Metro Vision 2035 Regional Growth Scenarios

Scenario Workshop

Scenario Purpose Educational process –“what if” analysis What happens to some of Metro Vision’s key assumptions –Food for thought To guide the Board and its committees as they craft the 2035 plan

2030 Urban Growth Boundary/Area and 2004 Urban Area 2030 UGB/A 2004 Urbanized Area

Urban Centers Activity Centers Mixed Use Centers Regional Corridors

Themes Discussed Land use variations Transportation variations Pricing variations

Measures Long list Measures selected Measures not selected

12 Measures Transportation –Vehicle miles traveled –Transit Trips –Vehicle hours of delay –Access to Transit (EJ)

12 Measures Land Use –Additional land used for development –Households and jobs near transit –Public infrastructure costs –Population and jobs in urban centers –Population and jobs in the Denver CBD

12 Measures Environmental –Air pollutant emissions –Water demand –Wastewater treatment impact

Scenario Descriptions

Policy dimensions Urban Footprint Transportation Investment Priorities CompactExpanded Highways Transit

The Scenarios Six scenarios covering key parts of this “policy space”

Policy dimensions Urban Footprint Transportation Investment Priorities CompactExpanded Highways Transit D ABC E F

Scenario B: Metro Vision Trend Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas Roads Transit Urban footprint (2030) Urban footprint (2035)

Scenario A: Compact Urban Footprint No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban footprint (2030 and 2035) No change to roads and transit in 2030 plan Roads Transit

Scenario C: Expanded Urban Footprint Larger increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Roads Transit Urban footprint (2030) Urban footprint (2035) Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas

Scenario D: Metro Vision Trend Plus Highways Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban footprint (2030) Add highway improvements to 2030 transportation plan Highway improvements Roads Urban footprint (2035)

Scenario E: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035) Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan Roads Transit Transit Improvements

Scenario F: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit Plus Pricing Double driving costs and make transit free No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB) Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035) Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan Roads Transit Transit Improvements

Emerging Themes

Themes/messages Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and congestion will increase substantially compared to today –Adding 1.56 M more people! Some scenario outcomes can only be achieved with additional transportation investment

Themes/Messages Transportation performance improves in scenarios with more compact development –More development in urban centers –More transit use –More bike/pedestrian trips –Shorter trip lengths for autos

Themes/Messages Expanding the region’s “footprint” without new transportation funding is problematic –Development extends to the fringes –Have only 2030 RTP to accommodate this growth The growth overloads key facilities –C-470, I-70 East, I-25 North, etc.

Themes/Messages We can reduce delay if we invest additional funding in highway infrastructure This will also increase total Vehicle Miles Traveled

Themes/Messages If the growth area is constrained, investing in more transit capacity does not make a significant difference (A vs. E) –The 2030 RTP transit network already serves the 2030 UGB/A well –Lines and services added in E serve smaller markets –The return on this additional investment is marginal

Themes/Messages Pricing (Scenario F) results in the most significant decrease in hours of delay Pricing increases transit ridership substantially by changing behavior –But at what price?

Policy dimensions Urban Footprint Transportation Investment Priorities CompactExpanded Highways Transit D ABC E F

Data Descriptions

Transportation Vehicle miles traveled Transit Trips Vehicle hours of delay Access to Transit (EJ)

Environmental Air pollutant emissions Water demand Wastewater treatment impact

Land Use Additional land used for development Households and jobs near transit Public infrastructure costs Population and jobs in urban centers Population and jobs in the Denver CBD

Land Use Transportation Environment Worse Better

Scenario B: Metro Vision Trend Land Use Transportation Environment B Metro Vision Trend B

Scenario A: Compact Urban Footprint Land Use Transportation Environment Compact Urban Footprint Metro Vision Trend A B A B

Scenario C: Expanded Urban Footprint Land Use Transportation Environment Expanded Urban Footprint Metro Vision Trend C B B C

Scenario D: Metro Vision Trend + Highways Land Use Transportation Environment Metro Vision Trend + Highways Metro Vision Trend D B B D

Scenario E: Compact Urban Footprint + Transit Land Use Transportation Environment Compact Urban Footprint Metro Vision Trend A B Compact Urban Footprint +Transit E A B E

Scenario F: Compact Urban Footprint + Transit + Pricing Land Use Transportation Environment Compact Urban Footprint Metro Vision Trend A B Compact Urban Footprint + Transit E Compact Urban Footprint + Transit + Pricing F A B E F

Questions?

Next Steps

Plan Process 2035 Update Committee –UGB target –Criteria for UGB consideration TAC –Transportation facility criteria Draft plan in June Board action in December