beginning of the time period (estimated unemployment rate by occupation) Verification by means of EI recipient data MELS: important input concerning the latest supply of graduates

11 Labour Market Watch - Objectives To chart the progress of occupations and corresponding training programs where placement problems are encountered at either the regional level or in Quebec as a whole To find solutions to these problems where training is just one of many strategies To involve partners other than the MELS and Emploi-Québec in solving the problems identified To be able to produce regular updates on the training-employment balance for the principal (critical) occupations identified in a given region

12 SUPPLY WATCH Recipients of Employment Assistance and Insurance Labour force and unemployment rate Recent and future graduates Demographic evolution Hiring surveys (La Relance) DEMAND WATCH Analysis of labour market trends Employment outlook Occupations in demand Online placement - job vacancies Analysis of economic and structural conditions Indicators (regions and Quebec as a whole) Active Labour Market Watch Immigration

13 Diagnosis of Labour Needs Indicators (regions and Quebec as a whole) Action (regions and Quebec as a whole) Emploi-Québec Immigration Course content map Promotion and validation Training-employment balance Alignment plan Action plan LMI Promotion and validation … Education Active Labour Market Watch Active Labour Market Watch

14 The Training-Employment Balance Use of a diagnostic tool that allows us to determine the number of individuals that need to be trained to ensure that a sufficient quantity of skilled workers is available in every region of Quebec

15 - based on the linkage between training programs and occupations (NOC) - based on the estimated labour and labour replacement needs specified in Emploi-Québec’s occupational outlooks for takes into account student behaviour with respect to qualifications and the pursuit of higher learning The Model for Training-Employment Balance

16 Planning for Labour in the Health Sector A study conducted by the Quebec department of health and social services (MSSS) and its partners to: –determine the actual situation in each occupation –forecast the size of the labour force over 15 years –define recruitment requirements –reach agreement with partners on possible components of an action plan

An example of integration: supply demand An example of integration: supply demand Initial shortage or surplus Annual growth rate - needs Need for recruitment Labour requirements Graduation rate Graduates’ participation rate Need for entrants Initial workforce Actual entrants Demographic forecasts Expected number of graduates DEMANDDEMANDDEMANDDEMAND SUPPLYSUPPLYSUPPLYSUPPLY Health Sector Education Network Departures: retirement, death, resignation

Thank you very much for your attention!! Questions, comments …

APPENDIX

QUEBEC’S EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM: Overall structure Primary - 6 years (6-12) Secondary - 5 years (age 12-17) Prechool - 1 year long (age 5) 1 re 2 e 3 e 4 e 5 e D.E.S. Specialized Trades Technology Professions Labour Market Continuous Training Doctorate Master ’s Undergraduate (3 - 4 yrs) University 16 yrs old + 1L, 2L and level-4 math for certain programs or 16 yrs old + first language (1L), 2L and level-3 math for certain programs D.E.S. College Pre-university Training (2 years) DEC Technical Training (3 years) DEC DEP Vocational Training DEP : 600 to 1,800 hrs ASP : 330 to 900 hrs DEP

Active Watch Data Available Labour: Results by occupation for Emploi-Québec’s occupational outlook model for the regions and Quebec as a whole occupations in demand for the regions and Quebec as a wholeEducation: Number of enrolments per vocational and technical program for the regions and Quebec as a whole Diplomas awarded by program for the regions and Quebec as a whole Course content map La Relance (hiring surveys) NOC correspondence chart - training programs Projected graduation numbers