Issues and Opportunities in the Mexican Energy Sector Presented by: Alejandro Dieck Profesor of Graduate School of Government at I.T.E.S.M

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Presentation transcript:

Issues and Opportunities in the Mexican Energy Sector Presented by: Alejandro Dieck Profesor of Graduate School of Government at I.T.E.S.M Oct 12th,2007 Cancún, Quintanaroo.

CONTENT INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION WHAT’S AHEAD? WHAT’S AHEAD? IS THE OUTLOOK REALLY BRIGHT? IS THE OUTLOOK REALLY BRIGHT?

INTRODUCTION BudgetLimitationsCreative Models for PS ParticipationUnderInvestmentR&DActivities 80’s and mid 90’s YesNoHighLimited Late 90’s and beyond YesYesModerateLimited THE ENERGY SECTOR IN MEXICO: THE INVESTMENT ALLOCATION

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

WHAT’S AHEAD? (Minor) Structural Reforms Energy Efficiency Renewable Sources (Major) Structural Reforms Which are the (relevant) drivers that will push growth in the sector?

WHAT’S AHEAD? Constitutional Changes Improve Investors Confidence and Certainty (Major) Structural Reforms

WHAT’S AHEAD? Kyoto Protocol: CER’S of CO 2 Incentives to Improve Portfolio: LAFRE Renewable Sources

WHAT’S AHEAD? Ample Opportunities CONAE/FIDE: Insufficient Resources Energy Efficiency

WHAT’S AHEAD? PEMEX Autonomy of Management Concessions for Marginal Petroleum Fields (Minor) Structural Reforms Private Sector Participation in exploration & production of non Associated Gas Private Sector Participation in Exploration and Production in Deep Waters Private Sector Participation in Oil Refining Strengthening the Energy Regulatory Commission Renewable Sources of Energy Unitization of Transborder Reserves

IS THE OUTLOOK REALLY BRIGHT? BEYOND 06 CREATIVE MODELS FOR PRIVATE LimitedAvailability Fully Availability Fully Availability New Models. STABILIZATION DIVIDENDS NoneAvailable Fully Available SOVEREIGN CREDIT RISK Bad Initial Stages Investment Grade Maturity (MINOR) STRUCTURAL REFORMSNonAvailableNonAvailableComing (MAJOR) STRUCTURAL REFORMSNonAvailableNonAvailable? PRICE ENVIROMENT UnfavorableGood Expected Better

Issues and Opportunities in the Mexican Energy Sector Presented by: Alejandro Dieck Profesor of Graduate School of Government at I.T.E.S.M Oct 12th,2007 Cancún, Quintanaroo.