Economic Prosperity and Resilience In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. April 2011 – UN Dialogue on “Harmony with Nature”

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Prosperity and Resilience In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. April 2011 – UN Dialogue on “Harmony with Nature”

Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors

Global Footprint = 1.5 Global Biocapacity Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors

The Ecological Footprint CARBON footprint

Biocapacity: How much bioproductive area is available to us? Ecological Footprint: How much bioproductive area do we demand? Accounting Framework for Ecological Services

The Basic Equation Amount per year Area = Yield Translate area from ha into global ha…

Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint

Biocapacity per person Italy

Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit Italy’s relative GDP per capita (compared to World)

A special report on debt Re: A better way The rich world should worry about growth- promoting reforms more than short-term fiscal austerity

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA, HU DKAT DE ES RO SE CH IT PT NL FR PO GR RU BE FI UK IR SK CZ BY RS UA

Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards) Annual deficit adds up to a global biocapacity debt

UN’s Most Moderate Scenario Mathis’ life

Preparing for resource constraints is in the most direct self-interest of cities and countries. (much more so than for individuals or companies…)

we’re working on national govs offical national gov Footprint studies (2011) WBCSD UNDP EP and EC UNEP Green Econ. SEEA (?)

Summary The planet has limits. Do you know how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use? Blindness costs lives & opportunities. Link to economic stability and competitiveness

Ecological Footprint per person Biocapacity per person Deficit ITALY 2007

/ = PER CAPITA ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT (DEMAND) PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION RESOURCE EFFICIENCY DIFFERENCE BETW. BIOCAPACITY DEMAND AND BIOCAP. SUPPLY PER CAPITA BIOCAPACITY (SUPPLY) x AREA BIO- PRODUCTIVITY / POPULATION = Five Factors

WBCSD Vision Who’s in? 24WBCSD Vision 2050

Measuring “sustainable development” development  HDI  Sustainable (fits on one planet?)

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA, MW CGAO Alge. CI SD ZM UG ML NE MG ET MZ KE SN BF GH ZA MA EG NG CM TZ ZW

Biocapacity Ecological Footprint Shrinking Biocapacity Credit Increasing Ecological and Social Instability

15 Sustainability wedges for ending overshoot by 2050 (WBCSD)

MRIO (GTAP7 based) covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions) Consumption – break down national total into 57 consumption categories Import – which countries do these 57 cats come from? Export – in which countries do exports get consumed? NEW!