Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

PRUDENCE PROJECT Prediction Uncertainties Describing European Climate change and Effects M. Inés Mínguez, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona, Miguel Quemada and Federico Sau IT: Daniel del Valle Sergio de Gruijter UPM & USC Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

RCMs A2 & B2 SCENARIOS (SRES) FORCING Agricultural Impact (Crop Models) AGCMs Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

RCMs in PRUDENCE Comparison among 9 RCMs Forcing with 1 RGM: HadAM3H (less in Arpège RCM which has it’s own forcing s.) 2 climate change scenarios: A2 & B2 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

RCMs in PRUDENCE 1. HadRM3H (HC: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) 2. RegCM (ICTP: The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physiscs) 3. CHRM (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology) 4. RACMO (KNMI: The Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute) 5. ARPÈGE (MF: Meteo France) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

RCMs in PRUDENCE 6. CLM (GKSS: GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM; Institute for Coastal Research) 7. REMO (MPI: Max Planck Institute for Meteorological Research) 8. PROMES (UCM: Universidad Complutense de Madrid) 9. HIRHAM (DMI: Danish Meteorological Institute) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Crop models used in PRUDENCE Physiological type models: DSSAT3.5-CERES (mechanistic model; Jones et. al., 2003) Cropping system-type model: CropSyst (simpler model; Stockle et al., 2003) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Non-linear response in both types.

Compensating effects of climate change reflected in models CO 2 increase (for a given T)  –Increase in photosynthetic rates –Decrease in Transpiration rates (ET) T increase  - Increase in evapotranspiration (ET) - Shorter crop cycles (thermal time) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Crop models used in PRUDENCE INPUTS: Daily weather data: SR, Tmax, Tmin, P (Optional: VPD, wind speed) Soil profile caracteristics LL, DUL & SAT (for each soil layer) Species charaterisitics (eg wheat) and variety (eg cv. Anza, Marius) Genetic coefficients that allow to define thousands of genotypes Soil initial conditions (soil water content) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

Crop simulations Climate change impact assessment - Use of winter (wheat) vs summer crops (maize) to discriminate between seasons -Crop management (Irrigated and Rainfed) for changing uncertainty levels CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

Adding Uncertainties from the RCMs predictions from the crop models per se from the extrapolation of crop models, tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain soil profiles (DUL, LL, SAT and depth) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Changing uncertainty levels Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Greater uncertainty level: rain-fed systems Rainfall data Soil profiles: LL, DUL, SAT, depth Initial soil conditions Crop responses to water stress CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Smaller uncertainty level: irrigated systems (if water available) Potential yield simulation (elimination of water stress) Spatial variability in soil textures and depth has much less influence in yield Rainfall predictions do not affect yields Effect of Tmax, Tmin and SR Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Crop model calibration and validation has to focus on the main processes involved at crop and cropping systems level phenology, biomass and yield ETc and net irrigation requirements Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Spatial scales with impact models Crop model calibration and validation: Site-specific Some agricultural areas outside the calibration (validation) Crop models generate data within the range recorded by MAPYA Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

34 soil groups specific profiles Soil data base: PROMES land-grids CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography

Species/cvs for season discrimination Autumn-winter-spring for winter (cv. Marius) and spring wheat (cv. Anza) rainfed and irrigated (ETmax) Sow. 15 october Spring-summer maize (irrigated) Sow. 15 April; 15 May; 1 June Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Filters Varieties (CVs) with different cold requirements for flower induction: spring (Anza) vs winter (Marius) cultivars enhancing the important differences in T (Tmin) in winter Winter wheat: vernalization needs have to be fulfilled. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Simulations Current: A2 or B2: Outputs: average of 30 years (current & A2 or B2) Results are presented in maps: A2 or B2/Current (%) or Relative Yield (%) Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

REMO winter wheat rain-fed CERES A2/crtl Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

REMO winter wheat irrigated CERES A2/crtl Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

HadAM3H A2 driving conditions Relative yield CERES- Spring Wheat (DSSAT) Irrigated Sowing date: 15 october Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

HadAM3H (HC) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

RegCM (ICTP) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

CHRM (ETH) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

RACMO (KNMI) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

Arpège CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

CLM (GKSS) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

HadRM3H (HadleyC) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

REMO (MPI) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

PROMES (UCM) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

HIRHAM (DMI) CERES-Spring Wheat Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Irrigated A2

Crop model Differences between the two crop models outputs exist: CERES-DSSAT discriminates more among polygons Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Changes in irrigation requirements for maize A2 PROMES B2 Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

MAIZE irrigated (kg/ha) HIRHAMHIRHAM high CórdobaAvgCVAvgCV Xerorthent Control A Rel(%)3382 Chromoxerert Control A Rel(%) km vs 25 km Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Some conclusions Regions/areas show similar yield trends in many RCM models Influence in rainfed crops of Tmin vs rainfall All models detect winter vs spring wheat Higher resolution: more differences among soil polygons Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

Still working on: A2, B2 scenarios 50 km vs 25 km (grid) Other forcings: try different GCMs with the same RCM. THANK YOU Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov. 2004

SpWheat Kg/ha SRHadAM3HPROMESRegCM MCVM M Navarra 42ºN 500 m 2074 (53) Ctl A B Valladolid 41º N 400 m 1533 (60) Ctl A B Córdoba 38ºN 120 m 3047 (39) Ctl A B CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva Nov Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography