Integrated Assessment Modeling, cost-effectiveness, and agricultural projections in the RAINS model Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg, Austria Inventory and Projections Experts Workshop 27 th -28 th February, 2003, Copenhagen

Cost-effectiveness needs integration Economic/energy development (projections) State of emission controls, available technologies, costs Atmospheric processes Environmental sensitivities

The model: RAINS developed by IIASA ( Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs

Optimization based upon... Some sources are more strongly linked than others via the atmosphere to sensitive receptors (as indicated by the source-receptor relationships) Some sources are cheaper to control than others (as indicated by the cost curves)

The model: RAINS developed by IIASA ( Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs OPTIMIZATION

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

Policy applications of RAINS 1994: Second Sulfur Protocol of UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) 1997: EU Acidification Strategy 1999: Proposal for EU Directive on National Emission Ceilings (NEC Directive in 2001) 1999: Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone of CLRTAP

RAINS - Agricultural module (NH 3, PM, N 2 O, CH 4 ) Emission factor Livestock (base year and forecasts) Fertilizers (base year, forecasts) Housing period Volatilization rate, etc. % N loss Control strategies Emissions and Costs Farm size Excretion rate and volume Current practice Legend: - Data asked for - Data available from guidebooks - Data assumed in the model but available for review - Result of calculation Manure system Abatement technologies (efficiency, costs, etc.) Other activities (base year, forecasts) Emission factor Climatic zone Soil type

RAINS – Basic characteristics Agricultural module part of the IAM framework Activity databases for 1990, 1995, 2000,…2020, All data on a country level, covering most of the European countries, Several ammonia abatement options available, Estimates national emissions of NH 3, N 2 O, CH 4 and PM for a range of sources (~20 categories).

Emission categories Dairy cows (liquid and solid waste systems), Other cattle (liquid and solid waste systems), Pigs (liquid and solid waste systems), Laying hens, Other poultry, Sheep and goats, Fur animals, Horses, Fertilizer use (Urea, Other N-fertilizers), Fertilizer production, Waste treatment and disposal, Residential combustion, Industrial combustion, Transport, Other.

Data sources Historical data Statistics (e.g., FAO, EUROSTAT, IFA, OECD, national) Communication with national experts, Own assessments. Forecasts Agricultural models (e.g., CAPRI), Commission forecasts (DG AGRI), Countries’ submissions, Other organizations’ forecasts (FAO, EFMA, OECD, etc.), Own assessments.

Documentation Methodology papers Latest databases All scenario analyses, interim reports to ECE and EU On-line model (web version) available at

RAINS model and projections Activity data projections are not generated in RAINS, RAINS is a “user” of provided [and accepted] projections, although, RAINS user can prepare her/his own projections, User’s projections can be used to analyze alternative scenarios.